Specifying and Forecasting Space Weather Threats to Human Technology

Abstract

Adverse space weather is one of the principal threats to modern human technology. Solar coronal mass ejections, large solar flares, and high-speed solar wind streams often lead to sequences of damaging disturbances within the Earth’s magnetosphere, in the atmosphere, and even on the Earth’s surface. Powerful geomagnetic storms can develop following solar disturbances and enhancements of energetic particle populations throughout the outer terrestrial radiation zone can subsequently result. High-energy particles can damage satellite solar power panels, confuse optical trackers, and deposit harmful charges into sensitive electronic components. Extreme solar, geomagnetic and solar wind conditions are often observed by a large array of international satellites and ground-based sensors. We discuss several of the types of space weather-related problems that have been identified in recent years. We present examples of space weather-induced spacecraft anomalies and failures. Recently developed models for specifying and forecasting high-energy electron enhancements throughout the Earth’s radiation belts are discussed. Present models can be used to specify accurately the electron population anywhere in the outer radiation zone and can also provide several-day prediction of this dangerous environmental hazard. An important component of the present community effort has been to establish an NSF-sponsored Science and Technology Center called CISM (Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling). This Center will develop coupled models from the sun to the Earth’s atmosphere.