Abstract
This chapter continues the discussion of Chapter 3 in which regressions for male and female mortality for ages 40 and above in the Netherlands were estimated. A naive forecast of mortality can be obtained by extrapolation. However, a plausible forecast may require modification of the fitted model to obtain what is called a predictive model. A model of this sort is described and the resulting forecasts of period and cohort life expectancy and log(odds) are compared with those produced by extrapolations of the descriptive model. Period and cohort life expectancy for selected ages above 40 and for selected years to 2050 are given. A final section discusses the forecasts obtained from regression models using the perspective of the official national forecasts of Dutch mortality.
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© 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Heathcote, C., Higgins, T. (2001). Forecasting Mortality from Regression Models: The Case of the Netherlands. In: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths, A., Heathcote, C. (eds) Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. European Studies of Population, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-0-7923-6833-5
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