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Mortality Models Incorporating Theoretical Concepts of Ageing

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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Part of the book series: European Studies of Population ((ESPO,volume 9))

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Abstract

Among the basic attributes of ageing, heterogeneity, homeostasis and stochasticity were studied extensively in the second half of the 20th century. A selection of mortality models developed on the basis of these attributes are reviewed in this chapter, including older as well as more recent concepts. The older models of vitality, fixed heterogeneity and debilitation, being unsuitable for practical use, proved to be appropriate for testing simple hypotheses about the importance of certain factors for survival. In contrast, the more recent models of changing frailty, and in particular the stochastic process models of mortality, allow an explicit description of the physiological mechanisms of ageing. These models also appeared to be successful in complex applications. Irrespective of when they were devised, the models of evolutionary theories of ageing are less certain in their conclusions than any other models mentioned above. However, all models discussed here have contributed to improvements in our understanding of age patterns of mortality. Some of them (i.e. changing frailty and stochastic process models) can be safely recommended as a tool for both the justification and the prediction of mortality changes in the future.

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Authors
  1. Anatoli Yashin
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands

    Ewa Tabeau

  2. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Anneke van den Berg Jeths

  3. Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Christopher Heathcote

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© 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Yashin, A. (2001). Mortality Models Incorporating Theoretical Concepts of Ageing. In: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths, A., Heathcote, C. (eds) Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. European Studies of Population, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_11

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_11

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-7923-6833-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-0-306-47562-7

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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