Abstract
A number of reports of serial position effects have been criticized for displaying less than the variance that would be expected on the basis of the binomial theorem. The statistical evidence cited in support of this claim is reviewed and found to be far from conclusive. At least three problems with this statistical evidence are noted. First, typical patterns of variance in studies of serial position effects, which had not previously been established, are at odds with those predicted by the binomial theorem. Second, according to statistical theory, the variance observed in any particular study should not necessarily equal the variance predicted by the binomial theorem, and may do so only under a very limited number of conditions. Third, the assumptions underlying the binomial model have been violated in applications to data from experiments on serial position effects, causing severe and systematic error in the estimation of expected variance. Given that the burden of proof falls on those claiming that evidence from some experiments on nonhuman serial position performance is flawed, the doubts raised over their supporting evidence indicate that it would be prudent to suspend judgments regarding such claims pending further empirical data.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bolhuis, J. J., &van Kampen, H. S. (1988). Serial position curves in spatial memory of rats.Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,40B, 135–149.
Budfscu, D. V. (1985). Analysis of dichotomous variables in the presence of serial dependence.Psychological Bulletin.97, 547–561.
David, F. N. (1949).Probability theory for statistical methods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Fersen, L. von, Wynne, C. D. L., Delius, J. D., &Staddon, J. E. R. (1991). Transitive inference in pigeons.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes,17, 334–341.
Gaffan, E. A. (1992). Primacy, recency, and the variability of data in studies of animals’ working memory.Animal Learning & Behavior,20, 240–252.
Gaffan, E. A., &Gaffan, D. (1992). Less than expected variability in evidence for primacy and recency effects in rats’ nonspatial memory.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes,18, 289–301.
Geiringer, H. (1942). A new explanation of nonnormal dispersion in the Lexis theory.Ecconometrica,10, 53–60.
Gillan, D. J. (1981). Reasoning in the chimpanzee: II. Transitive inference.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes,7, 150–164.
Good, M. (1987). The effects of hippocampal-area parahippocampalis lesions on discrimination learning in the pigeon.Behavioural & Brain Research,26, 171–184.
Hayes, W. L. (1988).Statistics (4th ed.). London: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
Kesner, R. P., &Novak, J. M. (1982). Serial position curve in rats: Role of the dorsal hippocampus.Science,218, 173–175.
Klotz, J. (1973). Statistical inference in Bernoulli trials with dependence.Annals of Statistics,1, 373–379.
Lexis, W. (1887).Zur Theorie der Massenerscheinungen in der Menschlichen [The theory of variations in large groups], Freiburg: Gesellschaft.
Mises, R. von (1964).Mathematical theory of probability and statistics. London: Academic Press.
O’Brien, R. G., &Kaiser, M. K. (1985). MANOVA method for analyzing repeated measures designs: An extensive primer.Psychological Bulletin,97, 316–333.
Olton, D. S. (1982). Staying and shifting: Their effects on discrimination learning. In M. L. Commons, R. J. Herrnstein, & H. Rachlin (Eds.),Quantitative analyses of behavior: Vol. 2. Matching and maximizing accounts (pp. 205–225), Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
Rawlins, J. N. P., Deacon, R. M. J., Chih-Ta, T., &Aggleton, J. P. (1992). Doubts concerning primacy in rats’ nonspatial recognition memory: A reply to Gaffan and Gaffan.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes,18, 302–304.
Reed, P. (1992). Fewer doubts concerning rats’ serial position performance: A reply to Gaffan and Gaffan, and Rawlins, Deacon, Chih-Ta, and Aggleton.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes,18, 305–307.
Reed, P., Chih-Ta, T., Aggleton, J. P., &Rawlins, J. N. P. (1991). Primacy, recency, and the von Restorff effect in rats’ nonspatial recognition memory.Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior,17, 402–407.
Roderts, S. (1987). Less-than-expected variability in evidence for three stages in memory formation.Behavioral Neuroscience,101, 120–125.
Roberts, W. A., &Kraemer, P. J. (1981). Recognition memory for lists of visual stimuli in monkeys and humans.Animal Learning & Behavior,9, 587–594.
Shimp, C. P. (1976). Short-term memory in the pigeon: Relative recency.Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior,25, 55–61.
Smith, M. H., &Stearns, E. G. (1949). The influence of isolation on the learning of surrounding materials.American Journal of Psychology,9, 369–381.
Thomas, G. V., &Reed, P. (1993).Marking and the von Restorff effect in human serial list learning. Manuscript submitted for publication.
Wright, H. (1993).Serial position effects in human recognition memory for olfactory stimuli. Manuscript submitted for publication.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Reed, P. Less than expected variance in studies of serial position effects is not a sufficient reason for caution. Animal Learning & Behavior 22, 224–230 (1994). https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03199924
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03199924