Skip to main content
Log in

Efficient on-line estimation of autoregressive parameters

  • Published:
Mathematical Methods of Statistics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

New procedures for estimating autoregressive parameters in AR(m) models are proposed. The proposed method allows for incorporation of auxiliary information into the estimation process and produces estimation procedures, which are consistent and asymptotically efficient under certain regularity conditions. Also, these procedures are naturally on-line and do not require storing all the data. Theoretical results are presented in the case when m = 1. Two important particular cases are considered in detail: linear procedures and likelihood procedures with the LS truncations. A specific example is also presented to briefly discuss some practical aspects of applications of the procedures of this type.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. K. K. R. Aase, “Recursive Estimators in Nonlinear Time Series Models of Autoregressive Type”, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Ser. B 45, 228–237 (1983).

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  2. I.V. Basawa and B. L. S. Prakasa Rao, Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes (Springer, New York, 1980).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. E. Belitser, “Recursive Estimation of the Drifted Autoregressive Parameter”, Ann. Statist. 28, 860–870 (2000).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  4. K. Campbell, “Recursive Computation of M-Estimates for the Parameters of a Finite Autoregressive Process”, Ann. Statist. 10, 442–453 (1982).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  5. J. Dippon, “Globally Convergent Stochastic Optimization with Optimal Asymptotic Distribution”, J. Appl. Probab. 35, 395–406 (1998).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  6. J.-E. Englund, U. Holst, and D. Ruppert, “Recursive Estimators for Stationary, Strong Mixing Processes—a Representation Theorem and Asymptotic Distributions”, Stochastic Processes Appl. 31, 203–222 (1989).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. V. Fabian, “On Asymptotically Efficient Recursive Estimation”, Ann. Statist. 6, 854–867 (1978).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  8. M. G. Gu and S. Li, “A Stochastic Approximation Algorithm for Maximum-Likelihoood Estimation with Incomplete Data”, Canad. J. Statist. 26, 567–582 (1998).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  9. R. Z. Khas’minskii and M. B. Nevelson, Stochastic Approximation and Recursive Estimation (Nauka, Moscow, 1972).

    Google Scholar 

  10. T. L. Lai, “Stochastic Approximation”, Ann. Statist. 31, 391–406 (2003).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  11. N. Lazrieva, T. Sharia, and T. Toronjadze, “The Robbins-Monro Type Stochastic Differential Equations. I. Convergence of Solutions”, Stochastics and Stochastic Reports 61, 67–87 (1997).

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  12. N. Lazrieva and T. Toronjadze, “Ito-Ventzel’s Formula for Semimartingales, Asymptotic Properties of MLE and Recursive Estimation”, in Lect. Notes in Control and Inform. Sciences, Vol. 96: Stochast. Diff. Systems, Ed. by H. J. Engelbert and W. Schmidt (Springer, 1987), pp. 346–355.

  13. S. L. Leonov, “On Recurrent Estimation of Autoregression Parameters”, Avtomatika i Telemekhanika 5, 105–116 (1988).

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  14. L. Ljung, G. Pflug, and H. Walk, Stochastic Approximation and Optimization of Random Systems (Birkhäuser, Basel, 1992).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. L. Ljung and T. Soderstrom, Theory and Practice of Recursive Identification (MIT Press, 1987).

  16. H. Robbins and S. Monro, “A Stochastic Approximation Method”, Ann. Statist. 22, 400–407 (1951).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  17. H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, “A Convergence Theorem for Nonnegative Almost Supermartingales and Some Applications”, in Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Ed. by J. S. Rustagi (Academic Press, New York, 1971), 233–257.

    Google Scholar 

  18. T. Sharia, “Truncated Recursive Estimation Procedures”, Proc. A. Razmadze Math. Inst. 115, 149–159 (1997).

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  19. T. Sharia, “On the Recursive Parameter Estimation for the General Discrete Time Statistical Model”, Stochastic Processes Appl. 73(2), 151–172 (1998).

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  20. T. Sharia, “Recursive Parameter Estimation: Convergence”, Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes 11(2), 157–175 (2008).

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  21. T. Sharia, “Rate of Convergence in Recursive Parameter Estimation Procedures”, Georgian Math. J. 14(4), 721–736 (2007).

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  22. T. Sharia, “Recursive Parameter Estimation: Asymptotic Expansion”, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. (2008) (DOI: 10.1007/s10463-008-0179-z).

  23. A. N. Shiryayev, Probability (Springer, New York, 1984).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to T. Sharia.

About this article

Cite this article

Sharia, T. Efficient on-line estimation of autoregressive parameters. Math. Meth. Stat. 19, 163–186 (2010). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1066530710020055

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1066530710020055

Key words

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification

Navigation