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Reliability model assessment of grid-connected solar photovoltaic system based on Monte-Carlo

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Abstract

The rapid growth of photovoltaic PV energy utilization and the immense potential for future use dictate a need to seriously consider the reliability of PV system. In this study, the comprehensive model to assess the reliability of large-scale and grid-connected PV system was proposed, taking account of weather condition as well as critical component failure probability. In addition, the sequential Monte-Carlo simulation was also established, combining with the developed model. And this analytical approach was successfully applied to evaluate the practical PV system in western area of China. The result showed that the reliability increased as the system capacity increased. And the simulated value become more accurate when the basic model was modified by more factors, especially by weather condition. While for the fixed-capacity system, the reliability decreased periodically as the operation time prolonged, which was mainly caused by the PV modules and inverters failure probability.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China

    Haiying Wang

  2. CEPRI Science and Technology Company, Beijing, China

    Ninghui Zhu

  3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing, China

    Xiaomin Bai

Authors
  1. Haiying Wang
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  2. Ninghui Zhu
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  3. Xiaomin Bai
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Correspondence to Haiying Wang.

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Wang, H., Zhu, N. & Bai, X. Reliability model assessment of grid-connected solar photovoltaic system based on Monte-Carlo. Appl. Sol. Energy 51, 262–266 (2015). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0003701X15040192

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S0003701X15040192

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