Fluctuations in the socioeconomic development of Russian cities: Methodology and results of calculating the rank vector of dynamics

Abstract

We investigate fluctuations in the dynamics of social and economic development of 120 large cities of the Russian Federation in 2002–2011 based on statistical data on nine socioeconomic indices, such as population, average annual number of employees in organizations, average nominal monthly wages, etc. Cities are classified by types of trajectories based on rank vectors of dynamics calculated according to the author’s technique. Approaches to verifying the obtained social and economic performance index are suggested. The possible causes that have affected the trajectories of rank vectors of dynamics are considered in a case study of Vladivostok, Kazan, Kaluga, Volgodonsk, cities of Tyumen oblast, Rubtsovsk, Dzerzhinsk, Pskov, and Kyzyl. It has been concluded that the obtained data reflect reality and can be used to check different hypotheses of the influence of various factors on the dynamics of the cities. The influence of one possible factor, namely, strategic planning, on the dynamics of cities is analyzed. The well-known observation was confirmed: in modern Russia, development factors of the first nature (natural resources, geographical position) prevail over institutional factors. Strategic planning can be an additional catalyst when there are also other prerequisites for development, but it cannot break negative trends by itself.