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Governing uncertainty, producing subjectivity: from Mode I to Mode II scenarios

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Abstract

Tracing the emergence of the scenario technology and key shifts in how it is used, we argue that scenarios represent a new way of governing future uncertainty. We analyse two of the most influential approaches to the technology—those of Herman Kahn and Pierre Wack. In the first, scenarios emerge as a solution to an ontological problem of future uncertainty—a solution that seeks to use imagination as a form of reasoning about the future (Mode I scenarios). In the second, however, scenarios appear as a solution to an epistemological problem—a way of challenging and changing perceptions, of remediating one’s perception of the world and accepting its uncertainty. That is, scenarios become a way of entering into an uncertain sensibility and a particular mode of experience and practice related to and centred on uncertainty—a new mode of subjectivation. We refer to this as Mode II scenarios.

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Funding

This research was funded by the Israel Science Foundation (Grant No. 1120/19).

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  1. Federmann School of Public Policy & Government, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

    Limor Samimian-Darash & Michael Rabi

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  1. Limor Samimian-Darash
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Correspondence to Limor Samimian-Darash.

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The original online version of this article was revised: due to an error in author name “Limor Samimian-Darash” and missing funding note in the article.

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Samimian-Darash, L., Rabi, M. Governing uncertainty, producing subjectivity: from Mode I to Mode II scenarios. Subjectivity 14, 1–18 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41286-021-00116-1

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