Abstract
The worldwide network of container transport services, both on land and at sea, is becoming increasingly fine-meshed. The growth in the number of intermodal transfer points on the land side, at the sea–land interface in the seaports and at the connecting points of liner services in transhipment ports leads to an increasing number of routing options for a container flow between two regions somewhere on the globe. This increase complicates forecasting the container throughput of a port in the traditional way by linking it directly to a specific hinterland area. In the approach presented here, a port is considered as a nodal point in a network of container routings, where the routings using a certain port add up to the port's container throughput. The model presented here is intended to explain the market share of the port's routings for each of the traffic zones or regions that comprise a port's potential hinterland. Explanatory variables include transport cost, transit time, frequency of service and indicators of quality of service. A logit model is used to quantify the routing choice and to derive from that a demand function to be used for port traffic forecasting and for the economic and financial evaluation of container port projects. The authors had the opportunity to calibrate logit models in the framework of the evaluation of the Maasvlakte-2 container port expansion project in the port of Rotterdam.
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Notes
We thank Mr CJJ Eijgenraam and Mr R Saitua Nistal of the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau for their fruitful discussions on the estimation and use of the logit model.
The data set was split into a set with regions close to the ports and a set with regions further from the ports. The coefficients were estimated for each set separately. The hypothesis of a constant cost coefficient over the sets was rejected by a Chow break test.
This applies both to the transatlantic and Europe–Far East trade routes. The market share of Rotterdam in the latter is considerably greater than in the former. An explanation – going further than just ‘tradition’ – is that the port of Rotterdam is more accessible for the larger containerships on the Far East trade route than the other ports.
In fact, a supply curve was constructed representing the port capacity of the existing terminal and the new expansion as a function of costs. By increasing port throughput of the terminals, port congestion will rise within the terminal and on the quays alongside, resulting in higher costs of using the port (see CPB et al, 2001a).
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Veldman, S., Bückmann, E. A Model on Container Port Competition: An Application for the West European Container Hub-Ports. Marit Econ Logist 5, 3–22 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100058
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100058