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Terrorists versus the Sun: Desertec in North Africa as a case study for assessing risks to energy infrastructure

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Abstract

As renewable energies gain both in importance and in share of the global energy mix, questions arise as to whether they will face the same energy security challenges – such as terrorist attacks – that have confronted the oil and gas industry. This article addresses the risk of terrorism to the infrastructure associated with renewable energies and electrical power systems and transmission lines. It reviews the capacities of various risk assessment tools and analyzes the potential terrorist threat to the Desertec concept, which envisions meeting 15 per cent of Europe's electricity demand by 2050 with renewable energy sourced from the Middle East North Africa region. Some industry observers have already voiced grave concerns about potential European dependence on this region, specifically because of the presence of terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, which was responsible for the 2001 attacks in the United States. The data for the Desertec case study analysis are partly informed by a series of interviews conducted with correspondents located in Europe and in North Africa.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the reviewers and editors for their feedback and support, as well as Christine Brandstaett and Martin Palovic of the Bremer Energie Institut and Ioana Bedreaga of Jacobs University for their helpful contributions. We also express our gratitude to Franz Trieb and his colleagues at the Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt (German Aerospace Center) for allowing us to use their map of the potential transmission infrastructure connecting European demand centers and concentrated solar power sites in the Middle East North Africa region.

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  1. Jacobs University Bremen, Campus Ring 1, Bremen, 28759, Germany

    Karen Smith Stegen

  2. The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, USA

    Patrick Gilmartin

  3. Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, Germany

    Janetta Carlucci

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  1. Karen Smith Stegen
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  2. Patrick Gilmartin
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Smith Stegen, K., Gilmartin, P. & Carlucci, J. Terrorists versus the Sun: Desertec in North Africa as a case study for assessing risks to energy infrastructure. Risk Manag 14, 3–26 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1057/rm.2011.15

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