Temperature overshoot scenarios that make the 1.5 °C climate target feasible could turn into sources of political flexibility. Climate scientists must provide clear constraints on overshoot magnitude, duration and timing, to ensure accountability.
References
Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 827–835 (2016).
Rogelj, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 519–527 (2016).
Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláček, J. & Fischer, E. M. Nat. Geosci. 9, 13–18 (2016).
Sanderson, B. M., O’Neill, B. & Tebaldi, C. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 7133–7142 (2016).
Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2014).
Geden, O. WIREs Clim. Change 7, 790–797 (2016).
The Emissions Gap Report 2017 (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, 2017).
Fuss, S. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 850–853 (2014).
Ricke, K. L., Millar, R. J. & MacMartin, D. G. Sci. Rep. 7, 14743 (2017).
Vogler, J. Climate Change in World Politics (Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2015).
Geden, O. & Beck, S. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 747–748 (2014).
Bernie, D. & Lowe, J. Overshoot Scenarios and their Climate Response (AVOID, 2015).
Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F. & Hare, W. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075612 (2017).
Peters, G. P. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 646–649 (2016).
Edvardsson Björnberg, K. Energy Policy 56, 285–292 (2013).
Smith, P. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 42–50 (2016).
Zickfeld, K., Arora, V. K. & Gillett, N. P. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L05703 (2012).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Geden, O., Löschel, A. Define limits for temperature overshoot targets. Nature Geosci 10, 881–882 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0026-z
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0026-z
- Springer Nature Limited
This article is cited by
-
Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming
Nature Climate Change (2022)
-
Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions
Nature Communications (2022)
-
Balancing a budget or running a deficit? The offset regime of carbon removal and solar geoengineering under a carbon budget
Climatic Change (2021)
-
Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2020)
-
Asserting the climate benefits of the coal-to-gas shift across temporal and spatial scales
Nature Climate Change (2019)