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The attribution question

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Understanding how the overall risks of extreme events are changing in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in the atmospheric circulation.

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Figure 1: Simple chaotic Lorenz 1963 model with added forcing.
Figure 2: Return time plots for the maximum four-day precipitation average during May–Jun for the upper Elbe catchment.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Friederike E. L. Otto and Myles R. Allen are at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK,

    Friederike E. L. Otto & Myles R. Allen

  2. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Jonathan Eden are at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), PO Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, the Netherlands,

    Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & Jonathan Eden

  3. Peter A. Stott is at Climate Monitoring and Attribution, Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK,

    Peter A. Stott

  4. David J. Karoly is at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia, and,

    David J. Karoly

  5. Department of Physics, Myles R. Allen is also at Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK,

    Myles R. Allen

Authors
  1. Friederike E. L. Otto
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  2. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
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  3. Jonathan Eden
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  4. Peter A. Stott
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  5. David J. Karoly
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  6. Myles R. Allen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Friederike E. L. Otto.

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Otto, F., van Oldenborgh, G., Eden, J. et al. The attribution question. Nature Clim Change 6, 813–816 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3089

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