Abstract
A global assessment of the potential impact of climate change on world food supply suggests that doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a small decrease in global crop production. But developing countries are likely to bear the brunt of the problem, and simulations of the effect of adaptive measures by farmers imply that these will do little to reduce the disparity between developed and developing countries.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R. & Konijn, N. T. (eds) The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture Vols 1 & (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1988).
Adams, R. M. et al. Nature 345, 219–224 (1990).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment (eds Tegart, W. J. McG., Sheldon, G. W. & Griffiths, D.C.) (Aust. Govt Publishing Serv., Canberra, 1990).
Kane, S., Reilly, J. & Tobey, J. Report AER-No. 647 (US Dept of Agric. Econ, Res. Serv., Washington DC, 1991).
Reilly, J. & Hohmann, N. Am. econ. Ass. Pap. Proc. 83, 306–312 (1993).
Rosenzweig, C. & Iglesias, A. (eds) Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, in the press).
Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
IPCC Climate Change 1992 (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Varney, S. K.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).
Acock, B. & Allen, L. H. Jr in Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation (eds Strain, B. R. & Cure, J. D.) 33–97 (US Dept. of Energy DOE/ER-0238, Washington DC, 1985).
Cure, J. D. & Acock, B. Agric. For. Met. 38, 127–145 (1986).
Hansen, J., J. geophys. Res. 93, 9341–9364 (1988).
International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer (IBSNAT) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 2.1 (DSSAT V2.1) (Dept Agron. & Soil Sci., Coll. Trap. Agric. & Hum. Resources, Univ. Hawaii, Honolulu, 1989).
Peart, R. M., Jones, J. W., Curry, R. B., Boote, K. & Allen, L. H. Jr. in The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. Appendix C Vol. 1 (eds Smith, J. B. & Tirpak, D. A.) (US Envir. Protection Ag., Washington DC, 1989).
Rogers, H. H., Bingham, G. E., Cure, J. D., Smith, J. M. & Surano, K. A. J. envir. Qual. 12, 569–574 (1983).
Fischer, G., Frohberg, K., Keyzer, M. A. & Parikh, K. S. Linked National Models: A Tool for International Food Policy Analysis (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1988).
Food and Agriculture Organization Fourth World Food Survey. (UN, Rome, 1984); Fifth World Food Survey (UN, Rome, 1987).
United Nations World Population Prospects 1988 (UN, New York, 1989).
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank World Population Projections (Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, Baltimore, 1990).
AGROSTAT/PC (Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations, Rome, 1991).
Hansen, J. et al. Mon. Weath. Rev. 111(4), 609–662 (1983).
Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T. J. atmos. Sci. 44, 1211–1235 (1987).
Wilson, C. A. & Mitchell, J. F. B. J. geophys. Res. 92(13), 315–343 (1987).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rosenzweig, C., Parry, M. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367, 133–138 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1038/367133a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/367133a0
- Springer Nature Limited
This article is cited by
-
Anthropogenic climate change accelerating monsoon hydrological hazards in Northeastern Himalayan region of India: geospatial approach
Arabian Journal of Geosciences (2024)
-
Modeling the impacts of projected climate change on wheat crop suitability in semi-arid regions using the AHP-based weighted climatic suitability index and CMIP6
Geoscience Letters (2023)
-
An investigation into the public acceptance in China of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2023)
-
Sustainable Husbandry?—A Comparative LCA of Three Lamb Breeding Systems in Turkey
Circular Economy and Sustainability (2023)
-
Investigations on the hydrological impacts of climate change on a river basin using macroscale model H08
Journal of Earth System Science (2023)