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Power laws

Are hospital waiting lists self-regulating?

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Abstract

We have discovered that waiting lists to see hospital consultants are subject to the power laws of complexity theory, and so are likely to be an essential symptom of an efficient healthcare service. Like other complex networks, both privately and publicly funded healthcare systems probably organize themselves in such a way as to reduce the impact of any attempted intervention. They self-regulate to buffer against differing levels of demand, thereby creating bottomless pits that absorb all resources made available. It seems that we would be wiser to judge the system by measuring the overall quality of medical care, rather than by the length of hospital waiting lists.

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Figure 1: Monthly waiting-list variations are shown for four consultants (represented by different symbols) over a six-year period.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre of Evidence-Based Dermatology, Queen's Medical Centre, University Hospital, Nottingham, UK, NG7 2UH

    D. P. Smethurst & H. C. Williams

Authors
  1. D. P. Smethurst
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  2. H. C. Williams
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Correspondence to D. P. Smethurst.

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Smethurst, D., Williams, H. Are hospital waiting lists self-regulating?. Nature 410, 652–653 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35070647

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/35070647

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