Skip to main content
Log in

Reducing the Hindsight Bias Utilizing Attorney Closing Arguments

  • Published:
Law and Human Behavior

Abstract

In the legal system, jurors are asked to render a decision after the event in question has already occurred and the final outcome, typically negative, is known. This “after-the-fact” structure of the legal system makes jurors susceptible to a human judgment phenomenon known as hindsight bias. This study focused on reducing hindsight bias in a courtroom context by incorporating a debiasing strategy within the defense's closing argument. Subjects viewed one of three videotaped versions of plaintiff and defense closing arguments in a commercial litigation case (i.e., foresight condition, hindsight condition, and hindsight debiasing condition). Results indicate that the hindsight debiasing strategy was effective in reducing subject-juror hindsight bias.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  • Agans, R. P., & Shaffer, L. S. (1994). The hindsight bias: The role of the availability heuristic and perceived risk. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 15, 439–449.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arkes, H. R. (1989). Principles in judgment/decision making research pertinent to legal proceedings. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 7, 429–456.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 486–498.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arkes, H. R., Guilmette, T. J., Faust, D., & Hart, K. (1988). Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 305–307.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caplan, R. A., Posner, K. L., & Cheney, F. W. (1991). Effect of outcome on physician judgments of appropriateness of care. JAMA, 265, 1957–1960.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Casper, J. D., Benedict, K., & Kelly, J. R. (1988). Cognition, attitudes and decision-making in search and seizure cases. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18, 93–113.

    Google Scholar 

  • Casper, J. D., Benedict, K., & Perry, J. L. (1989). Juror decision making, attitudes, and the hindsight bias. Law and Human Behavior, 13, 291–310.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, J. (1977). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112, 155–159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davies, M. F. (1987). Reduction of hindsight bias by restoration of foresight perspective: Effectiveness of foresight-encoding and hindsight-retrieval strategies. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 40, 50–68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Devitt, E. J., Blackmar, C. B., & Wolff, M. A. (1987). Federal jury practice and instructions: Civil. (4th. ed.). St. Paul, MN: West Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B. (1977). Perceived informativeness of facts. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349–358.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422–444). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311–327.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamin, K. A., & Rachlinski, J. J. (1995). Ex post ≠ ex ante: Determining liability in hindsight. Law and Human Behavior, 19, 89–104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lord, C. G., Lepper, M. R., & Preston, E. (1984). Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 47, 1231–1243.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lowe, D. J. (1992). An empirical examination of the hindsight bias phenomenon in evaluation of auditor decisions. (Doctoral dissertation, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (1992). Available from Dissertation Abstracts International, 53(07), A2444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pitera-Stallard, M. J. (1996). When jurors use the past to decide the future: A study to reduce hindsight bias in the courtroom. (Doctoral dissertation, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (1996). Available from Dissertation Abstracts International, 58(03), A9541447.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sand, L. B., Siffert, J. S., Loughlin, W. P., Reiss, S. A., & Batterman, N. (1997). Modern federal jury instructions (Vol. 4). San Francisco: Matthew Bender & Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schkade, D. A., & Kilbourne, L. M. (1991). Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 105–123.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 3–20). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wasserman, D., Lempert, R. O., & Hastie, R. (1991). Hindsight and causality. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 92, 683–700.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weir, S. S., Curtis, P., & McNutt, R. A. (1990). Expert testimony based on decision analysis: A malpractice case report. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 5, 406–409.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Wexler, D. B., & Schopp, R. F. (1989). How and when to correct for juror hindsight bias in mental health malpractice litigation: Some preliminary observations. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 7, 485–504.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood, G. (1978). The knew-it-all-along effect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 345–353.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wrightsman, L. S. (1991). Psychology and the legal system. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Debra L. Worthington.

About this article

Cite this article

Stallard, M.J., Worthington, D.L. Reducing the Hindsight Bias Utilizing Attorney Closing Arguments. Law Hum Behav 22, 671–683 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1025706823554

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1025706823554

Keywords

Navigation