Abstract
A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even–odd sunspot pairs (22–23 and 24–25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5±23.5) is estimated from our results.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Antoine, J. P.: 1999, in J. C. Van der Berg (ed.), Wavelet in Physics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 453.
Babcock, H. W. J.: 1961, Astrophys. J. 133, 572.
Beer, J., Tovias, S., and Weiss, N.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 237.
De Mayer, F.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 201.
Duhau, S. and Chen C. Y.: 2000, Anales Asociación Física Argentina 11, 321.
Duhau, S. and Chen, C. Y.: 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 6-1.
Duhau, S., Martinez E. A., and Hurtado de Mendoza, D.: 1997, Actas 19a Reunion Cientifica de Geofisica y Geodesia, 86.
Durney, B.: 2000, Solar Phys. 196, 421.
Eddy, J. A.: 1976, Science 192, 1189.
Feynman, J. and Gabriel, S.: 1990, Solar Phys. 127, 393.
Hoyt, D. and Schatten, K. H.: 1997, The Role of the Sun in Climate Change, Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 279.
Gleissberg W.: 1966, J. British Astron. Soc. 76, 265.
Gnevyshev, M. N. and Ohl, A. I.: 1948, Astron. Zh. 25, 18.
Gregg, D. P.: 1984, Solar Phys. 90, 185.
Knobloch, E, Tobias, S. M. and Weiss, N. O.: 1998, Monthly Notices Royal Astron. Soc. 297, 1123.
Komitov, B. and Bonev, B.: 2001, Atrophys. J. 554, L119.
Layden, A. C., Fox, P. A., Howard, J. M., Sarajedini, A., Schatten, K. H., and Sofia, S.: 1991, Solar Phys. 132, 1.
Legrand, J. P. and Simon, P. A.: 1991, Solar Phys. 131, 187.
Lockwood, M., Stamper, R., and Wild, M. N.: 1999, Nature 399, 437.
Lorenz, E.: 1993, The Essence of Chaos, University Washington Press, Washington.
Nevanlinna, H. and Kataja, E.: 1993, Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2703.
Oliver, R., Ballester, J. L., and Baudin, F.: 1998, Nature 394, 552.
Rioul, O. and Vetterli, M.: 1991, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, 14.
Russell, C. T.: 1975, Solar Phys. 42, 259.
Salakhutdinova, J. I.: 1999, Solar Phys. 188, 377.
Schatten, K. H., Scherrer, P. H., Svalgaard, L., and Wilcox, J. M.: 1978, Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, 411.
Schove, D. J.: 1955, J. Geophys. Res. 60, 127.
Stuiver, M. and Braziunas, T. F.: 1988, in F. R. Stephenson and A. Wolfendale (eds.) Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Holland, p. 245.
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: 1998, Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 79, 61.
Vennerstroem, S.: 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 69.
Weiss, N. O.: 1988, in F. R. Stephenson and A. Wolfendale (eds.) Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Holland, p. 69.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Duhau, S. An Early Prediction of Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24. Solar Physics 213, 203–212 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023260916825