Skip to main content
Log in

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Shoreline Wetlands

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Great Lakes shoreline wetlands are adapted to a variable water supply. They require the disturbance of water level fluctuations to maintain their productivity. However, the magnitude and rate of climate change could alter the hydrology of the Great Lakes and affect wetland ecosystems. Wetlands would have to adjust to a new pattern of water level fluctuations; the timing, duration, and range of these fluctuations are critical to the wetland ecosystem response. Two "what if" scenarios: (1) an increased frequency and duration of low water levels and (2) a changed temporal distribution and amplitude of seasonal water levels were developed to assess the sensitivity of shoreline wetlands to climate change. Wetland functions and values such as wildlife, waterfowl and fish habitat, water quality, areal extent, and vegetation diversity are affected by these scenarios. Key wetlands are at risk, particularly those that are impeded from adapting to the new water level conditions by man-made structures or geomorphic conditions. Wetland remediation, protection and enhancement policies and programs must consider climate change as an additional stressor of wetlands.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson, D. R. and Glover, F. A.: 1967, ‘Effects of Water Manipulation on Waterfowl Production and Habitat’, Trans. of the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conf. 32, 292–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bardecki, M. J.: 1991, ‘Wetlands and Climate Change: A Speculative Review’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 16, 9–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bedford, B., Emanuel, R., Erickson, J., Rettig, S., Richards, R., Skavroneck, S., Vepraskas, M., Walters, R. and Willard, D.: 1976, An Analysis of the International Great Lakes Levels Board Report on Regulation of Great Lakes Water Levels: Wetlands, Fisheries and Water Quality. RF Monograph 76-04, IES Working Paper 30, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 92 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bellrose, F. C.: 1950, ‘The Relationship of Muskrat Populations to Various Marsh and Aquatic Plants’, J. Wildlife Management 14, 299–315.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bellrose, F. C. and Brown, L. G.: 1941, ‘The Effect of Fluctuating Water Levels on the Muskrat Population of the Illinois River Valley’, J. Wildlife Management 5, 206–212.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boss, J. W.: 1976, ‘Impacts of Permanent Flooding on Two Natural Wetlands in Michigan’, M. Sc. Thesis, Department of Botany, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, Michigan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burton, T. M.: 1985, ‘The Effects of Water Level Fluctuation on Great Lakes Coastal Marshes’, in H. H. Prince and F. M. D'Itri (eds.), Coastal Wetlands, 1985, Proc. of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Colloquium, East Lansing, Michigan, (Lewis Publishers, Chelsea, Michigan), pp. 3–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Busch, W-D. N. and Lewis, L. M.: 1984, ‘Responses of Wetland Vegetation to Water Level Variations in Lake Ontario’, in Proc. of the Third Conf. on Lake and Reservoir Management, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., pp. 519–524.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, T. R., Parry, M. L., Harasawa, H., and Nishioka, S.: 1994. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, London, UK and Ibaraki, Japan: University College London and National Institute for Environmental Studies, 60pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen, S. J.; 1986, ‘Impacts of CO2-Induced Climatic Change on Water Resources on the Great Lakes Basin’, Clim. Change 8, 135–153.

    Google Scholar 

  • Costanza, R. and Cornwell, L.: 1992, ‘The 4P Approach to Dealing with Scientific Uncertainty’, Environments 34, 12–20,42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cowardin, L. M., Carter, V., Golet, F. C. and LaRoe, E. T.: 1979, Classification of Wetlands and Deepwater Habitats of the United States, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, FWS/OBS-79/31.

  • Croley, T. E., II: 1986, ‘Understanding Recent High Great Lakes Water Levels’, GLERL Contribution No. 499, Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI, 11 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Croley, T. E., II: 1990, ‘Laurentian Great Lakes Double-CO2 Climate Change Hydrological Impacts’, Clim. Change 17, 27–47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Croley, T. E., II: 1993, ‘CCC GCM 2×CO2 Hydrological Impacts on the Great Lakes’, in Climate, Climate Change, Water Level Forecasting and Frequency Analysis, Supporting Documents, Vol. 1, Water Supply Scenarios, Task Group 2, Working Committee 3, International Joint Commission, Levels Reference Study Phase II.

  • Croley, T. E., II, Quinn, F. H., Kunkel, K. and Changnon, S. J.: 1995, ‘Potential Great Lakes Hydrology and Lake Level Impacts Resulting from Global Warming’, Proc. 6 th Symp. Global Change Studies, Dallas, pp. 67–72.

  • Dennis, D. G.: 1982, ‘Marsh Management Strategies for Effective Waterfowl Production’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 7, 37–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dovers, S. R. and Handmer, J. W.: 1992, ‘Uncertainty, Sustainability, and Change’, Global Environmental Change 2, 262–276.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farney, R. A. and Bookhout, T. A.: 1982, ‘Vegetation Changes in a Lake Erie Marsh During High Water Years’, Ohio Journal of Science 82, 103–107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fooks, B.: 1996, ‘Climate Change and Natural Area Management in the Halton/Hamilton Sub-basin of Lake Ontario’, in L. D. Mortsch and B. N. Mills (eds.), Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin Project Progress Report #1 Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability, Environment Canada, Atmospheric Environment Service, Burlington, Ontario, pp. 104–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Found, W. C., Hill, A. R., and Spence, E. S.: 1974, Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Drainage in Ontario, Geographical Monograph No. 6, Atkinson College, York University, Toronto, Canada, 175 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Francis, G. R., Grima, A. P., Regier, H. A. and Whillans, T. H.: 1985, A Prospectus for the Management of the Long Point Ecosystem, Technical Report No. 43, Great Lakes Fishery Commission, 202 p.

  • Geis, J. W.: 1979, ‘Shoreline Processes Affecting the Distribution of Wetland Habitat’, Trans. of the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conf. 44, 529–542.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glantz, M. H.: 1991, ‘The Use of Analogies in Forecasting Ecological and Societal Responses to Global Warming’, Environment 33, 10–15, 27–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanna, J. E. and Michalski, M. F. P.: 1982, ‘Fisheries Productivity and Water Level Fluctuations in Lac Seul, Northwestern Ontario’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 7, 365–388.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hardy, P. A.: 1982, ‘Coastal Wetlands: Managing a Fluctuating Resource’, in M. J. Bardecki (ed.), Proc. of the Pre-conference Sessions of the Ontario Wetlands Conference, pp. 133–142.

  • Harris, H. J., Fewless, G., Milligan, M. and Johnson, W.: 1981, ‘Recovery Processes and Habitat Quality in a Freshwater Coastal Marsh Following a Natural Disturbance’, in B. Richardson (ed.), Selected Proc. Midwest Conf. On Wetland Values and Management, The Freshwater Society, St. Paul, Minnesota, pp. 363–380.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, J. T. and Marshall, W. H.: 1963, ‘Ecology of water-level manipulations on a northern marsh’, Ecology 44, 331–343.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann, H. C.: 1990, ‘Climate Change Impacts on Laurentian Great Lakes Levels’, Clim. Change 17, 49–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Herdendorf, C. E., Hartley, S. M. and Barnes, M. D. (eds.): 1981, Fish and Wildlife Resources of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Within the United States, Volume 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D. C., 469 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Herdendorf, C. E., Raphael, C. N., and Jaworski, E.: 1986, The Ecology of Lake St. Clair Wetlands: a Community Profile, Biological Report 85(7.7), National Wetlands Research Center, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 187 p.

  • International Lake Erie Regulation Study Board (ILERSB): 1981, Lake Erie Water Level Study: Appendix F: Environmental Effects, International Joint Commission, Ottawa, Canada, 166 pp. + annexes.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaworski, E. and Raphael, C. N.: 1978, ‘Value of Coastal Wetlands to Furbearers’, in Coastal Wetlands Value Study in Michigan: Phase I: Fish, Wildlife and Recreational Values of Michigan's Coastal Wetlands, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Minnesota, pp. 97–107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaworski, E., Raphael, C. N., Mansfield, P. J. and Williamson, B. B.: 1981, ‘Impact of Great Lakes Water Level Fluctuations on Coastal Wetlands’, in C. E. Herdendorf, S. M. Hartley and M. D. Barnes (eds.), Fish and Wildlife Resources of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands within the United States, Vol. 1: Overview, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DC, pp. 104–298.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jude, D.J. and Pappas, J.: 1992, ‘Fish Utilization of Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands’, J. Great Lakes Res. 18, 651–672.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kadlec, R. H. and Kadlec, J. A.: 1978, ‘Wetlands and Water Quality’, in P. E. Greeson, J. R. Clark and J. E. Clark (eds.), Wetlands Functions and Values: the State of Our Understanding, Proc. of the National Symposium on Wetlands, Disneyworld Village, Lake Buena Vistra, Florida, pp. 436–456.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keddy, P. A.: 1990, ‘Water Level Fluctuations and Wetland Conservation’, in J. Kusler and R. Smardon (eds.), Proc. International Symposium on Wetlands of the Great Lakes, Association of State Wetland Managers, Niagara Falls, NY, pp. 79–91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keddy, P. A. and Reznicek, A. A.: 1985, ‘Vegetation Dynamics, Buried Seeds and Water Level Fluctuation on the Shorelines of the Great Lakes’, in H. H. Prince and F. M. D'Itri (eds.), Coastal Wetlands, 1985. Proc. of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Colloquium, East Lansing, Michigan, (Lewis Publishers, Chelsea, Michigan), pp. 33–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laperle, M.: 1974, ‘Effects of Water Level Fluctuation on Duck Breeding Success’, in H. Boyd (ed.), Waterfowl Studies in Eastern Canada, 1969–73, Canadian Wildlife Service, pp. 18–30.

  • Lee, D., Moulton, R. and Hibner, B.: 1995, ‘Climate change impacts on western Lake Erie, Detroit River, and Lake St. Clair water levels’, Report prepared for the Great Lakes-St Lawrence Basin Project, Environment Canada, Burlington, 44 pp.

  • Liston, C. R. and Chubb, S.: 1985, ‘Relationships of Water Level Fluctuations and Fish’, in H. H. Prince and F. M. D'Itri (eds.), Coastal Wetlands, 1985. Proc. of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Colloquium, East Lansing, Michigan, (Lewis Publishers, Chelsea, Michigan), pp. 121–133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liverman, D.: 1996, Personal communication. The University of Arizona, Latin America Area Center, Tucson, AZ.

  • Magnuson, J., Webster, K. E., Assel, R. A., Bowser, C. J., Dillon, P. J., Eaton, J. G., Evans, H. E., Fee, E. J., Mortsch, L. D., Schindler, D.W. and Quinn, F. H.: 1997, ‘Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Aquatic Systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region’, Hydrological Processes 11, 825–871.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manny, B. A.: 1984, ‘Potential Impacts of Water Diversions on Fishery Resources in the Great Lakes’, Fisheries 9, 19–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Markham, B. J.: 1982, ‘Waterfowl Production and Water Level Fluctuation’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 7, 22–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • McDonald, M. E.: 1955, ‘Cause and Effects of a Die-off of Emergent Vegetation’, J. Wildlife Management 19, 24–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNicholl, M. K.: 1985, ‘Avian Wetland Habitat Functions Affected by Water Level Fluctuations’, in H. H. Prince and F. M. D'Itri (eds.), Coastal Wetlands, 1985. Proc. of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Colloquium, East Lansing, Michigan, (Lewis Publishers, Chelsea, Michigan), pp. 87–92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meeks, R. L.: 1969, ‘The Effect of Drawdown Date on Wetland Plant Succession’, J. Wildlife Management 33, 817–821.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meisner, J. D., Goodier, J. L., Regier, H. A., Shuter, B. J. and Christie, W. J.: 1987, ‘An Assessment of the Effects of Climate Warming on Great Lakes Basin Fishes’, J. Great Lakes Res. 13, 340–352.

    Google Scholar 

  • Merendino, M., Smith, L., Murkin, H. and Peterson, R.: 1990, ‘The Response of Prairie Wetland Vegetation to Seasonality of Drawdown’, Wildlife Society Bulletin 18, 245–251.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitsch, W.J.: 1992, ‘Combining Ecosystem and Landscape Approaches to Great Lakes Wetlands’, J. Great Lakes Res. 18, 552–570.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitsch, W. J. and Gosselink, J. G.: 1986, Wetlands, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York, 539 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch, L. (ed.): 1990, Eastern Canadian Boreal and Sub-Arctic Wetlands: A Resource Document, Climatological Studies No. 42, Canadian Climate Centre, Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ont., Canada, 169 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch, L. D.: 1996, ‘Lessons Learned from Past Climate Impact Assessment Research’, in Ecosystem Effects of Atmospheric Change, Proc. of a Meeting Held at Pointe Claire, Quebec, Working Group on the Ecosystem Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation and the Working Group on Climate Change and Variability, Memorandum of Understanding on Science and Technology for Sustainable Development in the Natural Resources Sector, Government of Canada, Canada, pp. 53–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch, L. D. and Quinn, F. H.: 1996, ‘Climate Scenarios for Great Lakes Ecosystem Studies’, Limnology and Oceanography 41, 903–911.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Wetlands Working Group: 1988, Wetlands of Canada, Ecological Land Classification Series, No. 24, Sustainable Development Branch, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ont. and Polyscience Publications Inc., Montreal, Que., 452 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patch, S. P. and Busch, W.-D. N., eds.: 1984, The St. Lawrence River-Past and Present: A Review of Historical Natural Resource Information and Habitat Changes in the International Section of the St. Lawrence River, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Cortland, NY.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patterson, N. J. and Whillans, T. H.: 1985,’ Human Interference with Natural Water Level Regimes in the Context of other Cultural Stresses on Great Lakes Wetlands’, in H. H. Prince and F. M. D'Itri (eds.), Coastal Wetlands, 1985. Proc. of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Colloquium, East Lansing, Michigan, (Lewis Publishers, Chelsea, Michigan), pp. 209–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poiani, K. A. and Johnson, W. C.: 1991,’ Global Warming and Prairie Wetlands: Potential Consequences for Waterfowl Habitat’, Bioscience 41, 611–618.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poiani, K. A. and Johnson, W. C.: 1993a, ‘Potential Effects of Climate Change on a Semipermanent Prairie Wetland’, Clim. Change 24, 213–232.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poiani, K. A. and Johnson, W. C.: 1993b, ‘A Spatial Simulation Model of Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics in Semi-permanent Prairie Wetlands’, Ecological Applic. 3, 279–293.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentki, R. T., Gustafson, T. D. and Adams, M. S.: 1978, ‘Nutrient Movements in Lakeshore Marshes’, in R. E. Good, D. F. Whigman and R. L. Simpson (eds.), Freshwater Marshes: Ecological Processes and Management Potential, Academic Press, New York, pp. 169–194.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prince, H. H., Padding, P. I., and Knapton, R.W.: 1992, ‘Waterfowl Use of the Laurentian Great Lakes’, J. Great Lakes Res. 18, 673–699.

    Google Scholar 

  • Proulx, G.: 1982, ‘Relationship Between Muskrat Populations, Vegetation and Water Level Fluctuations and Management Considerations at Luther Marsh, Ontario’, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ont., Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan, C. M.: 1985, ‘The Effects of Lake Level Fluctuations on Three Lake Ontario Shorcline Marshes’, M. A. Thesis, Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ont., Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinlan, C. M. and Mulamoottil, G.: 1987, ‘The Effects of Water Level Fluctuations on Three Lake Ontario Shoreline Marshes’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 12, 64–77.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinn, F. H.: 1985, ‘Great Lakes Water Levels’, in Great Lakes Water Levels: Briefing of Senators and Representatives from the Great Lakes Basin, International Joint Commission, Washington, D.C., North Central Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, pp. 1–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Regier, H. A.: 1979, ‘Changes in Species Composition of Great Lakes Fish Communities Caused by Man’, Trans. of the North American Wildlife Conference 44, 58–566.

    Google Scholar 

  • Richards, T. L.: 1965, Meteorological Factors Affecting Great Lakes Water Levels, Circular CIR.4182, TEC.553, Meteorological Branch, Department of Transport, Ottawa, Canada, 23 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rubec, C. D. A., Lynch-Stewart, P., Wickware, G., and Kessel-Taylor, I.: 1988, ‘Wetland Utilization in Canada’, in National Wetlands Working Group, Wetlands of Canada, Ecological Land Classification Series, No. 24, Sustainable Development Branch, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ont. and Polyscience Publications In., Montreal, Que., pp. 379–412.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sather, J. H. and Smith, R. D.: 1984, An Overview of Major Wetland Functions, Report-FWS/OBS-84, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 67 pp.

  • Shay, J.: 1981. ‘Wetland Protection in the 80's’, in A. Champagne, (ed.), Proceedings of the Ontario Wetlands Conference, Federation of Ontario Naturalists and Ryerson Polytechnical Institute, Toronto, Ont., Canada, pp. 18–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tarnocai, C.: 1980, ‘Canadian Wetland Registry’, in C. D. A. Rubec and F. C. Pollet (eds.), Proc. Workshop on Canadian Wetlands, Report No. 12, Ecological Land Classification Series, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Canada, pp. 9–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, W. W.: 1985, ‘Discussion of “Relationships of Water Level Fluctuations and Fish’, in H. H. Prince and F. M. D'Itri (eds.), Coastal Wetlands, 1985. Proc. of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Colloquium, East Lansing, Michigan, (Lewis Publishers, Chelsea, Michigan), pp. 134–137.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tovell, W. M.: 1979, ‘The Great Lakes: Geology at Work’, J. Soil and Water Cons. 24, 65–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • van der Valk, A. G. and Davis, C. B.: 1976, ‘The Seed Banks of Prairie Glacial Marshes’, Canadian J. Botany 54, 1832–1838.

    Google Scholar 

  • van der Valk, A. G. and Davis, C. B.: 1978, ‘The Role of Seed Banks in the Vegetation Dynamics of Prairie Glacial Marshes’, Ecology 59, 322–335.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weller, M. W.: 1978, ‘Management of Freshwater Marshes for Wildlife’, in R. E. Good, D. F. Whigman and R. L. Simpson (eds.), Freshwater Wetlands: Ecological Processes and Management Potential, New York Academic Press, NY, pp. 267–284.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weller, M. W., 1981. Freshwater Marshes: Ecology and Wildlife Management, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 147 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weller, M. W. and Frederickson, L. H.: 1974, ‘Avian Ecology of a Managed Glacial Marsh’, Living Bird 12, 269–291.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weller, M. W. and Spatcher, C.E.: 1965, Role of Habitat in the Distribution and Abundance of Marsh Birds, Special Report No. 43, Agricultural and Home Economics Experimental Station, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa.

    Google Scholar 

  • Whillans, T. H.: 1985, ‘Related Long-term Trends in Fish and Vegetation Ecology of Long Point Bay and Marshes, Lake Erie’, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont., Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Whillans, T. H.: 1987, ‘Wetlands and Aquatic Resources’, in M. C. Healey and R. R. Wallace (eds.), Canadian Aquatic Resources, Canadian Bulletin of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences No 215, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, Canada, pp. 321–356.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilcox, D. A.: 1993, ‘The Role of Wetlands as Nearshore Habitat in Lake Huron,’ in M. Munawar, T. Edsall and J. Leach (eds.), The Lake Huron Ecosystem: Ecology, Fisheries and Management, SPB Academic Publishing, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 223–245.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilcox, D. and Meeker, J.: 1991, ‘Disturbance Effects on Aquatic Vegetation in Regulated and Unregulated Lakes in Northern Minnesota’, Canadian J. Botany 69, 1542–1551.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woo, M. K.: 1992, ‘Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Canadian Wetlands’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 17, 63–69.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wynne, B.: 1992, ‘Uncertainty and Environmental Learning: Reconceiving Science and Policy in the Preventative Paradigm’, Global Environmental Change 2, 111–127.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mortsch, L.D. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Shoreline Wetlands. Climatic Change 40, 391–416 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005445709728

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005445709728

Navigation