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Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98

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Abstract

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. RSMAS, Division of Marine Affairs and Policy, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, U.S.A.

    Kenneth Broad

  2. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, USA

    Kenneth Broad

  3. School of International and Public Affairs, Department of Economics, and Center for Environmental Research and Conservation, Columbia University, USA

    Alexander S. P. Pfaff

  4. Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA

    Michael H. Glantz

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  1. Kenneth Broad
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  2. Alexander S. P. Pfaff
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  3. Michael H. Glantz
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Broad, K., Pfaff, A.S.P. & Glantz, M.H. Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98. Climatic Change 54, 415–438 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016164706290

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