Skip to main content
Log in

Cross-Level Inference in Political Science

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Political Science research encounters inferences across levels of analysis; however, they are fraught with challenges. After introducing voting examples of aggregation bias, problems posed by aggregation bias are summarized more generally. Subsequently, the article reviews the major methodological approaches to overcome aggregation bias and to solve the ecological inference (disaggregation) problem. The article highlights the possibility that aggregation bias may lead governments to accept (or reject) international climate agreements when negotiating as blocs of countries as compared to the distribution of the preferences of all countries involved in the negotiations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Achen, C. H. and Shively, W. P.: 1995, Cross-Level Inference, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahn, T.-K., Ostrom, E. and Gibson, C.: 1998, Scaling Issues in the Social Sciences, International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), Bonn.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander, J. C., Giesen, B., Münch, R. and Smelser, N. J.: 1987, The Micro-Macro Link, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Axelrod, R. and Bennett, D. S.: 1997, ‘Choosing Sides — A Landscape Theory of Aggregation’, in Axelrod, R. (ed.): The Complexity of Cooperation — Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., pp. 72–94.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartels, L. M. and Brady, H. E.: 1993, ‘The State of Quantitative Political Methodology’, in Finifter, A. W. (ed.): Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, The American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., pp. 121–159.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryk, A. and Raudenbusch, S. W.: 1992, Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods, Sage, Newbury Park, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J. S.: 1987, ‘Microfoundations and Macrosocial Behavior’, in Alexander, J. C., Giesen, B., Münch, R. and Smelser, N.J. (eds.): The Micro-Macro Link, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA, pp. 153–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J. S.: 1990, Foundations of Social Theory, The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox, G. W. and Shugart, M. S.: 1991, ‘Comment on Gallagher's ‘Proportionality, Disproportionality and Electroal Systems’’, Electoral Studies 10, 348–352.

    Google Scholar 

  • Garrett, G. and Lange, P.: 1996, ‘Internationalization, Institutions and Political Change’, in Keohane, R. O. and Milner, H. V. (eds.): Internationalization and Domestic Politics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grass, R.-D, and Stützel, W.: 1983, Volkswirtschaftslehre — Eine Einführung auch für Fachfremde [Economics — An Introduction for Non-Specialists], Franz Vahlen, Munich.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanf, K., Andresen, S., Bochmer-Christiansen, S., Kux, S., Lewanski, R., Morata, F., Skea, J., Sprinz, D., Underdal, A., Vaahtoranta, T, and Wettestad, J.: 1996, The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements: Modelling National/International Linkages, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanushck, E. A., Jackson, J. E. and Kain, J. F.: 1974, ‘Model Specification, Use of Aggregate Data, and the Ecological Correlation Fallacy’, Political Methodology 1, 89–107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hardin, G.: 1968, ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’, Science 162, 1243–1248.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hox, J. J. and Kreft, I. G. G.: 1994b, ‘Multilevel Analysis Methods’, Sociological Methods and Research 22, 283–299.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hox, J. J. and Kreft, I. G. G.: 1994a, Multilevel Analysis Methods, Sage Periodicals Press, Thousand Oaks, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huckfeldt, R. and Sprague, J.: 1993, ‘Citizens, Contexts, and Politics’, in Finifter, A. W. (ed.): Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, The American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., pp. 281–303.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iida, K.: 1992, Do Negotiations Matter? The Second Image Reversed in Two-Level Games, Paper presented at the 50th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, 09–11 April 1992, The Palmer House, Chicago, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iida, K.: 1993, ‘When and How Do Domestic Constraints Matter? Two-Level Games with Uncertainty’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 37, 403–426.

    Google Scholar 

  • King, G.: 1997, A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.

    Google Scholar 

  • Langbein, L. I. and Lichtman, A. J.: 1978, Ecological Inference, Sage Publications, Newbury Park, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lijphart, A.: 1994, Electoral Systems and Party Systems — A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies 1945–1990, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ostrom, E., Gardner, R. and Walker, J.: 1994, Rules. Games & Common-Pool Resources, The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI.

    Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R. D.: 1988, ‘Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games’, International Organization 42, 427–460.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rockwell, R. C.: 1998, ‘From a Fictional Globe to POETIC Ecosystems: Modelling Human Interactions with the Environment’, in Schellnhuber, H.-J. and Wenzel, V. (eds.): Earth System Analysis — Integrating Science for Sustainability, Springer, Berlin, pp. 461–487.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schelling, T. C.: 1978, Micromotives and Macrobehavior, W.W. Norton, New York, N.Y.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, G.: 1994, ‘Getting Closer at Different Speeds: Strategic Interaction in Widening European Integration’, in Allan, P. and Schmidt, C. (eds.): Game Theory and International Relations — Preferences, Information and Empirical Evidence, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, pp. 125–155.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, G. and Cederman, L.-E.: 1994, ‘The Change of Tide in Political Cooperation: A Limited Information Model of European Integration’, International Organization 48, 633–662.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singer, J. D.: 1969, ‘The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations’, in Rosenau, J. N. (ed.): International Politics and Foreign Policy, Free Press, New York, pp. 20–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sprinz, D, and Luterbacher, U.: 1996, International Relations and Global Climate Change, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Potsdam, second edition, December 1996 (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/dept/soc/e/reports/pr21_1.htm).

  • Sprinz, D. and Vaahtoranta, T.: 1994, ‘The Interest-Based Explanation of International Environmental Policy’, International Organization 48, 77–105.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sprinz, D. F.: 1998, ‘Internationale Klimapolitik [International Climate Policy]’, Die Friedens-Warte — Blätter für internationale Verständigung und zwischenstaatliche Organsiation 73, 25–44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sprinz, D. F. and Helm, C.: forthcoming, ‘The Effect of Global Environmental Regimes: A Measurement Concept’, International Political Science Review.

  • Waltz, K. N.: 1959, Man, the State and War — A Theoretical Analysis, Columbia University Press, New York, N.Y.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waltz, K. N.: 1979, Theory of International Politics, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolinsky, Y.: 1994, International Bargaining Under the Shadow of the Electorate, Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Political Science: The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolinsky, Y.: 1997, Two-Level Game Analysis of International Environmental Politics, Paper presented at the 38th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, 18–22 March 1997, The Westin Harbour Castle Hotel, Toronto, Ontario.

    Google Scholar 

  • Young, O. R.: 1995, ‘The Problem of Scale in Human/Environment Relationships’, in Keohane, R. O. and Ostrom, E. (eds.): Local Commons and Global Interdependence — Heterogeneity in Two Domains, Sage, London, pp. 27–45.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Sprinz, D.F. Cross-Level Inference in Political Science. Climatic Change 44, 393–408 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005650925159

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005650925159

Navigation