Abstract
For the product of two population means, the problem of constructing a fixed-width confidence interval with preassigned coverage probability is considered. It is shown that the optimal sample sizes which minimize the total sample size and at the same time guarantee a fixed-width confidence interval of desired coverage depend on the unknown parameters. In order to overcome this, a fully sequential procedure consisting of a sampling scheme and a stopping rule are proposed. It is then shown that the sequential confidence interval is asymptotically consistent and the stopping rule is asymptotically efficient, as the width goes to zero. Furthermore, a second order result for the difference between the expected stopping time and the (total) optimal fixed sample size is established. The theoretical results are supported by appropriate simulations.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Berger, J. O. and Bernardo, J. M. (1989). Estimating a product of means: Bayesian analysis with reference priors, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 84, 200–207.
Berry, D. (1977). Optimal sampling schemes for estimating system reliability by testing components-1: fixed sample size, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 69, 485–491.
Billingsley, P. (1968). Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, New York.
Chow, Y. S. and Robbins, H. (1965). On the asymptotic theory of fixed-width sequential confidence intervals for the mean, Ann. Math. Statist., 36, 457–462.
Chow, Y. S. and Teicher, H. (1978). Probability Theory: Independence, Interchangeability, Martingales, Springer, New York.
Chow, Y. S. and Yu, K. F. (1981). The performance of a sequential procedure for the estimation of the mean, Ann. Statist., 9 184–189.
Chow, Y. S., Hsiung, C. A. and Lai, T. L. (1979). Extended renewal theory and moment convergence in Anscome's theorem, Ann. Probab., 7, 304–318.
Chow, Y. S., Robbins, H., and Siegmund, D. (1971). Great Expectations: The Theory of Optimal Stopping, Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
Ghosh, M. and Mukhopadhyay, N. (1980). Sequential point estimation of the difference of two normal means, Ann. Statist., 8, 221–225.
Hardwick, J. and Stout, Q. (1992). Optimal allocation for estimating the product of two means, Proceeding of the 23rd Symposium on the Interface: Computing Science and Statistics, 592–596, Interface Foundation of North American, Fairfax.
Harris, B. (1971). Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals for products and quotients of Poisson parameters with applications to reliability, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 66, 609–613.
Martinsek, A. T. (1983). Second order approximation to the risk of a sequential procedure, Ann. Statist., 11, 827–836.
Martinsek, A. T. (1990). Sequential point estimation in regression models with nonnormal errors, Sequential Anal., 9, 243–268.
Mukhopadhyay, N. (1976). Sequential estimation of a linear function of means of three normal populations, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 71, 149–153.
Mukhopadhyay, N. and Liberman, S. (1989). Sequential estimation of a linear function of mean vectors, Sequential Anal., 8, 381–394.
Mukhopadhyay, N. and Sriram, T. N. (1992). On sequential comparisons of means of first-order autoregressive models, Metrika, 39, 155–164.
Noble, W. (1992). First order allocation, Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University.
Page, C. (1985). Allocation schemes for estimating the product of positive parameters, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 80, 449–454.
Page, C. (1987). Sequential designs for estimating products of parameters, Sequential Anal., 6, 351–371.
Page, C. (1990). Allocation proportional to coefficients of variation when estimating the product of parameters, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 85, 1134–1139.
Page, C. (1995). Adaptive Allocation for estimation, IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series, 25, 213–222.
Rekab, K. (1989). Asymptotic efficiency in sequential designs for estimation, Sequential Anal., 8, 269–280.
Robbins, H., Simons, G. and Starr, N. (1967). A sequential analogue of the Behrens-Fisher problem. Ann. Math. Statist., 38, 1384–1391.
Southwood, T. (1978). Ecological Methods with Particular Reference to the Study of Insect Populations, Chapman and Hall, London.
Sriram, T. N. (1991). Second order approximation to the risk of a sequential procedure measured under squared relative error loss, Statistics and Decisions, 9, 375–392.
Sriram, T. N. (1992). An improved sequential procedure for estimating the regression parameter in regression models with symmetric errors, Ann. Statist., 20, 1441–1453.
Srivastava, M. S. (1970). On a sequential analogue of Behrens-Fisher problem, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B, 32, 144–148.
Starr, N. (1966). The performance of a sequential procedure for the fixed-width interval estimation of the mean, Ann. Math. Statist., 37, 36–50.
Stout, W. F. (1974). Almost Sure Convergence, Academic Press, New York.
Sun, D. and Ye, K. (1995). Reference prior Bayesian analysis for normal mean products, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 90, 589–597.
Takada, Y. (1992). A sequential procedure with asymptotically negative regret for estimating the normal mean, Ann. Statist., 20, 562–569.
Yfantis, E. A. and Flatman, G. T. (1991). On confidence interval for the product of three means of three normally distributed populations, Journal of Chemometrics, 5, 309–319.
Zheng, S., Seila, A. F. and Sriram, T. N. (1996a). Asymptotically risk efficient two stage procedure for estimating the product of two means, Tech. Report No. 96–22. Department of Statistics, University of Georgia.
Zheng, S., Seila, A. F. and Sriram, T. N. (1996b). Asymptotically risk efficient two stage procedure for estimating the product of k(≥2) means, Statistics and Decisions (under revision).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
About this article
Cite this article
Zheng, S., Sriram, T.N. & Seila, A.F. Sequential Fixed-Width Confidence Interval for the Product of Two Means. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 50, 119–145 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003453431570
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003453431570