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Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates

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Abstract

Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts areexpressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerabilityis measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, populationabove 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine worldregions, for the period 2000–2200, for agriculture, forestry, waterresources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term,the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be thecrucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of thesector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negativeor positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at.Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorerregions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Germany; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Univresiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Richard S.J. Tol

  2. Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

    Richard S.J. Tol

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Tol, R.S. Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics 21, 135–160 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014539414591

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