Skip to main content
Log in

Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

References

  • Axtell, R. L.: 1992, Theory of Model Aggregation for Dynamical Systems with Application to Problems of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chao, H.-P.: 1995, 'Managing the Risk of Global Climate Catastrophe: An Uncertainty Analysis', Risk Anal. 15, 69-78.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cronon, W.: 1983, Changes in the Land: Indians, Colonists and the Ecology of New England, Hill and Wagner, New York, p. 241.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dowlatabadi, H. and Morgan, M. G.: 1993, 'Integrated Assessment of Climate Change', Science 259, 1813, 1932.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fankhauser, S.: 1994, 'The Social Costs of Greenhouse Emissions: An Expected Value Approach', Energy J. 15, 157-184.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B.: 1991, 'Value Elicitation: Is There Anything in There?', Amer. Psychol. 46, 835-847.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B.: 1997, 'What Do Psychologists Want? Contingent Valuation as a Special Case of Asking Questions', in Kopp et al. (eds.), Determining the Value of Non-Market Goods, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, p. 333.

    Google Scholar 

  • Graham, J. and Vaupel, J.: 1980, 'The Value of Life: What Difference Does It Make?', Risk Anal. 1, 89-95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howard, R. A.: 1980, Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe is Safe Enough, Plenum, New York, p. 363.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: 1979, 'Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk', Econometrica 47, 363-391.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kempton, W., Boester, J. S., and Hartley, J.: 1995, Environmental Values in American Culture, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, p. 320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kingdon, J.W.: 1995, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, Harper Collins, New York, p. 240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lave, L. B. and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1993, 'Climate Change Policy: The Effects of Personal Beliefs and Scientific Uncertainty', Environ. Sci. Technol. 27, 1962-1972.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lave, L. B. and Vickland, K. H.: 1989, 'Adjusting to Greenhouse Effects: The Demise of Traditional Cultures and the Cost to the U.S.A.', Risk Anal. 9, 283-291.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loewenstein, G. F. and Prelec, C.: 1993, 'Preferences for Sequences of Outcomes', Psychol. Rev. 100, 91-108.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lowenthal, D.: 1990, 'Awareness of Human Impacts: Changing Attitudes and Emphases', The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, Cambridge University, Cambridge, U.K., p. 713.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manne, A., Mendelsohn, R., and Richels, R.: 1994, MERGE — A Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reduction Policies, Air and Waste Management Specialty Conference: Global Climate Change: Science, Policy and Mitigation, AWMA Press, Phoenix AZ.

    Google Scholar 

  • Masood, E.: 1995, 'Temperature Rises in Dispute Over Costing Climate Change', Nature 378, 429.

    Google Scholar 

  • Masood, E. and Ochert, A.: 1995, 'U.N. Climate Change Report Turns Up the Heat', Nature 378, 119.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mishan, E. J.: 1973, Economics for Social Decisions: Elements of Cost Benefit Analysis, Praeger, New York, p. 151.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M. G. and Henrion, M.: 1990, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing With Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, p. 332.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration: 1993, Report of the NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation, Federal Register 58, January 15, pp. 4601-4614.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D.: 1994, Managing the Global Commons, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, p. 213.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearce, D., Cline, W. R., Achanta, A. N., Fankhauser, S., Pachauri, R. K., Tol, R. S. J., and Vellinga, P.: 1996, 'The Social Costs of Climate Change: Damages and Benefits of Control', Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change: Working Group III Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peck, S. C. and Teisberg, T. J.: 1992, 'CETA:A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment', Energy J. 13, 55-77.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rotmans, J. and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1998, 'Chapter 5 — Integrated Assessment Modeling', in Rayner, S. and Malone, E. L. (eds.), Human Choice and Climate Change, Volume 3, Tools for Policy Analysis, pp. 292-377.

  • Schelling, T. C.: 1995, 'Intergenerational Discounting', Energy Policy 23, 395-402.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H. A.: 1945, Administrative Behavior, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, p. 368.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tengs, T., Adams, M., Pliskin, J., Safran, D., Siegel, J., Weinstein, M., and Graham, J.: 1995, 'Five Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and their Cost-Effectiveness', Risk Anal. 15, 369-390.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tribe, L. H.: 1973, 'Technology Assessment and the Fourth Discontinuity: The Limits of Instrumental Rationality', Southern Calif. Law Rev. 46, 617-660.

    Google Scholar 

  • Viscusi, W. K.: 1992, Fatal Tradeoffs: Public and Private Responsibilities for Risk, Oxford University Press, New York, p. 306.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weyant, J., Davidson, O., Dowlatabadi, H., Edmonds, J., Grubb, M., Parson, E. A., Richels, R., Rotmans, J., Shukla, P. R., Tol, R. S. J., Cline, W., and Frankhauser, S.: 1995, 'Integrated Assessments of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results', in Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., p. 448.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Morgan, M.G., Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J. et al. Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change. Climatic Change 41, 271–281 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005469411776

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005469411776

Keywords

Navigation