Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Selection Bias in the Link Between Child Wantedness and Child Survival: Theory and Data From Matlab, Bangladesh

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

We examine the potential effects of selection bias on the association between unwanted births and child mortality from 7,942 women from Matlab, Bangladesh who declared birth intentions in 1990 prior to conceiving pregnancies. We explore and test two opposing reasons for bias in the distribution of observed births. First, some women who report not wanting more children could face starvation or frailty; and if these women are infecund, the remaining unwanted births would appear more healthy. Second, some women who report not wanting more children could have social privileges in acquiring medical services, abortion, and contraceptives; and if these women avoid births, the remaining unwanted births would appear less healthy. We find (1) no overall effect of unwantedness on child survival in rural Bangladesh in the 1990s, (2) no evidence that biological processes are spuriously making the birth cohort look more healthy, and (3) some evidence that higher schooling for women who avoid unwanted births is biasing the observed sample to make unwanted births look less healthy. Efforts to understand the effect of unwantedness in data sets that do not control for complex patterns of selective birth may be misleading and require more cautious interpretation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bankole, A., & Westoff, C. (1998). The consistency and validity of reproductive attitudes: Evidence from Morocco. Journal of Biosocial Science, 30, 439–455.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baydar, N. (1995). Consequences for children of their birth planning status. Family Planning Perspectives, 27, 228–234, 245.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, S., & Eisenberg, L. (Eds.). (1995). The best intentions: Unintended pregnancy and the well-being of children and families. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Casterline, J., El-Zanaty, F., & El-Zeini, L. (2003). Unmet need and unintended fertility: Longitudinal evidence from Upper Egypt. International Family Planning Perspectives, 29, 158–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chalasani, S., Casterline, J. B., & Koenig, M. A. (2007, March). Consequences of unwanted childbearing: A study of child outcomes in Bangladesh. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, NY.

  • DaVanzo, J., Hale, L., Razzaque, A., & Rahman, M. (2008). The effects of pregnancy spacing on infant and child mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh: How they vary by the type of pregnancy outcome that began the interval. Population Studies, 62, 131–154.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DaVanzo, J., Rahman, M., Ahmed, S., & Razzaque, A. (2013). Influences on pregnancy-termination decisions in Matlab, Bangladesh. Demography, 50, 1739–1764.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diamond-Smith, N., & Potts, M. (2011). A woman cannot die from a pregnancy she does not have. International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 37, 155–158.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon-Mueller, R. (1988). Innovations in reproductive health care: Menstrual regulation policies and programs in Bangladesh. Studies in Family Planning, 19, 129–140.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eggleston, E., Tsui, A. O., & Kotelchuck, M. (2001). Unintended pregnancy and low birthweight in Ecuador. American Journal of Public Health, 91, 808–810.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fawcus, S. R., Crowther, C. A., Van Baelen, P., & Marumahoko, J. (1992). Booked and unbooked mothers delivering at Harare Maternity Hospital, Zimbabwe: A comparison of maternal characteristics and foetal outcome. Central African Journal of Medicine, 38, 402–408.

    Google Scholar 

  • Finer, L. B., & Henshaw, S. K. (2006). Disparities in rates of unintended pregnancy in the United States, 1994 and 2001. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 38, 90–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forrest, J. D. (1994). Epidemiology of unintended pregnancy and contraceptive use. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 170, 1485–1489.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forssman, H., & Thuwe, I. (1981). Continued follow-up study of 120 persons born after refusal of application for therapeutic abortion. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 64, 142–149.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gage, A. (1998). Premarital childbearing, unwanted fertility and maternity care in Kenya and Namibia. Population Studies, 52, 21–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gazmararian, J. A., Adams, M. M., Saltzman, L. E., Johnson, C. H., Bruce, F. C., Marks, J. S., & Zahniser, S. C. (1995). The relationship between pregnancy intendedness and physical violence in mothers of newborns. The PRAMS Working Group. Obstetrics and Gynecology, 85, 1031–1038.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gipson, J. D., Koenig, M. A., & Hindin, M. J. (2008). The effects of unintended pregnancy on infant, child, and parental health: A review of the literature. Studies in Family Planning, 39, 18–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joyce, T., Kaestner, R., & Korenman, S. (2002). On the validity of retrospective assessments of pregnancy intention. Demography, 39, 199–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koenig, M. A., Acharya, R., Singh, S., & Roy, T. K. (2006). Do current measurement approaches underestimate levels of unwanted childbearing? Evidence from rural India. Population Studies, 60, 243–256.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korenman, S., Kaestner, R., & Joyce, T. (2002). Consequences for infants of parental disagreement in pregnancy intention. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 34, 198–205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kubicka, L., Matejcek, Z., David, H. P., Dytrych, Z., Miller, W. B., & Roth, Z. (1995). Children from unwanted pregnancies in Prague, Czech Republic revisited at age thirty. Acta Psychiatrica Scandanavica, 91, 361–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lordan, G., & Frijters, P. (2013). Unplanned pregnancy and the impact on sibling health outcomes. Health Economics, 22, 903–914.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magadi, M. A., Madise, N. J., & Rodrigues, R. N. (2000). Frequency and timing of antenatal care in Kenya: Explaining the variations between women of different communities. Social Science & Medicine, 51, 551–561.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manski, C. (1989). Anatomy of the selection problem. Journal of Human Resources, 24, 343–360.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marsiglio, W., & Mott, F. (1988). Does wanting to become pregnant with a first child affect subsequent maternal behaviors and birth weight. Journal of Marriage and Family, 50, 1023–1036.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marston, C., & Cleland, J. (2003). Do unintended pregnancies carried to term lead to adverse outcomes for mother and child? An assessment in five developing countries. Population Studies, 57, 77–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matejcek, Z., Dytrych, Z., & Schuller, V. (1978). Children from unwanted pregnancies. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 57, 67–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montgomery, M. R., Lloyd, C. B., Hewett, P. C., & Heuveline, P. (1997). The consequences of imperfect fertility control for children’s survival, health, and schooling (Demographic and Health Surveys Analytical Reports No. 7). Calverton, MD: Macro International.

  • Myhrman, A., Olsen, P., Rantakallio, P., & Laara, E. (1995). Does the wantedness of a pregnancy predict a child’s educational attainment? Family Planning Perspectives, 27, 116–119.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pop‐Eleches, C. (2006). The impact of an abortion ban on socioeconomic outcomes of children: Evidence from Romania. Journal of Political Economy, 114, 744–773.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pulley, L., Klerman, L. V., Tang, H., & Baker, B. A. (2002). The extent of pregnancy mistiming and its association with maternal characteristics and behaviors and pregnancy outcomes. Perspectives in Sexual Reproductive Health, 34, 206–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Razzaque, A., Streatfield, P. K., & Gwatkin, D. R. (2007). Does health intervention improve socioeconomic inequalities of neonatal, infant and child mortality? Evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh. International Journal for Equity in Health, 6, 4. doi:10.1186/1475-9276-6-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, M., & Wolpin, K. (1993). Maternal expectations and ex post rationalization. Journal of Human Resources, 28, 205–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh, S., Sedgh, G., & Hussain, R. (2010). Unintended pregnancy: Worldwide levels, trends, and outcomes. Studies in Family Planning, 41, 241–250.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeatman, S., Sennott, C., & Culpepper, S. (2013). Young women’s dynamic family size preferences in the context of transitioning fertility. Demography, 50, 1715–1737.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Supported by NICHD 1 R03 HD069730-01. Helpful comments from John Casterline, Jessica Gipson, and Paul Stupp are gratefully acknowledged.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Suite E4622, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA

    David Bishai, Susan Christiansen & Michelle Hindin

  2. ICDDR,B, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Abdur Razzaque & A. H. M. Golam Mustafa

Authors
  1. David Bishai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Abdur Razzaque
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Susan Christiansen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A. H. M. Golam Mustafa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Michelle Hindin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David Bishai.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bishai, D., Razzaque, A., Christiansen, S. et al. Selection Bias in the Link Between Child Wantedness and Child Survival: Theory and Data From Matlab, Bangladesh. Demography 52, 61–82 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0354-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0354-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation