Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Dynamic Microsimulation Modeling for Policy Support: An Application to Belgium and possibilities for Japan

  • Published:
The Review of Socionetwork Strategies Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of dynamic microsimulation modeling as well as its recent developments. It then discusses in detail a recent trend in microsimulation research, which uses alignment methodologies to simulate microsimulation models in conjunction with macro-economic models. The goal of this “top down-integrated approach” is to jointly assess the budgetary costs of demographic ageing and pension reform, as well as their consequences on the adequacy of pensions. This paper then discusses, also in detail, how such an integrated approach using shared demographic and macroeconomic assumptions has been developed in Belgium. It describes the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, highlighting how it aligns to the simulation results of the semi-aggregate model MALTESE. Finally, this paper suggests that the joint assessment using the joint application of two similar models might be useful to assess pension reform in the Japanese context.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Dekkers G., Desmet, R.: Taking two to tango: the joint prospective assessment of pension sustainability and adequacy in Belgium. Presentation before the Social Protection Committee - Indicators Sub-Group, Crown Plaza Hotel, Brussels, 26 October 2011

  2. Atkinson, T.: An Enlarged role for tax-benefit models. Lelkes, O., Sutherland, H.: Tax and benefit policies in the Enlarged Europe: assessing the impact with microsimulation models. European Centre Vienna, Ashgate, 33-46, 2009

  3. Harding, A.: APPSIM: The Australian dynamic population and policy microsimulation model. Presentation to the Technical Workshops of the 1st, General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association, Vienna, 22 August 2007 http://www.euro.centre.org/ima2007/programme/papers/Harding1_paper.pdf

  4. Congressional Budget Office: CBO’s long term model: an overview. Congressional Budget Office background Paper, the Congress of the United States, 1-16, 2009

  5. Smith, K., Favreault, M., Butrica, B., Issa, P.: Modeling income in the near term, version 6. The Urban Institute; Project Report for the Social Security Administration, 2010

  6. Inagaki S.: A microsimulation model for projections of Japanese socioeconomic structure. The Review of Socionetwork Strategies 2(1), 25–41 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Inagaki, S.: Overview of INAHSIM: A microsimulation model for Japan. PIE/CIS Discussion paper, 468, 1-21, 2010 http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/pie/stage2/Japanese/d_p/dp2009/dp468/text2.pdf

  8. Fukawa T.: Health and long-term care expenditures of the elderly in Japan using a microsimulation model. The Japanese Journal of Social Security Policy, 6(2), 199–206 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Inagaki, S.: Evaluating the effect of pension reform on the poverty risk using a dynamic microsimulaion model - Evaluation of the bill for pension reform submitted by the government and new alternative plans. PIE/CIS Discussion paper, 550, 2012 (in Japanese)

  10. Emmerson, C., Reed, H., Shephard, A.: An assessment of PENSIM2. IFS Working Paper WP04/21, 1-51, 2004

  11. Zaidi A., Harding A., Williamson P.: New Frontiers in Microsimulation Modelling. Ashgate , 31–50 (2009)

  12. Dekkers, G., Desmet, R., De Vil, G.: The long-term adequacy of the Belgian public pension system: An analysis based on the MIDAS model. Working Paper (Federal Planbureau), 10-10, 1-79, 2010

  13. Tedeschi, S.: T-DYMM: background and challenges. Presentation during the Workshop: Innovative datasets and models for improving welfare policies/ Intermediate Conference PROGRESS project T-DYMM, Ministero dell’ Economia e delle Finanze, Rome, 10 May 2011

  14. Paxtot, C.: A micro simulation model for the Spanish retirement pensions system. Presentation during the Final Conference of the MiDaL project, Dealing with Dynamic Microsimulations: Data, Methodology and Tools (Including Liam2), CEPS/INSTEAD, Belval/Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg, 29 November 2011

  15. Li J.: Dynamic microsimulation for public policy analysis. Ph.D. thesis, Maastricht University. Boekenplan, 1-246, 2011

  16. Dekkers, G.: Intergenerational redistribution of income through capital funding pension schemes: simulating the Dutch civil servants’ pension fund ABP, Ph.D. thesis, Tiburg University. Shaker Publishing, 1-223, 2000

  17. Nelissen, J.: Income redistribution and social security. An application of microsimulation international studies in economic modeling. 17, Chapman and Hall, 1-239, 1994

  18. De Vil, G.: De Belgische eerstepijlerpensioenen aan de vooravond van de vergrijzing: doorlichting van bedragen, gerechtigden en adequaatheid. Working Paper (Federal Planning Bureau), 4-10, 1-31, 2010

  19. Berghman, J., Debels, A.,Vandenplas, H., Verleden, F., Mutsaerts, A., Peeters, H., Verpoorten, R.: Belgische Pensioenatlas 2010, Onderzoeksgroep Pensioenbeleid, Centrum voor Sociologisch Onderzoek, K.U. Leuven, 1-136, 2010

  20. De Vil, G., G. Dekkers, R. Desmet, M.-J. Festjens, Equipe 'Sociale bescherming, demografie en verkenning’, 2010, Adéquation des pensions et coût budgétaire du vieillissement: impacts de réformes et de scénarios alternatifs/Toereikendheid van het pensioen en budgettaire kosten van de vergrijzing: evaluatie van beleidsmaatregelen en van alternatieve scenario’s. Working Paper (Federal Planning Bureau) 22-10, 1-63, 2010

  21. Gruber, J., G., Wise, D.: Introduction. Gruber, J., Wise, J.: Social security and retirement around the world, the University of Chicago Press, 1-42, 2007

  22. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Pension Bureau, Actuarial Division: The 2009 actuarial valuation of the employees’ pension insurance and the national pension. Report of the 2009 actuarial valuation, 33-48, 2010

  23. European Central Bank Eurosystem, ECB Euro Foreign Exchange Reference Rates. http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Federal Planning Bureau, CESO University of Leuven, Belgium, and CEPS/INSTEAD, Luxembourg Avenue des Arts 47-49-Kunstlaan 47-49, 1000, Brussels, Belgium

    Gijs Dekkers

  2. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, 186-8601, Tokyo, Japan

    Seiichi Inagaki

  3. Federal Planning Bureau, Avenue des Arts 47-49-Kunstlaan 47-49, 1000, Brussels, Belgium

    Raphaël Desmet

Authors
  1. Gijs Dekkers
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Seiichi Inagaki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Raphaël Desmet
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gijs Dekkers.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dekkers, G., Inagaki, S. & Desmet, R. Dynamic Microsimulation Modeling for Policy Support: An Application to Belgium and possibilities for Japan. Rev Socionetwork Strat 6, 31–47 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12626-012-0026-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12626-012-0026-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation