Abstract
Ghana’s current population is about 24.2 million, and given the current population growth rate of 2.4 %, Ghana’s population is expected to double in about 29 years. Although fertility rates in Ghana have declined from 6.4 to 4 children per woman between 1988 and 2008, this transition has not been homogenous across all regions of Ghana. Fertility rates remain higher in the northern regions of the country, compared to the southern regions. This paper examines explanations for the regional fertility variations—particularly the persistently high fertility rates observed in the northern regions—paying particular attention to the contribution of socioeconomic, cultural and religious factors, and fertility attitudes among women in explaining this phenomenon. In order to capture the most recent fertility variations in the country, the paper uses the most recent round (2008) of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, and employs a Poisson multivariate estimation technique. Results indicate that regional differences in fertility are largely explained by socioeconomic factors such as urbanization, child mortality, education and household wealth. Cultural and religious factors also explain some of the observed variation between the northern region and the southern regions. The inclusion of the duration of post-partum amenorrhea and other proximate determinants in the model specifications significantly explains residual differences in fertility outcomes, particularly among the three northern regions. Findings therefore indicate a need for more region-specific policy targeting in the effort to reduce high fertility rates and ease the growth in population.
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Notes
Figures for the three northern regions for 1988 are not available the three regions were aggregated in that year and a single TFR statistic (6.8 children per woman) was generated. This statistic is close to the 6.9 estimate for Brong-Ahafo, the region with the highest TFR rate for that year.
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Acknowledgments
We wish to thank John Casterline for his preliminary review of this paper. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the University of Ghana, Economics Department Seminar Series. We are grateful to the participants of the seminar for their feedback. The usual disclaimer applies.
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Agyei-Mensah, S., Owoo, N.S. Explaining regional fertility variations in Ghana. J Pop Research 32, 157–172 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-015-9147-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-015-9147-7