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The impact of population dynamics and foreign labour policy on dependency: the case of Singapore

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Abstract

Understanding population dynamics is crucial to understanding current and future health care needs and designing systems to meet those needs. In this paper, we provide a methodological approach to investigate population dynamics in a system dynamics model configurable to initialise in dynamic equilibrium or disequilibrium. We then use the model to investigate how the current measured population compares to a population of the same size in equilibrium, and how a dependency ratio will change over time under different scenarios. We apply our approach to Singapore, which, like many other countries, has a rapidly increasing proportion of elderly in the population.

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Notes

  1. All model equations available from the authors on request.

  2. Measured population data are published by Singapore Department of Statistics and include estimates made by that department. The mortality rate parameter values are drawn from data published by the same department and adjusted for simulation as discussed in Chapter 2 of Meadows et al. (1974).

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore

    John Pastor Ansah, James P. Thompson & David Bruce Matchar

  2. Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA

    Crystal M. Riley

Authors
  1. John Pastor Ansah
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  2. Crystal M. Riley
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  3. James P. Thompson
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  4. David Bruce Matchar
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to John Pastor Ansah.

Appendices

Appendix 1: Key model parameters

Parameters

Values

Sources

Population model

Mortality rate juvenile

0.0008

Estimated from Singapore Department of Statistics (2010)

Mortality rate fecund

0.0007

Estimated from Singapore Department of Statistics (2010)

Mortality rate mature

0.0057

Estimated from Singapore Department of Statistics (2010)

Mortality rate elderly

0.0195

Estimated from Singapore Department of Statistics (2010)

NM retirement age emigration rate

0.0500

Optimization

Fraction fecund immigrating

0.0900

Optimization

Foreign labour model

Fraction S-PASS

0.085

Ministry of Manpower (2014)

Fraction work permit

0.200

Ministry of Manpower (2014)

Fraction employment/dependent pass

0.260

Ministry of Manpower (2014)

Fraction foreign domestic workers pass

0.155

Ministry of Manpower (2014)

Fraction immigration S-PASS

0.125

Optimization

Fraction immigration employment pass

0.175

Optimization

NM retirement age emigration rate

0.050

Optimization

Appendix 2: Steady-state equations

To simulate a hypothetical total population of Singapore in a steady-state, four-level model of the kind discussed in Chapter 2 of Meadows et al. (1974) the initial levels can be derived from constant mortality rates and the time of progression (maturation) from one system state to the next: Juvenile (age 00–age 14), Fecund (age 15–44), Mature (age 45–64), and Elderly (age 65+). The distinctions between age levels are somewhat arbitrary but can be changed by changing parameter values for mortality and maturation rates. The important distinction is roughly between child-bearing years, working ages, and dependent ages.

The stock of Juveniles is determined by the inflow of births and the outflows to dying and maturing:

figure afigure afigure afigure afigure afigure a

Measured population data are published by Singapore Department of Statistics and include estimates made by that department. The mortality rate parameter values are drawn from data published by the same department and adjusted for simulation as discussed in Chapter 2 of Meadows et al. (1974).

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Ansah, J.P., Riley, C.M., Thompson, J.P. et al. The impact of population dynamics and foreign labour policy on dependency: the case of Singapore. J Pop Research 32, 115–138 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-015-9145-9

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