Zusammenfassung
Aufgrund hoher Volllaststundenzahlen und der relativ stetigen Energieproduktion können Offshore-Windparks zu einer zukünftig verlässlicheren nachhaltigen Energieversorgung beitragen. Wesentlich für eine weitergehende Entwicklung der Offshore-Windenergie in Deutschland und Europa ist jedoch eine deutliche Senkung der Stromgestehungskosten. Dies steht im Widerspruch zu der bisherigen Kostenentwicklung. Deshalb wird hier ein Ansatz entwickelt und diskutiert, mit dem basierend auf der Erfahrungskurventheorie die mögliche Kostenentwicklung der Offshore-Windstromerzeugung unter Berücksichtigung standortspezifischer Randbedingungen analysiert wird. Dazu wird sowohl der Einfluss eines weiteren Ausbaus der Offshore-Windenergieleistung untersucht als auch analysiert, welche Entwicklungspotenziale einzelne Windkraftanlagenkomponenten und bestimmte Elemente der Projektentwicklung, der Windparkerrichtung, des Anlagenbetriebs und des Rückbaus haben. Diese einzelnen Elemente, aus denen sich einerseits die Windkraftanlagen bzw. der Windpark und andererseits der Lebenszyklus eines derartigen Windparks zusammensetzt, werden anschließend als Teil einer Gesamtbetrachtung integriert analysiert und ein übergreifender Ausblick über die potenzielle Entwicklung der Stromgestehungskosten der Offshore-Windenergie gegeben. Demnach können bei einem weiteren forcierten Ausbau deutliche Kostensenkungen erwartet werden, die primär auf die Kosteneinsparungen durch eine Standardisierung im Bereich der Tragstrukturen sowie die mit zunehmender Erfahrung verbesserten Logistikprozesse für Installation und Instandhaltung zurückzuführen sind.
Abstract
Due to a high capacity factor and a steady electricity generation, offshore wind farms can contribute to a more reliable sustainable energy supply in the future. For a further development of offshore wind energy in Germany and Europe, the levelized cost of electricity have to be reduced significantly. This is contrary to the recent cost trends. Therefore, an approach based on the experience curve theory is developed and discussed to analyze potential cost developments in the offshore wind power generation, taking into account site-specific conditions. For this purpose, the influence of a further expansion of offshore wind energy capacity is investigated and the potential for development of single wind turbine components, certain elements of the project development, the wind farm construction, operation and decommissioning are analyzed. These individual elements that make up the wind turbines and wind farm or are a part of the life cycle of such a wind farm, are then analyzed integrated as part of an overall assessment to give an overall outlook on the potential development of the levelized cost of electricity from offshore wind power. Thus, significant cost reductions can be expected with a further accelerated expansion of the offshore wind energy. These reductions are primarily due to cost savings through standardization in the field of support structures and improved logistics processes for installation and maintenance with increasing experience.
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Die Autoren danken dem Stipendienprogramm RWE Fellows des RWE Konzerns für die finanzielle Unterstützung.
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Reimers, B., Kaltschmitt, M. Kostenentwicklung der Offshore-Windstromerzeugung – Analyse mithilfe der Erfahrungskurventheorie. Z Energiewirtsch 38, 217–234 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-014-0142-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-014-0142-z