Abstract
This paper describes the results of research exploring the impact of demographic change on housing, health and social care in the North of England from 2011 to 2036. These results show that the population of the North of England is set to grow, age and become more ethnically diverse. Although these changes will affect all areas in the North of England, rural areas will be affected most. We show that population ageing results in increased numbers of people with various degrees of disability, in particular, of dementia. At the same time the number of people in the age group which are most likely to provide unpaid care for the frail older population (people aged 50–64) will decrease as baby boomers themselves move into old age. The results point to a rise in the need for social care, in its broadest terms but unless the prevalence rates for unpaid caring increase a ‘care gap’ will develop. Although the data show a challenging outlook, the projected changes also highlight development opportunities for emerging fields such as telecare, telehealth and ICT, and for developing social enterprises.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Phil Rees for his help and support during this research and Chengchao Zuo for his patience at the many additional data requests. The advice, guidance and feedback from the project's External Advisory Board have been invaluable as has the help of colleagues from the other three work strands. Thanks also go to Hilary Arksey and Sue Yeandle for their input. The 2001 Census Sample of Anonymised Microdata is provided through the Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (University of Manchester), with the support of the ESRC and JISC. All tables containing Census data, and the results of analysis, are reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland.
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Buckner, L., Croucher, K., Fry, G. et al. The Impact of Demographic Change on the Infrastructure for Housing, Health and Social Care in the North of England. Appl. Spatial Analysis 6, 123–142 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9090-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9090-y