Abstract
In this study, an analysis of century scale climate trends in the central highlands of Sri Lanka is presented. Monthly rainfall and temperature records of the period 1869–2006 from five climatological stations were analyzed. The trend is calculated by the least square regression analysis and the significance of the observed trend is estimated using the Mann–Kendall statistic. The results clearly show that there is a statistically significant decrease in annual rainfall in the western slopes of the central highlands. Throughout the last century, the annual reduction of rainfall in Nuwara Eliya which is at an altitude of 1895 m was 5.2 mm/year. The decrease is largely due to the reduction in southwest monsoon rainfall which contributes to 75% of the total reduction. No significant change was observed on the eastern side of the central highlands which receives rainfall predominantly from the northeast monsoons. The mean annual temperature in the mountainous region shows a uniform increasing trend which is in line with the 100-year global temperature increase of 0.8 ± 0.2∘C. Kandy, which is at an altitude of 477 m and closely linked with the rainfall climatology of Nuwara Eliya, showed no significant change in the mean annual temperature. If the current trend continues, in another 100 years, western and eastern slopes of central highlands will receive the same amount of rainfall from the southwest monsoon and the northeast monsoon which will have far reaching consequences for Sri Lanka’s economy and the ecology of the hill country.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Domroes M and Ranatunge E 1993 A statistical approach towards a regionalization of daily rainfall in Sri Lanka; Int. J. Climatol. 13 741–754. doi: 10.1002/joc.3370130704.
Groisman P Y et al. 1999 Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climate change; Climate Change 42 243–283. doi: 10.1023/A:10054328031880.
Herath S and Ratnayake U 2004 Monitoring rainfall trends to predict adverse impacts – A case study from Sri Lanka (1964–1993); Global Environ. Change 14 71–79. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.11.009.
IPCC 2007 Technical Summar; In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jayawardene H K W I, Sonnadara D U J and Jayewardene D R 2005 Trends of rainfall in Sri Lanka over the last century; Sri Lankan J. Phys. 6 7–17.
Jayawardene H K W I, Jayewardene D R and Sonnadara D U J 2015 Interannual variability of precipitation in Sri Lanka; J. Nat. Sci. Foundation Sri Lanka 43 (1) 75–82. doi: 10.4038/jnsfsr.v43i1.7917.
Krishnakumar K N, Prasada Rao G S L H V and Gopakumar C S 2009 Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala, India; Atmos. Environ 43 1940–1944. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.053.
Madduma Bandara C M and Wickremagamage P 2004 Climate change and its impact on upper watersheds of the hill country of Sri Lanka; Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management in Changing Environment of the Monsoon Region, Colombo, Sri Lanka, pp. 94–109.
Malmgren B A, Hulugalla R, Hayashi Y and Mikami T 2003 Precipitation trends in Sri Lanka since the 1870s and relationships to El Niño-southern oscillation; Int. J. Climatol. 23 235–1252. doi: 10.1002/joc.921.
Malmgren B A, Hulugalla R, Lindeberg G, Inoue Y, Hayashi Y and Mikami T 2007 Oscillatory behaviour of monsson rainfall over Sri Lanka during the late 19th and 20th centuries and its relationship to SSTs in the Indian Oceanand ENSO; Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 89 115–125. doi: 10.1007/s00704-006-0225-9.
New M, Todd M, Hulme M and Jones P 2001 Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century; Int. J. Climatol. 21 1899–1922. doi: 10.1002/joc.680.
Panabokke C R and Walgama A 1974 The application of precipitation confidence limits to crop water requirements in dry zone agriculture in Sri Lanka; J. Nat. Sci. Council of Sri Lanka 2 95–113.
Roy S S and Balling R C 2004 Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India; Int. J. Climatol 24 457–466. doi: 10.1002/joc.995.
Yoshino M M and Suppiah R 1982 Climatic records of monsoon Asia; Climatological Notes, Tskuba, Japan 31 1–80.
Yoshino M M and Suppiah R 1983 Climate and paddy production: A study on selective districts in Sri Lanka; Climatological Notes, Tsukuba, Japan 33 33–50.
Yue S, Pilon P and Cavadias G 2002 Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series; J. Hydrol 259 254–271. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7.
Wickramagamage P 1998 Large-scale deforestation for plantation agriculture in the hill country of Sri Lanka and its impacts; Hydrol. Process. 12 2015–2028. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19981030)12:13/14.
Zubair L 2002 El Nino-Southern Oscillation influences on rice production in Sri Lanka; Int. J. Climatol. 22 249–260. doi: 10.1002/joc.714.
Zubair L, Rao S A and Yamagata T 2003 Modulation of Sri Lankan Maha rainfall by the Indian Ocean Dipole; Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (2) 1063. doi: 10.1029/2002GL015639.
Acknowledgement
This work was supported by the National Research Council, Sri Lanka under research grant number NRC 06-18.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Silva, J.D., J Sonnadara, D.U. Century scale climate change in the central highlands of Sri Lanka. J Earth Syst Sci 125, 75–84 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0652-z
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0652-z