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Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

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Abstract

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Engineering Design Centre, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ, UK

    David C. Wynn & P. John Clarkson

  2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, McGill University, Macdonald Engineering Building, 817 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC, H3A 2K6, Canada

    Khadidja Grebici

Authors
  1. David C. Wynn
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  2. Khadidja Grebici
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  3. P. John Clarkson
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Correspondence to David C. Wynn.

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Wynn, D.C., Grebici, K. & Clarkson, P.J. Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design. Int J Interact Des Manuf 5, 187–202 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12008-011-0131-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12008-011-0131-y

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