Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Frontiers of Earth Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study analyzed the changes in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region of China, and undertook a composite analysis of the atmospheric circulations in the troposphere, which included an analysis of the interannual and interdecadal variations. This paper examines in detail the circulation backgrounds of the wet and dry periods in summer and autumn and their correlations with the sea surface temperature. The results indicated that the summer and autumn precipitation across Yunnan has significantly decreased over the past 50 years. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, the summer and autumn precipitation cycle has been in a low precipitation phase. The overlap of two extremely low rain phases has caused frequent droughts in the region. In addition, the atmospheric circulation fields during these wet and dry periods are very different. These are mainly shown as a meridional wind anomaly in eastern China in the low atmosphere, as a cross-equatorial airflow anomaly, a tropical zonal wind anomaly over the Indian Ocean, and as a related South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Further analysis suggested that the SST over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific warm pool critically affect the anomalous summer and autumn precipitation over Yunnan by impacting the monsoon circulations. Future projections for greenhouse gas warming suggest a potential anomalous circulation background between 2010 and 2020 which may result in less precipitation during the wet season or even drought events across the Yunnan region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Boo K O, Kwon W T, Baek H J (2006). Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional projection of future climate change. Geophys Res Lett, 33(1): 313–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang C P, Zhang Y, Li T (2000). Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim, 13(24): 4310–4325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H P (2012). Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chin Sci Bull, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Deng H, Luo Y, Yao Y, Liu C (2013). Spring and summer precipitation changes from 1880 to 2011 and the future projections from CMIP5 models in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Quat Int, 304: 95–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diffenbaugh N S, Giorgi F (2012). Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. Clim Change, 114(3–4): 813–822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Q, Wang B (2005). Circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere summer. J Clim, 18(17): 3483–3505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Q, Wang B (2007). Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian monsoon. J Clim, 20(15): 3751–3767

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y H, Sun Y, Liu Y Y, Si D, Wang Z Y, Zhu Y X, Liu Y J, Song Y F, Zhang J (2013). Interdecadal and interannual variabilities of the Asian summer monsoon and its projection of future change. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 37(2): 253–280 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Duan A, Hu J, Xiao Z (2013). The Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon in the CMIP5 simulations. J Clim, 26(19): 7747–7766

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frich P, Alexander L, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank A M G, Peterson T C (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Climate Res. 19: 193–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • García-Herrera R, Paredes D, Trigo R M, Trigo I F, Barriopedro D, Hernández E, Mendes MA (2007). The outstanding 2004/05 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation. J Hydrometeorol, 8(3): 483–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang G, Liu Y, Huang R (2011). The interannual variability of summer rainfall in the arid and semiarid regions of Northern China and its association with the northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection. Adv Atmos Sci, 28(2): 257–268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang R H, Liu Y, Feng T (2013). Interdecadal change of summer precipitation over Eastern China around the late-1990s and associated circulation anomalies, internal dynamical causes. Chin Sci Bull, 58(12): 1339–1349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L (2012). Analyses of the causes of severe drought occurring in Southwest China from the fall of 2009 to the spring of 2010. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 36(3): 443–457 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ji L R, Cholaw B, Shi N, Xie ZW(2008). On the medium-range process of the rainy, snowy and cold weather of South China in early 2008 Part III: pressure trough over the Tibetan Plateau/Bay of Bengal. Climatic and Environment Research, 13(4): 446–458 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin Z H, Chen J (2002). A composite study of the Influence of SST warm anomalies over the western Pacific warm pool on Asian summer monsoon. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 26(1): 57–68 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996). The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 77(3): 437–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korecha D, Barnston A G (2007). Predictability of June–September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon Weather Rev, 135(2): 628–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lambert S J, Boer G J (2001). CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn, 17(2–3): 83–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K M, Wu H T, Kim K M (2012). A robust response of precipitation to global warming from CMIP5 models. NASA, http://ntrs.nasa.gov/ search.jsp?R = 20120015974

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee J Y, Wang B (2014). Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Clim Dyn, 42(1–2): 101–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Dai A, Zhou T, Lu J (2010). Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000. Clim Dyn, 34(4): 501–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y G, He D, Hu J M, Gao J (2014). Variability of extreme precipitation over Yunnan Province, China 1960–2012. Int J Climatol, doi: 10.1002/joc.3977

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Y H, Qing J M, Li Q, Luo W L (2012). Inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of South Asian High in summer and its influences on flood/ drought over western southwest China. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 34(9): 71–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu C L, Allan R P, Huffman G J (2012). Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations. Geophys Res Lett, 39: L13803

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Avissar R, Giorgi F (1996). Simulation with the regional climate model RegCM2 of extremely anomalous precipitation during the 1991 east Asian flood: an evaluation study. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 101(D21): 26199–26215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu M Y, Zhu F C, Huang WQ (1987). Eigenvectors of 100hPa southern Asia high and its relationship with summer rainfall in China. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 3(1): 125–132 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Meinshausen M, Smith S J, Calvin K, Daniel J S, Kainuma M L T, Lamarque J F, Matsumoto K, Montzka S A, Raper S C B, Riahi K, Thomson A, Velders G J M, van Vuuren D P P (2011). The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change, 109(1–2): 213–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min S K, Park E, Kwon W T (2004). Future projections of East Asian climate change from multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES scenario simulations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 82(4): 1187–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 99

    Google Scholar 

  • Polade S D, Gershunov A, Cayan D R, Dettinger M D, Pierce D W (2013). Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett, 40(10): 2296–2301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qi D M, Zhou C Y, Li Y Q, Chen Y R (2012). Cause analysis of climate changes in southwest China. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 32(1): 35–42 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Qian W H, Zhang Z J (2012). Planetary-scale and regional-scale anomaly signals for persistent drought events over Southwest China. Chin J Geophys, 55(5): 1462–1471 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C, Kaplan A (2003). Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res, D, Atmospheres, 108 (D14): 4407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sato T, Kimura F, Kitoh A (2007). Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model. J Hydrol (Amst), 333(1): 144–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song J, Yang H, Li C Y (2011). A further study of causes of the severe drought in Yunnan province during the 2009/2010 winter. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 35(6): 1009–1019 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Song Y, Qiao F, Song Z, Jiang C (2013). Water vapor transport and cross-equatorial flow over the Asian-Australia monsoon region simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Adv Atmos Sci, 30(3): 726–738

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor K E, Stouffer B J, Meehl G A (2012). An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 93(4): 485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007). The use of the multimodel ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 365(1857): 2053–2075

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Vuuren D P, Den Elzen M G, Lucas P L, Eickhout B, Strengers B J, van Ruijven B, Wonink S, van Houdt R (2007). Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Clim Change, 81(2): 119–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000). Pacific-east Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect east Asian climate? J Clim, 13(9): 1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H J (2001). The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s. Adv Atmos Sci, 18(3): 376–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H J, Fan K (2013). Recent changes in the East Asian monsoon. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 37(2): 313–318 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang T, Hamann A, Spittlehouse D L, Aitken S N (2006). Development of scale-free climate data for Western Canada for use in resource management. Int J Climatol, 26(3): 383–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M (2004). Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J Clim, 17(24): 4674–4691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei W, Zhang R, Wen M, Rong X Y, Li T (2013). Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over China. Clim Dyn, 43(5–6): 1257–1269

    Google Scholar 

  • Wild M, Schmucki E (2011). Assessment of global dimming and brightening in IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 models and ERA40. Clim Dyn, 37 (7–8): 1671–1688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiao Z N, Yan H M, Li C Y (2002). The relationship between Indian ocean SSTA dipole index and the precipitation and temperature over China. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 18(4): 335–344 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu C H, Xu Y (2012). The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 5(6): 527–533

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang H, Song J, Yan H M, Li C Y (2012). Cause of the severe drought in Yunnan Province during winter of 2009 to 2010. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 17 (3): 315–326

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang J, Liu Q, Xie S P, Liu Z, Wu L (2007). Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett, 34(2): L02708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Dong M, Wu T (2011). Changes in precipitation extremes over Eastern China simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1. 0). Clim Res, 50(2): 227–245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X N (2012). Research on interannual variability of air-sea interaction over Indo-pacific warm pool region and its relationship with low-latitude plateau summer precipitation anomaly. Ph. D. Dissertation for Ph.D Degree. Yunnan: Yunnan University (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou X H, Xiao Z N (2014). Climate projection over Yunnan Province and the surrounding regions based on CMIP5 data. Climatic and Environmental Research, 19 (5): 601–613 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Ziniu Xiao

  2. Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning, 530022, China

    Xiuhua Zhou

  3. China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Ping Yang & Hua Liu

Authors
  1. Ziniu Xiao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xiuhua Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ping Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Hua Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ziniu Xiao.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Xiao, Z., Zhou, X., Yang, P. et al. Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region. Front. Earth Sci. 10, 498–512 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-015-0523-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-015-0523-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation