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Where is the future for a growing metropolis in North China under water resource constraints?

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Abstract

Rapid progress of economic development and urbanisation has created a water demand crisis in the Beijing–Tianjin metropolis in North China. This study evaluates the metropolis’s carrying capacity under water resource constraints by examining the discrepancies between the actual water requirements, water usage and the locally available water resources; the water footprint (WF) approach is used to assess associated changes in these variables. A structural decomposition analysis is applied to decompose the driving factors of the increasing water requirements in the Beijing–Tianjin metropolis. The results indicate that the increasing actual water requirements are far greater than the increase in the locally available water resources and water usage, especially in Beijing. The discrepancy between the actual water requirements, locally available water resources and water usage sharply increased from 2002 to 2007, which introduced a serious water crisis and more significant constraints on the water resources. The carrying capacity was based on freshwater transfer, groundwater extraction and VW trade. Four separate factors are considered to contribute to the effects of actual water requirement changes from 2002 to 2007: technological improvements, economic system efficiency, scale effect and consumption structure changes. Significant water saving efforts via technological improvement have been made in the Beijing–Tianjin metropolis in the past. However, these improvements could not cover the increasing actual water requirements driven by economic and population growth. To address the two challenges (i.e. regional development and the water shortage) and to enhance the carrying capacity in terms of sustainability in the future, the Beijing–Tianjin metropolis should adopt a more active role in controlling the growth of population and increasing the WF. Although increased water resources and interregional virtual water trades with other regions have greatly contributed to alleviating the water crisis in recent years in the Beijing–Tianjin metropolis, the water saving potential may be realised through the readjustment of industrial structure, consumption structure, urban spatial structure and economic instruments in the future.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71173212, 71303232). This research was also funded by Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources (Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, China University of Geosciences Beijing) (Grant No.CCA2013.16). All anonymous reviewers and editors are thanked for their contributions in improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 XinJie Kou Wai Street, Haidian, 100875, Beijing, China

    Dingyang Zhou

  2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Management School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 55 Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian, 100190, Beijing, China

    Zhuoying Zhang

  3. Management School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Research Centre on Fictitious Economy and Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 80 Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian, 100190, Beijing, China

    Minjun Shi

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  1. Dingyang Zhou
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Correspondence to Minjun Shi.

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Zhou, D., Zhang, Z. & Shi, M. Where is the future for a growing metropolis in North China under water resource constraints?. Sustain Sci 10, 113–122 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-014-0250-z

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