Abstract
Paddy rice fields in Asia account for over 90% of global total rice cultivation area, and the major rice-producing countries of Asia account for over one-half of the world’s population. Monitoring and understanding the dynamic changes in paddy rice agriculture in Asia are very important for agricultural sustainability, food and water security, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a crop choice decision model that dynamically simulates future changes in sown areas of paddy rice in Asia. This model was developed under the framework of Action-in-Context (AiC) with the aim of understanding land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives using a crop utility function. Empirical validation for the model conducted after model construction indicated the reliability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land-use change and its capacity for investigating long-term scenarios in the future. Finally, the model was applied for future scenario analysis over a time frame of 30 years with 5-year increments, beginning from the year 2005. The simulation results provided insights into rates and trajectories of changes in Asian rice areas over the test period, with the resulting implications for future agricultural sustainability in Asia. These outcomes can improve understanding of projected land-use changes and explain their causes, locations and consequences, as well as providing support for land-use planning and policy making.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported financially by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan under its DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) project, by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (40930101 and 40971218), and by the Foundation for National Non-Profit Scientific Institution, Ministry of Finance of China (2009-IARRP-25). All persons and institutes who kindly made their data available for this analysis are acknowledged. Last but not least, we thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.
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Edited by Mitsuru Osaki and Ademola Braimoh, Hokkaido University, Japan.
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Wu, W., Shibasaki, R., Yang, P. et al. Modeling changes in paddy rice sown areas in Asia. Sustain Sci 5, 29–38 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-009-0094-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-009-0094-0