Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The probability analysis for the many-versus-one guerrilla war

  • Published:
Journal of Systems Science and Complexity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper discusses a stochastic duel model between two forces. On one side is the guerrilla (or terrorists) which has only one weapon (or person), and on the other an organized force of some sort which has many weapons. The model is called the many-versus-one guerrilla war. The guerrilla side has a number of advantages such as choice of location and time of engagement, concealment by topography, observation of the intended target, and line of fire. The authors present these advantages in what they believe are a realistic scenario of a duel between the guerrilla force and the organized force. By the four suppositions coinciding with the practical duel background, the paper presents the formulas to calculate the satisfying probability, the weak satisfying probability, and the acceptable probability of the attack side.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Bracken J, Lanchester models of the Ardennes Campaign, Naval Research Logistics, 1995, 42: 559–577.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Hausken K and Moxnes K R, The microfoundations of the Lanchester War equations, Military Operations Research, 2000, 5: 79–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Williams T and Ancker C J, Stochastic duels, Operations Research, 1963, 11: 803–817.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Brown R H, Theory of Combat: The probability of winning, Operations Research, 1963, 11: 418–425.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  5. Liu L, Yu J, and Guo Z, A kind of stochastic duel model for Guerrilla War, European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 171: 430–438.

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  6. Liu L, Comments on ‘some discrete processes in the theory of stochastic duels’, Operations Research, 1996, 44: 416–417.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. Jaiswal N K, Analysis of combat models, Annals of Operations Research, 1987, 9: 561–573.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Hausken K and Moxnes J F, Stochastic conditional and unconditional warfare, European Journal of Operational Research, 2002, 40: 61–87.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  9. Gue K R, A dynamic distribution model for combat logistics, Computers & Operations Research, 2003, 30: 367–381.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Friedman Y, Optimal strategy for the one-against-many battle, Operations Research, 1977, 25: 884–888.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Kikuta K, A note on the one against many battle, Operations Research, 1983, 31: 952–956.

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Science, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094, China

    Liwei Liu & Jianjun Li

  2. School of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094, China

    Linfang Qian

Authors
  1. Liwei Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jianjun Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Linfang Qian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Liwei Liu.

Additional information

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60874118.

This paper was recommended for publication by Editor ZHANG Hanqin.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Liu, L., Li, J. & Qian, L. The probability analysis for the many-versus-one guerrilla war. J Syst Sci Complex 28, 645–660 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-015-2041-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-015-2041-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation