Abstract
Objective
To test for any long-term effects on the death rates of domestic assault suspects due to arresting them versus warning them at the scene.
Methods
The Milwaukee Domestic Violence Experiment (MilDVE) employed a randomized experimental design with over 98 % treatment as assigned. In 1987–88, 1,200 cases with 1,128 suspects were randomly assigned to arrest or a warning in a 2:1 ratio. Arrested suspects were generally handcuffed and taken to a police station for about 3 to 12 h. Warned suspects were left at liberty at the scene after police read aloud a scripted statement. Death records were obtained in 2012–13 from the Wisconsin Office of Vital Statistics and the Social Security Death Index, with the support of the Milwaukee Police Department.
Results
In the first presenting case in which the 1,128 were identified as suspects, they were randomly assigned to arrest in 756 cases and to a warning in 372. No clear difference in death rates from all causes combined (d = 0.04) was ever evident between the groups, or for five of the six specific categories of cause of death. However, a clear difference in homicide victimizations of the suspects emerged between those arrested and those warned. At 23 years after enrolment, suspects assigned to arrest were almost three times more likely to have died of homicide (at 2.25 % of suspects) than suspects assigned to a warning (at 0.81 %), a small to moderate effect size (d = 0.39) with marginal significance (two-tailed p = 0.096; relative risk ratio = 2.79:1; 90 % CI = 1.0007 to 7.7696). Cox regressions controlling for suspects’ stakes in conformity (employment and marriage) show that homicide victimization for arrested suspects is three times that of warned suspects (p = 0.07), although no interactions are yet significant. Logistic regression with more covariates increases arrest effects on homicide to 3.2 times more than warnings (p = 0.06).
Conclusions
Suspects randomly assigned to arrest died from homicide at a consistently higher rate than controls over a two-decade period, but the difference was not statistically discernible until the 22nd year after assignment. Long-term follow-up of randomized experiments is essential for detecting mortality differences that substantially affect cost–benefit analyses of criminal justice practices.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agnew, R. (2006). Pressured Into Crime: An Overview of General Strain Theory. Los Angeles: Roxbury Publishing.
Anderson, E. (1978). A Place on the Corner. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Benjamini, Y., & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 289–300.
Berk, R. A., Campbell, A., Klap, R., & Western, B. (1992). The deterrent effect of arrest in incidents of domestic violence: A Bayesian analysis of four field experiments. American Sociological Review, 57(5), 698–708.
Bernard, T. J. (1990). Angry aggression among the “truly disadvantaged”. Criminology, 28(1), 73–96.
Bushway, S. D. (1998). The impact of an arrest on the job stability of young white American men. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 35(4), 454–479.
Collins, R. C. (2008). Violence: A Micro-Sociological Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Dugan, L., Nagin, D. S., & Rosenfeld, R. (2003). Exposure reduction or retaliation? The effects of domestic violence resources on intimate-partner homicide. Law & Society Review, 37(1), 169–198.
Gleick, J. (1987). Chaos theory: Making a new science. New York: Viking.
Iyengar, R. (2009). Does the certainty of arrest reduce domestic violence? Evidence from mandatory and recommended arrest laws. Journal of Public Economics, 93(1–2), 85–98.
Jacobs, J. A. (2007). Further Reflections on ASR’s Greatest Hits. The American Sociologist, 38(1), 99–131.
Kubzansky, L. D., Koenen, K. C., Spiro, A., III, Vokonas, P. S., & Sparrow, D. (2007). Prospective study of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and coronary heart disease in the Normative Aging Study. Archives of General Psychiatry, 64(1), 109.
Lauritsen, J. L., Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1991). The link between offending and victimization among adolescents. Criminology, 29(2), 265–292.
Lempert, R. (1989). Humility is a virtue: On the publicization of policy-relevant research. Law and Society Review, 23(1), 145–161.
Massey, D. S. & Denton, N. A. (1993). American apartheid: Segregation and the making of the underclass. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
McCord, J. (1978). A thirty-year follow-up of treatment effects. American Psychologist, 33(3), 284.
McCord, J. (1981). Consideration of some effects of a counseling program. In S. Miller (Ed.) New directions in the rehabilitation of criminal offenders (p. 394–405). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
Maxwell, C. D., Garner, J. H., & Fagan, J. A. (2002). The preventive effects of arrest on intimate partner violence: research, policy, and theory. Criminology & Public Policy, 2(1), 51–80.
Nores, M., Belfield, C. R., Barnett, W. S., & Schweinhart, L. (2005). Updating the economic impacts of the High/Scope Perry Preschool program. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 27(3), 245–261.
Oquendo, M., Friend, J. M., Halberstam, B., Brodsky, B. S., Burke, A. K., Grunebaum, M., Malone, K. M., & Man, J. J. (2003). Association of comorbid posttraumatic stress disorder and major depression with greater risk for suicidal behavior. The American Journal of Psychiatry, 160(3), 580–582.
Pate, A. M., & Hamilton, E. E. (1992). Formal and informal deterrents to domestic violence: The Dade County Spouse Assault Experiment. American Sociological Review, 691–697.
Paternoster, R., Brame, R., Bachman, R., & Sherman, L. W. (1997). Do fair procedures matter? The effect of procedural justice on spouse assault. Law and Society Review, 163–204
Rubin, D. B. (1980). Comment on “Randomization analysis of experimental data in the Fisher randomization test” by Basu. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 591–93.
Sampson, R. J., Winship, C., & Knight, C. (Forthcoming). Translating Causal Claims: Principles and Strategies for Policy-Relevant Criminology. Criminology and Public Policy.
Sherman, L. W. (1984). Experiments in Police Discretion: Scientific Boon or Dangerous Knowledge? Law and Contemporary Problems, 47(4), 61–81.
Sherman, L. (1992). Policing domestic violence: Experiments and dilemmas. New York: Free Press.
Sherman, L. W. (1993). Defiance, deterrence, and irrelevance: A theory of the criminal sanction. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 30(4), 445–473.
Sherman, L. W., & Berk, R. A. (1984). The specific deterrent effects of arrest for domestic assault. American Sociological Review, 49(2), 261–272.
Sherman, L. W., & Cohn, E. G. (1989). The impact of research on legal policy: the Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment. Law and Society Review, 23(1), 117–144.
Sherman, L. W., Harris, H. M. (2013a). Effects of arrest over the life-course: A 24-year follow-up of the Milwaukee domestic violence experiment. Paper presented at the Stockholm Criminology Symposium, June 11th, Stockholm, Sweden.
Sherman, L. W., Harris, H. M. (2013b). Increased mortality of domestic assault victims after arrest of their partners: 23–year evidence from a randomised, controlled trial. Under Review.
Sherman, L. W., Schmidt, J. D., Rogan, D. P., Gartin, P. R., Cohn, E. G., Collins, D. J., & Bacich, A. R. (1991). From initial deterrence to long-term escalation: short–custody arrest for poverty domestic violence. Criminology, 29(4), 821–850.
Sherman, L. W., Schmidt, J. D., Rogan, D. P., & Smith, D. A. (1992). Variable effects of arrest on criminal careers: The Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment. Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology, 83(1), 137.
Sherman, L. W. & Smith, D. A. (1992). Crime, punishment, and stake in conformity: legal and informal control of domestic violence. American Sociological Review, 57(5), 680–690.
Toby, J. (1957). Social disorganization and stake in conformity: complementary factors in the predatory behavior of hoodlums. The Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology, and Police Science, 48(1), 12–17.
Wolfgang, M. (1958). Patterns in Criminal Homicide. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Ziliak, S. T., & Mccloskey, D. N. (2008). The cult of statistical significance: how the standard error costs us jobs, justice and lives. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Milwaukee Chief of Police Edward Flynn for his strong support of our data collection efforts; the late Police Chief Robert Ziarnik for his support of the original experiment; and David Mazeika and Brad Bartholomew for excellent research assistance. We also offer our appreciation for the excellent service provided to the followup data collection by Joyce Knapton at Wisconsin's Department of Health Services and Dan Polans and Carianne Yerkes of the Milwaukee Police Department.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is dedicated to the memory of Anthony Bacich and Dennis Rogan, who worked hard to make this experiment a clear and powerful test.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sherman, L.W., Harris, H.M. Increased homicide victimization of suspects arrested for domestic assault: A 23-year follow-up of the Milwaukee Domestic Violence Experiment (MilDVE). J Exp Criminol 9, 491–514 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-013-9193-0
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-013-9193-0