Tracing the ‘swan groups’ of physics and economics in the key publications of nobel laureates

Abstract

Following the ‘black–white swan’ interaction metaphor introduced in an earlier study, we now trace and observe a new ‘swan groups’ pattern. Our motivation for introducing the ‘swan groups’ is based on the fact that ‘black–white swan’ interactions are observed primarily in physics, which belongs to science. We extend a newer model called ‘swan groups’ model and test its applicability to the field of economics, belonging to social sciences. The primary feature of this model is that the ‘black swan’ represents an important scientific discovery or contribution that has been awarded Nobel Prize, while the ‘white swans’ are highly cited publications by the ‘black swan’. Together the two types of swans form a group, though unlike the original ‘black–white swan’ interaction pattern, the ‘swan groups’ do not necessarily interact in a way where we see a marked decrease in citations to white swans. Our findings show that the new ‘swan groups’ pattern covers about 50% of key Nobel prize-winning physics papers and about 40% of key Nobel prize-winning economic papers. This allows us to identify important academic achievements both qualitatively and quantitatively, not only in science where major breakthroughs can cause paradigm shifts, but also in the social sciences where progress often remains open to multiple discoveries and doctrines.