Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework for property valuation to identify the ideal 2050 portfolio mixes in EU-27 countries with shrinking populations

  • Published:
Quality & Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate the development trends of the residential trade and industry up until 2050. In the first step available data are analysed for the period 1970–2050. In the second step an expert assessment based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is integrated to reflect the estimation of various expert forecasts of the future. The AHP methodology is based on different variables in the fields of demographic, social-environmental as well as build-quality characteristics to imply a widespread perception of the portfolio mix of habitations in 2050. There will mainly be a focus on several EU-27 countries with potential future-shrinking populations like Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Furthermore, they will be compared with Spain whose population is expected to increase.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aczél, J., Saaty, T.: Procedures for synthesizing ratio judgements. J. Math. Psychol. 27, 93–102 (1983)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Afshari, M., Mafi, E.: Land capability assessment for regional planning using AHP and GIS at Shandiz Urban Region, Northeast Iran. Environ. Urban. ASIA 5(1), 105–118 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aguarón, J., Escobar, M.T., Moreno-Jiménez, J.M.: The precise consistency consensus matrix in a local AHP-group decision making context. Annal. Operat. Res. 4, 1–15 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  • Aznar, J., Caballer, V.: An application of the analytic hierarchy process method in farmland appraisal. Span. J. Agric. Res. 3(1), 17–24 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aznar, J., Cervelló, R., Romero, A.: New spanish banking conglomerates. Application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to their market value. Int. Res. J. Financ. Econ. 78, 70–82 (2011a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Aznar, J., Ferrís-Oñate, J., Guijarro, F.: An ANP framework for property pricing combining quantitative and qualitative attributes. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 61, 740–755 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aznar, J., Guijarro, F., Moreno-Jiménez, J.M.: Mixed valuation methods: a combined AHP-GP procedure for individual and group multicriteria agricultural valuation. Ann. Oper. Res. 190, 221–238 (2011b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boulmier, M.: Meeting the needs of an ageing population-a challenge for our collective consciousness and public policies. In: CECODHAS (ed.) Preparing the Future-Affordable Housing and the Challenge of an Ageing Population in Europe-Success Stories, pp. 6–8. Publications Office of CECODHAS Housing Europe, Brussels (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cambra-Fierro, J., Hart, S.J., Polo-Redondo, Y., Fuster-Mur, A.: Market and learning orientation in times of turbulence: relevance questioned? An analysis using a multi-case study. Qual. Quant. 46(3), 855–871 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CECODHAS Housing Europe (eds): Welfare Transformation and Demographic Change in Europe: Challenges for the Social Housing Sector. Publications Office of CECODHAS Housing Europe, Brussels (2007)

  • CECODHAS Housing Europe (eds): Housing Europe Review 2012-The Nuts and Bolts of European Social Housing Systems. Publications Office of CECODHAS Housing Europe, Brussels (2011)

  • CECODHAS Housing Europe (eds): Preparing the Future—Affordable Housing and the Challenge of an Ageing Population in Europe—success Stories. Publications Office of CECODHAS Housing Europe, Brussels (2012)

  • Chang, C., Ku, C., Ho, H., Liao, C.: A MCGP decision aid for homebuyers to make the best choice. Qual. Quant. 45, 969–983 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chauhan, K., Shah, N., Rao, V.: The analytic hierarchy process as a decision-support system in the housing sector: a case study. World Appl. Sci. J. 3(4), 609–613 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • Clayton, J., MacKinnon, G.: The time-varying nature of the link between REIT, real estate and financial asset return. J. R. Estat. Portf. Manag. 7(1), 43–54 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Din, A., Hoesli, M., Bender, A.: Environmental variables and real estate prices. Urban Stud. 38(11), 1989–2000 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Commission (ed.): The 2012 Ageing Report—Economic and Budgetary Projections for the 27 EU Member States (2010–2060). Publications Office of the European Union, Brussels (2012)

  • Eurostat (eds): Europa in Zahlen—Eurostat Jahrbuch 2010. Publications Office of the European Union, Brussels (2010)

  • Eurostat (eds): Demography Report 2010—Older, More Numerous and Diverse Europeans. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (2011)

  • Eurostat (eds): Focus on Territorial Typologies. Publications Office of the European Union, Brussels (2012a)

  • Eurostat (eds): Europe in Figures—Eurostat Yearbook 2012. Publications Office of the European Union, Brussels (2012b)

  • Eurostat (eds): Figures for the Future-20 years of Sustainable Development in Europe? A guide for citizens. Publications Office of the European Union, Brussels (2012c)

  • Geohive (eds): Urban/Rural Division of Countries for 2010. http://www.geohive.com/earth/pop_urban2.aspx (2010)

  • Gibb, K., Hoesli, M.: Developments in Urban housing and property markets. Urban Stud. 40(5–6), 887–896 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gómez-Navarro, T., Garcia-Melón, M., Diaz-Martin, D., Acuna-Dutra, S.: Evaluation of urban development proposals—An ANP approach. Int. J. Hum. Soc. Sci. 4(7), 1–11 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoesli, M., Hamelink, F.: What factors determine international real estate security returns? R. Estat. Econ. 32(3), 437–462 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoesli, M., Lekander, J.: Real estate portfolio strategy and product innovation in Europe. J. Prop. Invest. Financ. 26(2), 162–176 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoesli, M., Lekander, J., Witkiewicz, W.: International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier. J. R. Estat. Res. 26(2), 161–206 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • HSBC Global Research (eds): The World in 2050. Publications Office of HSBC Global Research, London (2012)

  • Khumpaisal, S., Chen, Z.: Risks Assessment in Real Estate Development: An Application of Analytic Network Process. Printed version of the School of Built Environment. Liverpool John Moores University, 1–26 (2007)

  • Lachman, L.: Global Demographics and their Real Estate Investment Implications. Publications Office of the Urban Land Institute, Washington (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lynn, D.: Active Private Equity Real Estate Strategy. John Wiley & Sons Inc, New Jersey (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Maurer, R., Reiner, F., Rogalla, R.: Return and risk of German open-end real estate funds. J. Prop. Res. 21(3), 209–233 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (eds): Housing Statistics in the European Union. Publicatons Office of the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, Delft (2010)

  • Moulaert, F., Martinelli, F., González, S., Swyngedouw, E.: Introduction: social innovation and governance in European cities—Urban development between path dependency and radical innovation. Eur. Urban Reg. Stud. 14(3), 195–209 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Novy, A., Redak, V., Jäger, J., Hamedinger, A.: The end of red vienna: recent ruptures and continuities in Urban governance. Eur. Urban Reg. Stud. 8(2), 131–144 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • OECD (eds): OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050—The Consequences of Inaction. OECD publications, Paris (2012)

  • Patrizia Research AG (eds): Residential Market Report Europe 2010/2011. Publications Office of the Patrizia Research AG, Augsburg (2012)

  • Philippas, N., Economou, F., Babalos, V., Kostakis, A.: Herding behavior in REITs: Novel tests and the role of financial crisis. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 29, 166–174 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez, A., Martínez, E., Guenaga, G.: Uneven redevelopment—new Urban policies and socio-spatial fragmentation in metropolitan bilbao. Eur. Urban Reg. Stud. 8(2), 161–178 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saaty, T.L.: Decision Making for Leaders. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh (1990)

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty, T.L.: Making and validating complex decisions with the AHP/ANP. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 14(1), 1–36 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saaty, T.L.: Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process—Decision Making with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty, T.L., Vargas, L.: Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Stanford (2001)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sarathy, P.: TQM practice in real-estate industry using AHP. Qual. Quant. 47, 2049–2063 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoenmaeckers, R., Kotowska, I.: Population ageing and its challenges to social policy: study prepared for the European population conference 2005. Popul. Stud. 2005(50), 1–178 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Stephen, L., Simon, S.: The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run. J. R. Estat. Portf. Manag. 11(1), 55–80 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • UNFPA-United Nations Populations Fund (eds): Indicators of Ageing and older Persons: World, Regions, Countries, 2012 and 2050. Publications Office of the United Nations Populations Fund, New York (2013)

  • United Nations (ed.): Demographic Yearbook 1970. Publications Office of the United Nations, New York (1971)

  • United Nations (ed.): Compendium of Housing Statistics. Publications Office of the United Nations, New York (1974)

  • United Nations (ed.): Compendium of Human Settlements Statistics. Publications Office of the United Nations, New York (2001)

  • United Nations (ed.): Demographic Yearbook 2012. Publications Office of the United Nations, New York (2012)

  • United Nations (ed.): World Population Prospects—The 2012 Revision; Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. Publications Office of the United Nations, New York (2013)

  • Wen, F., Li, L.: Based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of real estate investment risk research. Atlantis Press—Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference On Systems Engineering and Modeling, 413–417 (2013)

  • Worzala, E., Sirmans, C.F.: Investing in international real estate stocks: a review of the literature. Urban Stud. 40(5–6), 1115–1149 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We want to thank the reviewer for the suggestions he/she made that help us to improve the first draft of this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Business Administration and Management, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022, Valencia, Spain

    Roberto Cervelló-Royo & Francisco Guijarro

  2. Faculty Economy and Public Management, Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften, Alexanderstraße 1, 20099, Hamburg, Germany

    Thomas Pfahler

  3. Faculty Economy and Public Management, Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften in cooperation with the Universitat Politècnica de València, Alexanderstraße 1, 20099, Hamburg, Germany

    Marion Preuss

Authors
  1. Roberto Cervelló-Royo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Francisco Guijarro
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Thomas Pfahler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Marion Preuss
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marion Preuss.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cervelló-Royo, R., Guijarro, F., Pfahler, T. et al. An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework for property valuation to identify the ideal 2050 portfolio mixes in EU-27 countries with shrinking populations. Qual Quant 50, 2313–2329 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0264-3

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0264-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation