Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Disaster community resilience assessment method: a consensus-based Delphi and AHP approach

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Several studies have highlighted the importance of community resilience in disaster management. The paper focuses on Saudi Arabia and proposes a ‘community resilience to disaster’ framework. The dimensions of the framework have been developed using the consensus-based Delphi technique. A weighting system for each dimension and criteria is proposed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Experts’ opinions were collected using pair-wise comparisons and then coded in AHP Expert Choice software to evaluate and give priorities to the possible outcomes of the process. The weighting system provides a quantitative and qualitative assessment tool to measure community resilience to disasters in Saudi Arabia and beyond. The findings emphasise the importance of a number of dimensions, including health and well-being (24.5 % of the total weight), governance (18 %), physical and environmental (17.4 %), economic (15.9 %), information and communication (14.3 %) and social (9.9 %).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahrens J, Rudolph PM (2006) The importance of governance in risk reduction and disaster management. J Contingencies Crisis Manag 14:207–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ainuddin S, Routray JK (2012) Community resilience framework for an earthquake prone area in Baluchistan. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 2:25–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alshehri S, Rezgui Y, Li H (2013) Public perception of the risk of disasters in a developing economy: the case of Saudi Arabia. Nat Hazards 65:1813–1830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alshehri SA, Rezgui Y, Li H (2014) Delphi-based consensus study into a framework of community resilience to disaster. Nat Hazards, 1–25

  • Andijani AA (1998) A multi-criterion approach for Kanban allocations. Omega 26:483–493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AWM Strategy Team (2010) Community economic resilience index. Birmingham, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Babic Z, Plazibat N (1998) Ranking of enterprises based on multicriterial analysis. Int J Prod Econ 56–57:29–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bahurmoz AM (2006) The analytic hierarchy process: a methodology for win-win management. JKAU Econ Adm 20:3–16

  • Bosher L, Dainty A (2011) Disaster risk reduction and ‘built-in’resilience: towards overarching principles for construction practice. Disasters 35:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buckle P (2006) Assessing social resilience. In: Paton D, Johnston D (eds) Disaster resilience. Charles Thomas, Springfield, pp 88–104

  • Burton CG (2012) The development of metrics for community resilience to natural disasters. Doctoral dissertation. Retrieved from http://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd/1275

  • Castleden M (2011) Natural disasters and climate change. Chemical Hazards and Poisons Report, 37

  • CDSI & INFORMATION, C. D. O. S. A. 2014. Estimates of population by sex and nationality [Online]. Available: http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/index.php?option=com_docman&Itemid=160. Accessed 10.03 2015

  • Chan S-L, Wey W-M, Chang P-H (2014) Establishing disaster resilience indicators for Tan-sui river basin in Taiwan. Soc Indic Res 115:387–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Channa MI, Ahmed KM (2010) Emergency response communications and associated security challenges. arXiv preprint arXiv:1010.4887

  • Cimellaro GP, Reinhorn AM, Bruneau M (2010) Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience. Eng Struct 32:3639–3649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colussi M (1999) The community resilience manual: a new resource will link rural revitalization to CED best practice

  • Cutter SL, Boruff BJ, Shirley WL (2003) Social vulnerability to environmental hazards*. Soc Sci Q 84:242–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cutter SL, Barnes L, Berry M, Burton C, Evans E, Tate E, Webb J (2008) A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Glob Environ Change 18:598–606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cutter SL, Burton CG, Emrich CT (2010) Disaster resilience indicators for benchmarking baseline conditions. J Homel Secur Emerg Manag 7

  • Dalziell EP, Mcmanus ST (2004) Resilience, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity: implications for system performance. International Forum for Engineering Decision Making (IFED), University of Canterbury, Christchurch

  • Davis R, Cook D, Cohen L (2005) A community resilience approach to reducing ethnic and racial disparities in health. Am J Public Health 95(12):2168

  • De lange H, Sala S, Vighi M, Faber J (2010) Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment—a review and perspectives. Sci Total Environ 408:3871–3879

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doyle JC (1996) Improving performance in emergency management. Disaster Prev Manag Int J 5:32–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eakin H, Bojórquez-Tapia LA (2008) Insights into the composition of household vulnerability from multicriteria decision analysis. Glob Environ Change 18:112–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engle N, De Bremond A, Malone E, Moss R (2013) Towards a resilience indicator framework for making climate-change adaptation decisions. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 1–18

  • Ercoskun OY, Global I (2012) Green and ecological technologies for Urban planning: creating smart cities. Information Science Reference

  • Ewing L, Synolakis C (2011) Coastal resilience: can we get beyond planning the last disaster? Solutions to coastal disasters 2011. ASCE, pp 936–947

  • Frankenberger T, Mueller M, Spangler T, Alexander S (2013) Community resilience: conceptual framework and measurement feed the future learning Agenda. Westat, Rockville

  • Hallegatte S, Hourcade J-C, Dumas P (2007) Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: illustration on extreme events. Ecol Econ 62:330–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haynes K, Barclay J, Pidgeon N (2008) Whose reality counts? Factors affecting the perception of volcanic risk. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 172:259–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho P, Fischer M, Kam C (2009) Prospective validation of virtual design and construction methods: framework, application, and implementation guidelines. In: An automated method to identify occupant interactions in renovations of occupied buildings, p 122

  • Ishizaka A, Labib A (2009) Analytic hierarchy process and expert choice: benefits and limitations. OR Insight 22:201–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Z, Yu L (2013) Performance evaluation of emergency risk management under group decision making: an approach of incorporating fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS. J Converg Inf Technol 8:845–854

    Google Scholar 

  • Joerin J, Shaw R, Takeuchi Y, Krishnamurthy R (2012) Assessing community resilience to climate-related disasters in Chennai, India. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 1:44–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jordan E, Javernick-Will A (2013) Indicators of community recovery: content analysis and Delphi approach. Nat Hazards Rev 14:21–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirmayer LJ, Sehdev M, Whitley R, Dandeneau SF, Isaac C (2009) Community resilience: models, metaphors and measures. Int J Indig Health 5:62–117

    Google Scholar 

  • Kusel J (1996) Well-being in forest-dependent communities, part I: a new approach. University of California, Centers for Water and Wildland Resources

  • Lebel L, Anderies JM, Campbell B, Folke C, Hatfield-Dodds S, Hughes TP, Wilson J (2006) Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems

  • Lee S, Walsh P (2011) SWOT and AHP hybrid model for sport marketing outsourcing using a case of intercollegiate sport. Sport Manag Rev 14:361–369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leykin D, Lahad M, Cohen O, Goldberg A, Aharonson-Daniel L (2013) Conjoint community resiliency assessment measure-28/10 items (CCRAM28 and CCRAM10): a self-report tool for assessing community resilience. Am J Community Psychol 52:313–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liedtka SL (2005) Analytic hierarchy process and multi-criteria performance management systems. J Cost Manag 19:30

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin H-Y, Lin S-H, Chiu C-Y, Hung W-T, Chen C-Y (2010) An AHP approach to industry-oriented management competence development in an institute of technology. World Trans Eng Technol Educ 8:339–343

    Google Scholar 

  • Litman T (2006) Lessons from Katrina and Rita: what major disasters can teach transportation planners. J Transp Eng 132:11–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Longstaff PH, Armstrong NJ, Perrin K, Parker WM, Hidek M (2010) Building resilient communities a preliminary framework for assessment

  • Manyena SB (2006) The concept of resilience revisited. Disasters 30:434–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mayhorn CB, McLaughlin AC (2014) Warning the world of extreme events: a global perspective on risk communication for natural and technological disaster. Saf Sci 61:43–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mayunga JS (2007) Understanding and applying the concept of community disaster resilience: a capital-based approach. Summer Academy for Social Vulnerability and Resilience Building, 1–16

  • McDaniels T, Chang S, Cole D, Mikawoz J, Longstaff H (2008) Fostering resilience to extreme events within infrastructure systems: characterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation. Glob Environ Change 18:310–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Melón MG, Aragonés Beltran P, Carmen González Cruz M (2008) An AHP-based evaluation procedure for innovative educational projects: a face-to-face versus computer-mediated case study. Omega 36: 754–765

  • Memish ZA (2002) Infection control in Saudi Arabia: meeting the challenge. Am J Infect Control 30:57–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Memish Z (2010) The Hajj: communicable and non-communicable health hazards and current guidance for pilgrims. Euro Surveill 15:19671

    Google Scholar 

  • Morrissey SA, Reser JP (2007) Natural disasters, climate change and mental health considerations for rural Australia. Aust J Rural Health 15:120–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris F, Stevens S, Pfefferbaum B, Wyche K, Pfefferbaum R (2008) Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. Am J Community Psychol 41:127–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omar HM, Jaafar A (2011) Usability of educational computer game (Usa_ECG): applying analytic hierarchy process. Visual Informatics: Sustaining Research and Innovations. Springer

  • Önüt S, Soner S (2008) Transshipment site selection using the AHP and TOPSIS approaches under fuzzy environment. Waste Manag 28:1552–1559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paton D (2006) Disaster resilience: integrating individual, community, institutional and environmental perspectives. Disaster resilience: An integrated approach, 305–316

  • Perera S, Alinden C, Amaratunga R (2010) Investigating the status of disaster management within a world-wide context: a case study analysis

  • Saaty TL (1994) How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process. Interfaces 24:19–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saaty TL (1999) Basic theory of the analytic hierarchy process: how to make a decision. Rev de la Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales 93:395–423

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty TL (2008) Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 1:83–98

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty T, Vargas LLG (2001) Models, methods, concepts, and applications of the analytic hierarchy process. Springer, Berlin

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Saaty T, Vargas L (2012) The possibility of group choice: pairwise comparisons and merging functions. Soc Choice Welfare 38:481–496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salmeron JL, Herrero I (2005) An AHP-based methodology to rank critical success factors of executive information systems. Comput Stand Interfaces 28:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanneh E, Hu A, Hsu C-W, Njie M (2013) Prioritization of climate change adaptation approaches in the Gambia. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1–16

  • Shapira A, Simcha M (2009) AHP-based weighting of factors affecting safety on construction sites with tower cranes. J Constr Eng Manag 135:307–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sherrieb K, Norris F, Galea S (2010) Measuring capacities for community resilience. Soc Indic Res 99:227–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith H, Boruff B (2011) Recovery from the storm: resilience and the role of community capital in long-term disaster recovery in regional Western Australia

  • Srdjevic B (2007) Linking analytic hierarchy process and social choice methods to support group decision-making in water management. Decis Support Syst 42:2261–2273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson A, Erica S, John VA, Derek R (2010) Benchmark resilience a study of the resilience of organisations in the Auckland Region. New Zealand

  • Tahriri F, Osman MR, Ali A, Yusuff RM (2008) A review of supplier selection methods in manufacturing industries. Suranaree J Sci Technol 15:201–208

    Google Scholar 

  • Tam BY, Gough WA, Edwards V, Tsuji LJS (2013) The impact of climate change on the well-being and lifestyle of a First Nation community in the western James Bay region. Can Geogr Le Géographe Canadien 57:441–456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson JA, Sempier T, Swann L (2012) Increasing risk awareness: the coastal community resilience index. J Ext, 50, 4TOT5

  • Tianzhuo L, Linyan C (2014) Regional resilience based on natural disasters. Can Soc Sci 10:67–71

    Google Scholar 

  • Tierney KJ (2006) Social inequality, hazards and disasters. In: Daniels RJ, Kettl DF, Kunreuther H (eds) On risk and disaster: learning from Hurricane Katrina. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, pp 109–128

    Google Scholar 

  • Triantaphyllou E, Mann SH (1995) Using the analytic hierarchy process for decision making in engineering applications: some challenges. Int J Ind Eng Appl Pract 2:35–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Twigg J (2007) Characteristics of a disaster-resilient community: a guidance note. In: DFID disaster risk reduction interagency coordination group

  • UNISDR, U. N. O. F. D. R. R. 2009. Terminology on disaster risk reduction. Geneva, Switzerland

  • US Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program (2007) How resilient is your coastal community? A guide for evaluating coastal community resilience to tsunamis and other coastal hazards. U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program supported by the United States Agency for International Development and partners, Bangkok, Thailand, p 144

  • Vaidya OS, Kumar S (2006) Analytic hierarchy process: an overview of applications. Eur J Oper Res 169:1–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Viswanadhan K (2005) How to get responses for multi-criteria decisions in engineering education—an AHP based approach for selection of measuring instrument. Financial Support 20

  • Wedley WC (1990) Combining qualitative and quantitative factors—an analytic hierarchy approach. Socio-Econ Plan Sci 24:57–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson GA (2012) Community resilience, globalization, and transitional pathways of decision-making. Geoforum

  • Yang D-H, Kim S, Nam C, Min J-W (2007) Developing a decision model for business process outsourcing. Comput Oper Res 34:3769–3778

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Fu S (2012) An effective DEA-AHP algorithm for evaluation of emergency logistics performance. In: Advances in information sciences and service sciences, 4

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors sincerely thank all experts involving in the AHP panel for their survey responses and insightful comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Saud Ali Alshehri.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Alshehri, S.A., Rezgui, Y. & Li, H. Disaster community resilience assessment method: a consensus-based Delphi and AHP approach. Nat Hazards 78, 395–416 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1719-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1719-5

Keywords

Navigation