Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon and its application for assessment of impacts of the possible maximum storm surges in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We developed the new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon approaching any region under any climatic conditions by using a potential vorticity inversion method. Numerical simulations with the new typhoon bogussing scheme are conducted for assessment of storm surges by possible maximum typhoons under the present-day and global warming climatic conditions in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. The results suggest that the storm tide higher than the maximum storm tide in recorded history can occur in Ise and Tokyo Bays even for the present-day climate and the storm tide higher than the design sea level can cause severe damage to Nagoya and Tokyo megacities, in particular, airport facilities in Ise Bay for the global warming climate. These results suggest that the new typhoon bogussing scheme we developed is useful for assessment of impacts of storm surge by the possible maximum typhoons.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. T.P.: Tokyo Peil, means sea level of Tokyo Bay, this is used as the standard of altitude in Japan.

References

  • Booij N, Holthuijsen LH, Ris RC (1996) The SWAN wave model for shallow water. Proc 25th Int Conf Coast Eng 1:668–676

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidson NE, Wadsley J, Puri K, Kurihara K, Ueno M (1993) Implementation of the JMA typhoon bogus in the BMRC tropical prediction system. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 71:437–467

    Google Scholar 

  • Dudhia JA (1993) Nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State-NCAR mesoscale model: validation test and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon Weather Rev 121:1493–1513

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1987) The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326:483–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1995) Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J Atmos Sci 52:3969–3976

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) The physical science basis, working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishikawa H, Oku Y, Kim S, Takemi T, Yoshino J (2013) Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone. Hydrol Process. doi:10.1002/hyp.9830

    Google Scholar 

  • Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (2005) Report for extreme weather (in Japanese). JMA

  • Kawasaki K, Ohashi S, Suzuki K, Murakami T, Shimokawa S, Yasuda T (2012) Numerical simulation of storm surge inundation around Tokyo port due to possible maximum typhoon under global warming (in Japanese). Ann J Civil Eng Ocean B3-68:852–857

    Google Scholar 

  • Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Vecchi GA, Held IM (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nat Geosci 1:359–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDonald RE, Bleaken DG, Cresswell DR, Pope VD, Senior CA (2005) Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and impacts of climate change. Clim Dyn 25:19–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munich Re (2005) Topics Geo Annual review: natural catastrophes 2005. Munich Re

  • Murakami T, Yoshino J, Yasuda T (2008) A new simulation model of storm surges in Inland Sea affected by inflow from offshore and complicated winds. In: Proceedings of the 31st international conference on coastal engineering, pp 1147–1159

  • Murakami T, Yoshino J, Yasuda T, Iizuka S, Shimokawa S (2011) Atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled model performing 4DDA with a tropical cyclone bogussing scheme to calculate storm surges in an inner bay. Asian J Environ Disaster Manag 3:217–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oouchi K, Yoshimura J, Yoshimura H, Mizuta R, Kusunoki S, Noda A (2006) Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model: frequency and intensity analysis. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 84:259–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Science Council of Japan (SCJ) (2008) Toward sustainable association of nature and human in lands and ocean margins (in Japanese). SCJ

  • Ueno M (1989) Operational bogussing and numerical prediction of typhoon in JMA. JMA/NPD technical report no. 28, 48pp

  • Ueno M, Ohnogi K (1991) Changes in the preparing method of bogus typhoon. Summary report to WGNE meeting at NCAR, report no. 5, Boulder, CO, 13pp

  • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2007) Global Environment Outlook 4. UNEP

  • Yoshino J, Murakami T, Kobayashi K, Yasuda T (2008) An estimation method for potential maximum storm surge heights using a new tropical cyclone initialization scheme and a coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model. Solut Coast Disasters Conf 2008:256–267

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Dr. A. Ukai for useful comments and discussions. This research was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science through Grants Nos. 24360199 and 25400465, and by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention through a research project on the coastal disaster.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Storm, Flood, and Landslide Research Unit, National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, 305-0006, Japan

    Shinya Shimokawa, Tomokazu Murakami & Satoshi Iizuka

  2. Environmental and Renewable Energy Systems Division, Graduate School of Engineering, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu, 501-1193, Japan

    Jun Yoshino

  3. Aichi University of Technology, 50-2 Manori, Nishihasama-cho, Gamagori, 443-0047, Japan

    Takashi Yasuda

Authors
  1. Shinya Shimokawa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Tomokazu Murakami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Satoshi Iizuka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jun Yoshino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Takashi Yasuda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shinya Shimokawa.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Shimokawa, S., Murakami, T., Iizuka, S. et al. A new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon and its application for assessment of impacts of the possible maximum storm surges in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. Nat Hazards 74, 2037–2052 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1277-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1277-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation