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Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

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Abstract

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

The long wave propagation models, TUNAMI-N2 and TUNAMI-N3, used in this study are registered copyright of Professors F. Imamura, Ahmet C. Yalciner, and C. E. Synolakis. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO is thanked for funding the first author’s participation in the first international tsunami modeling course held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in May 2006. The first author would like to extend his sincere gratitude to Professor Emile A. Okal (Northwestern University, IL, USA) and Professor Costas E. Synolakis (University of Southern California, CA, USA) for their fruitful discussions during the Malaysia international course. This manuscript benefited from constructive reviews by two anonymous reviewers. We are sincerely grateful to the reviewers for comments that improved this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Enghelab Ave., P.O. Box 11155-4563, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Heidarzadeh & Moharram D. Pirooz

  2. Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Nasser H. Zaker

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Ocean Engineering Research Center, Middle East Technical University, 06531, Ankara, Turkey

    Ahmet C. Yalciner

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  1. Mohammad Heidarzadeh
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Correspondence to Mohammad Heidarzadeh.

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Heidarzadeh, M., Pirooz, M.D., Zaker, N.H. et al. Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Nat Hazards 48, 229–243 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9259-x

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