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Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China

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Abstract

The objective of the paper is to assess the impacts of climate change, population growth and economic development on water demand of Yulin city located in Shaanxi Province of northwest China by using system dynamics approach. Total water consumption is divided into different sectors following the technical specification used for the analysis of water supply and demand balance in China. Water demand in each sector is modeled separately to compute the total water demand. System dynamics models for water demand forecasting are developed by considering the environmental (water quality, ecosystem preservation) and socio-economic (population growth, water consumption, policy and management) factors of regional water demand, and their nonlinear interactions with the physical elements of hydrological processes (natural runoff, groundwater recharge). The model is calibrated by using historical data and then applied for forecasting water demand in Yulin city under projected changes in climate, population, and economy. The study reveals that total water demand in Yulin city will increase from approximately 710million-m3 in 2010 to more than 1480million-m3 in 2030. Total water demand under A1B scenario which lies near the high end of the spectrum for future greenhouse gas emissions will be 2.51million-m3 more compared to B1 scenario. This is due to the projection of higher temperature by A1B scenario. It is concluded that Yulin city should adopt water demand management strategy to achieve sustainability in water resources.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 010CB951104), Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund (No. Y513004), Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) (No. IWHR-SKL-201212), and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (No. 2013M530027) for financial support for this research. We acknowledge National Climate Center for providing the results of regional climate model simulations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, People’s Republic of China

    Wang Xiao-jun, Zhang Jian-yun & He Rui-min

  2. Research Centre for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, People’s Republic of China

    Wang Xiao-jun, Zhang Jian-yun & He Rui-min

  3. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Bejing, 100875, People’s Republic of China

    Wang Xiao-jun, Xia Xing-hui & Mou Xin-li

  4. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor, Malaysia

    Shahid Shamsuddin

  5. Research Centre for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, No. 225 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029, People’s Republic of China

    Wang Xiao-jun

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  1. Wang Xiao-jun
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Xiao-jun, W., Jian-yun, Z., Shamsuddin, S. et al. Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 20, 1–19 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9476-9

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