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Predicting fire occurrence patterns with logistic regression in Heilongjiang Province, China

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Abstract

Prediction of forest fire ignition may aid in forest fire vigilance and monitoring, and in prioritizing forest fuel treatments. In this paper, we chose easily obtained spatial variables pertaining to topography, vegetation types, meteorological conditions, climate, and human activity to predict forest fire ignition in Heilongjiang province, China, using logistic regression. Results showed fire ignition prediction through logistic regression had good accuracy. Climatic variables (e.g., average annual mean temperature and precipitation) and meteorological conditions (e.g., daily minimum temperature, daily minimum humidity, daily mean humidity, and mean wind speed) are the main determinants of natural forest fires. In the case of anthropogenic fires, vegetation types and human activity as indicated by distances to roads and settlements combined with suitable meteorological conditions (e.g., daily mean humidity) are the main driving factors. The fire ignition probability map can be easily used to prioritize areas for vigilance, to make decisions on allocating firefighting resources, and to select vulnerable spots for forest fuel treatments. It was found that forest fuel treatments should be focused on the Great Xing’an Mountains.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 31070422, 41201185, 41271201), and the Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05050201). We thank the Chinese Forestry Science Data Center (http://www.cfsdc.org/) for providing fire record data, and the China Meteorological Data sharing Service System (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/) for providing observational meteorological data. DEM data were provided by the International Scientific & Technical Data Mirror Site, Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://datamirror.csdb.cn). We thank the anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions that improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110164, China

    Yu Chang, Rencang Bu, Hongwei Chen, Yuting Feng, Yuehui Li & Yuanman Hu

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 20192, USA

    Zhiliang Zhu

  3. Heilongjiang Forest Fire Prevention Office, Harbin, 150090, China

    Zhicheng Wang

Authors
  1. Yu Chang
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  2. Zhiliang Zhu
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  3. Rencang Bu
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  4. Hongwei Chen
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  5. Yuting Feng
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  6. Yuehui Li
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  7. Yuanman Hu
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  8. Zhicheng Wang
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Correspondence to Yu Chang.

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Chang, Y., Zhu, Z., Bu, R. et al. Predicting fire occurrence patterns with logistic regression in Heilongjiang Province, China. Landscape Ecol 28, 1989–2004 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-013-9935-4

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