Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Precursor times of abnormal b-values prior to mainshocks

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Seismology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T) = q + rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3 ≤ M ≤ 9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aki K (1965) Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bm and its confidence limits. Bull Earthq Res Inst Tokyo Univ 43:237–239

    Google Scholar 

  • Aki K (1985) Theory of earthquake prediction with special reference to monitoring of the quality factor of lithosphere by the coda method. Earthquake Predict Res 3:219–230

    Google Scholar 

  • Aki K (1995) Earthquake prediction, societal implications. Rev Geophys Suppl: 243–247.

  • Bufe CG (1970) Frequency-magnitude variations during the 1970 Danville earthquake swarm. Earthquake Notes 41:3–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Burridge R, Knopoff L (1967) Model and theoretical seismicity. Bull Seism Soc Am 57:341–371

    Google Scholar 

  • Cao A, Gao SS (2002) Temporal variation of seismic b-values beneath northeastern Japan island arc. Geophys Res Lett 29 1334 48:1–3 doi:10.1029/2001GL013775.

  • Chan CH, Wu YM, Tseng TL, Lin TL, Chen CC (2012) Spatial and temporal evolution of b-values before large earthquakes in Taiwan. Tectonophys 532:215–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen CC (2003) Accelerating seismicity of moderate-size earthquakes before the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake: testing time-prediction of the self- organizing spinodal model of earthquakes. Geophys J Int 155:F1–F5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen T, Jiang D, Chen N, Lo Z, Han W, Zhang H, Xi D (1984a) Characteristics of seismic activity of the Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes. In: Evison et al. (eds) Earthquake Prediction Terra Scientific Publishing Co Tokyo Unesco Paris 79-89.

  • Chen Z, Liu P, Huang D, Zheng D, Xue F, Wang Z (1984b) Characteristics of regional seismicity before major earthquakes. In: Evison et al (eds) Earthquake Prediction. Terra Scientific Publishing Co Tokyo, Unesco Paris, pp 505–521

  • Chen KC, Wang JH, Yeh YL (1990) Premonitory phenomena of the May 10, 1983 Taipingshan, Taiwan earthquake. Terr Atmos Ocea Sci 1:1–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen YT, Chen ZL, Wang BQ (1992) Seismological studies of earthquake prediction in China: a review. In: Dragoni M, Boschi E (eds) Earthquake Prediction. Il Cigno Galileo Galilei, Roma, pp 71–109

  • DasGupta S, Mukhopadhyay B, Bhattacharya A (2007) Seismicity pattern in north Sumatra–Great Nicobar region: in search of precursor for the 26 December 2004 earthquake. J Earth Syst Sci 116(3):215–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DasGupta S, Mukhopadhyay B, Mukhopadhyay M (2012) Earthquake forerunner as probable precursor—an example from North Burma subduction zone. J Geol Soc India 80:393–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enescu B, Ito K (2001) Some premonitory phenomena of the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake: seismicity, b-value and fractal dimension. Tectonophys 338(3/4):297–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiedler G (1974) Local b-values related to seismicity. Tectonophys 23:277–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frohlich C, Davis SD (1993) Teleseismic b-values, or, much ado about 1.0. J Geophys Res 98:631–644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geller RJ (1997) Earthquake prediction: a critical review. Geophys J Int 131:425–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geller RJ, Jackson DD, Kagan YY, Mulargia F (1997) Geoscience—earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science 275:1616–1617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goebel THW, Becker TW, Schorlemmer D, Stanchits S, Sammis C, Rybacki E, Dresen G (2012) Identifying fault heterogeneity through mapping spatial anomalies in acoustic emission statistics. J Geophys Res 117:B03310. doi:10.1029/2011JB008763

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goebel THW, Schorlemmer D, Becker TW, Dresen G, Sammis CG (2013) Acoustic emissions document stress changes over many seismic cycles in stick–slip experiments. Geophys Res Lett 40:2049–2054. doi:10.1002/grl.50507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seism Soc Am 34:185–188

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanks TC, Kanamori H (1979) A moment magnitude scale. Bull Seism Soc Am 84:2348–2350

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasegawa A, Hasegawa T, Hori S (1975) Premonitory variation in seismic velocity related to the Southeastern Akita earthquake of 1970. J Phys Earth 23:189–203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imoto M (1991) Changes in the magnitude-frequency b-value prior to large (≥6.0) earthquakes in Japan. Tectonophys 193:311–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imoto M, Ishiguro M (1986) A Bayesian approach to the detection of changes in the magnitude-frequency of earthquakes. J Phys Earth 34:441–445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamori H, Anderson DL (1975) Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology. Bull Seism Soc Am 65:1073–1095

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanamori H, Heaton TH (2000) Microscopic and macroscopic physics of earthquakes. In: Rundle JB, Turcotte DL, Klein W (eds) Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes Geophys Monog 120. AGU, Washington D.C, pp 147–163

  • Khan PK, Ghosh M, Chakraborty PP, Mukherjee D (2011) Seismic b-value and the assessment of ambient stress in Northeast India. Pure Appl Geophys 168:1693–1706. doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0194-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiek SN (1984) Earthquake prediction from b-values. Nature 310:456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King GCP (1983) The accommodation of large strains in the upper lithosphere of the earth and other solids by self-similar fault systems: the geometrical origin of b-value. Pure Appl Geophys 121:762–815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knopoff L (1990) Earthquake prediction: the scientific challenge. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 93:3719–3720

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knopoff L (2000) The magnitude distribution of declustered earthquakes in Southern California. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 97:11880–11884

  • Knopoff L, Kagan YY, Knopoff R (1992a) b values for foreshocks and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences. Bull Seism Soc Am 72:1663–1676

  • Li Q, Chen J, Yu L, Hao B (1978) Time and space scanning of the b-value: a method for monitoring the development of catastrophic earthquake. Acta Geophys Sinica 21:101–125 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin CH (2010) Temporal b-value variations throughout a seismic faulting process: the 2008 Taoyuan earthquake in Taiwan. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 21(2):229–234. doi:10.3319/TAO.2009.02.09.01(T)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma H (1978) Variation of the b-values before several large earthquakes occurred in North China. Acta Geophys Sin 21:126–141 (in Chinese)

  • Ma H (1982) The spatial distribution of the b-value before large and moderate earthquakes. Acta Geophys Sin 25:163–171 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Main IG (1992) Earthquake scaling. Nature 357:27–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Main IG, Meredith PG (1989) Classification of earthquake precursors from a fracture mechanics model. Tectonophys 167:273–283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Main IG, Meredith PG, Jones C (1989) A reinterpretation of the precursory seismic b-value anomaly from fracture mechanics. Geophy J 96:131–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Main IG, Meredith PG, Sammonds PR (1992) Temporal variations in seismic event rate and b-values from stress corrosion constitutive laws. Tectonophys 211:233–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meredith PG, Atkinson BK (1983) Stress corrosion and acoustic emission during tensile crack propagation in Whin Sill dolerite and other basic rocks. Geophys J R Astro Soc 75:1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miyamura S (1962) Magnitude-frequency relation of earthquakes and its bearing on geotectonics. Proc Japan Acad 38:27–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Moatti A, Amin-Nasseri MR, Zafarani H (2013) Pattern recognition on seismic data for earthquake prediction purpose. Proceed. of the 2013 Intern. Conf. on Environment, Energy, Ecosystems and Development, 141–146

  • Mogi K (1967) Regional variations in magnitude-frequency relation of earthquakes. Bull Earthquake Res Inst Tokyo Univ 5:67–86

    Google Scholar 

  • Mogi K (1985) Earthquake Prediction. Academic Press London.

  • Nakaya S (2006) Spatiotemporal variation in b value within the subducting slab prior to the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M8.0), Japan. J Geophys Res 111:B03311. doi:10.1029/2005JB003658

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nanjo KZ, Hirata N, Obara K, Kasahara K (2012) Decade-scale decrease in b value prior to the M9-class 2011 Tohoku and 2004 Sumatra quakes. Geophys Res Lett 39:L20304. doi:10.1029/2012GL052997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patane D, Caltabiano T, Pezzo ED, Gresta S (1992) Time variation of b and Q c at Mt. Etna (1981–1987). Phys Earth Planet Inter 71:137–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Purcaru G, Berckhemer H (1978) A magnitude scale for very large earthquakes. Tectonophys 49:189–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake T (1975a) Dilatancy model and empirical formulas for an earthquake area. Pure Appl Geophys 113:141–147

  • Rikitake T (1975b) Earthquake precursors. Bull Seism Soc Am 65:1133–1162

  • Rikitake T (1978) Biosystem behavior as an earthquake precursor. Tectonophys 51:1–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake T (1979) Classification of earthquake precursors. Tectonophys 54:293–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake T (1984) Earthquake precursors. In: Evision et al. (eds) Earthquake Prediction Terra Scientific Publishing Co Tokyo Unesco Paris 3-21.

  • Rikitake T (1987) Earthquake precursors in Japan: precursor time and detectability. Tectonophys 136:265–282. doi:10.1016/0040-1951(87)90029-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahu OP, Saikia MM (1994) The b value before the 6th August, 1988 India-Myanmar border region earthquake: a case study. Tectonophys 234:349–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scholz CH (1968) The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes. Bull Seism Soc Am 58:399–415

    Google Scholar 

  • Scholz CH, Sykes LR, Aggarwal YP (1973) Earthquake prediction: a physical basis. Science 181:803–810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schorlemmer D, Wiemer S, Wyss M (2005) Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes. Nature 437:539–542. doi:10.1038/nature04094

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schurr B, Asch G, Hainzl S, Bedford J, Hoechner A, Palo M, Wang R, Moreno M, Bartsch M, Zhang Y, Oncken O, Tilmann F, Dahm T, Victor P, Barrientos S, Vilotte J-P (2014) Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Nature 512:299–302. doi:10.1038/nature13681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi Y, Bolt BA (1982) The standard error of the magnitude-frequency b value. Bull Seism Soc Am 72:1677–1687

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith WD (1981) The b-value as an earthquake precursor. Nature 289:136–139. doi:10.1038/289136a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith WD (1986) Evidence for precursory changes in the frequency-magnitude b-value. Geophys J R Astro Soc 86:815–838

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Srivastava HN, Dube RK, Chandhury MM (1984) Precursory seismic observations in the Himalayan region. In: Evision et al. (eds) Earthquake Prediction Terra Scientific Publishing Co Tokyo Unesco Paris 101-110.

  • Suyehiro S (1966) Difference between aftershocks and foreshocks in the relationship of magnitude to frequency of occurrence for the great Chilean earthquake of 1960. Bull Seism Soc Am 56:185–200

    Google Scholar 

  • Tormann T, Enescu B, Woessner J, Wiemer S (2015) Randomness of megathrust earthquakes implied by rapid stress recovery after the Japan earthquake. Nature Geosci 8:152–158. doi:10.1038/ngeo2343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsai YB, Liu JY, Ma KF, Yen HY, Chen KS, Chen YI, Lee CP (2006) Precursory phenomena associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan as identified under the iSTEP program. Phys Chem Earth 31:365–377. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2006.02.035

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsapanos TM (1990) b-values of two tectonic parts in the circum-Pacific belt. Pure Appl Geophys 134:229–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsubokawa I (1969) On relation between duration of crustal movement and magnitude of earthquake expected. J Geod Soc Japan 15:75–88 (in Japanese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsubokawa I (1973) On relation between duration of precursory phenomena and duration of crustal movement and magnitude before earthquake. J Geod Soc Japan 19:116–119 (in Japanese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang JH (1988) b values of shallow earthquakes in Taiwan. Bull Seism Soc Am 78:1243–1254

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang JH (1994) Scaling of synthetic seismicity from a one-dimensional dissipative, dynamic lattice model. Phys Lett A 191:398–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang JH (1995) Effect of seismic coupling on the scaling of seismicity. Geophys J Int 121:475–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang JH, Teng TL, Ma KF (1989) Temporal variation of coda Q during Hualien earthquake of 1986 in eastern Taiwan. Pure Appl Geophys 130:617–634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang JH, Chen KC, Leu PL, Chang JS (2015) Observations of b-values in Taiwan: a review. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 26(5):475–492. doi:10.3319/TAO.2015.04.28.01(T)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weeks J, Lockner D, Byerlee J (1978) Change in b-values during movement on cut surfaces in granite. Bull Seism Soc Am 76:333–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu YH, Chen CC, Rundle JB (2008) Precursory seismic activation of the Pingtung (Taiwan) offshore doublet earthquakes on December 26, 2006: a pattern informatics analysis. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 196:743–749

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wyss M., Lee WHK (1973) Time variation of the average earthquake magnitude in Central California, Proc. Conf. Tectonic Problems of the San Andreas Fault System School of Earth Sci Stanford Univ 24–42.

  • Wyss J, Klein FW, Johnston AC (1981) Precursors to the Kalapana M=7.2 earthquakes. J Geophys Res 86(B5):3881–3900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao YZ, Wu ZL (2008) Mapping the b-values along the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan, China, M S 8.0 earthquake. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 8(suppl):1375–1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was financially supported by Academia Sinica, the Ministry of Science and Technology (Grand No.: MOST 103-2116-M-001-010), and the Central Weather Bureau (Grand Nos.: MOTC-CWB-104-E-07 and MOTC-CWB-105-E-07), ROC.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, P.O. Box 1-55, Taipei, Taiwan

    Jeen-Hwa Wang & Kou-Cheng Chen

  2. Seismological Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan

    Peih-Lin Leu & Chien-Hsin Chang

Authors
  1. Jeen-Hwa Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kou-Cheng Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Peih-Lin Leu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Chien-Hsin Chang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jeen-Hwa Wang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, JH., Chen, KC., Leu, PL. et al. Precursor times of abnormal b-values prior to mainshocks. J Seismol 20, 905–919 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-016-9567-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-016-9567-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation