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Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation: A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change

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Abstract

The question of whether or not biofuels help mitigate climate change has attracted much debate in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents land-use change impacts due to the expansion of biofuels, our study attempts to shed some light on this question. Our study shows that if biofuel mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40 countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using crop feedstocks and if both forests and pasture lands are used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion, this would cause net release of GHG emissions to the atmosphere until 2043 as the GHG emissions released through land-use change exceeds the reduction of emissions due to replacement of gasoline and diesel. On the other hand, if the use of forest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands to meet the demand for new lands, the net release of GHG emissions would cease by 2021, a year after the full implementation of the mandates and targets.

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Abbreviations

AEEI:

Autonomous energy efficiency improvement

AEZ:

Agro-ecological zone

AT:

Announced targets

CDE:

Constant difference of elasticities

CES:

Constant elasticity of substitution

CET:

Constant elasticity of transformation

CGE:

Computable general equilibrium

CO2 :

Carbon dioxide

ECA:

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

EAP:

East Asia and Pacific

EFTA:

European Free Trade Association

ET:

Enhanced targets

EU:

European Union

GDP:

Gross domestic product

GHG:

Greenhouse gases

GTAP:

Global trade analysis project

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

LAC:

Latin America and Caribbean

MENA:

Middle East and North Africa

ND:

Non-energy intermediate demand

SA:

South Asia

SAM:

Social accounting matrix

SSA:

Sub-Saharan Africa

UK:

United Kingdom

US:

United States

VAE:

Value added and energy

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Correspondence to Govinda R. Timilsina.

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Timilsina, G.R., Mevel, S. Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation: A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change. Environ Resource Econ 55, 1–19 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-012-9609-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-012-9609-8

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