Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data

  • Published:
Environmental and Resource Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Avila, L. A. (1998), Preliminary Report: Hurricane Bonnie, 19–30 August 1998. National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998bonnie.html, October

  • R. Berrens R. Adams (1998) ArticleTitle‘Using Contingent Valuation to Design Fee Hunting Programs: Oregon Pheasant Hunting Revisited’ Human Dimensions of Wildlife 3 IssueID3 24–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Beven, J. (2000), Preliminary Report: Hurricane Dennis 24 August–7 September 1999. National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999dennis_text.html, January

  • P. A. Diamond J. A. Hausman (1996) ArticleTitle‘Contingent Valuation: Is Some Number Better than No Number?’ Journal of Economic Perspectives 8 IssueID4 45–64

    Google Scholar 

  • J. E. Freund R. E. Walpole (1980) Mathematical Statistics EditionNumber3 Prentice-Hall Englewood Cliffs, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  • W. H. Greene (1999) Econometric Analysis EditionNumber3 Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  • W. H. Greene (2002) LIMDEP Version 8.0 User’s Manual Econometric Software, Inc Plainview, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • T. Grijalva R. P. Berrens A. K. Bohara W. D. Shaw (2002) ArticleTitle‘Testing the Validity of Contingent Behavior Trip Responses’ American Journal of Agricultural Economics 84 IssueID2 401–414 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1467-8276.00306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • M. K. Haener P. C. Boxall W. L. Adamowicz (2001) ArticleTitle‘Modeling Recreation Site Choice: Do Hypothetical Choices Reflect Actual Behavior?’ American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83 IssueID3 629–642 Occurrence Handle10.1111/0002-9092.00183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • W. M. Hanemann (1994) ArticleTitle‘Valuing the Environment through Contingent Valuation’ Journal of Economic Perspectives 8 IssueID4 19–44

    Google Scholar 

  • N. Hanley D. Bell B. Alvarez-Farizo (2003) ArticleTitle‘Valuing the Benefits of Coastal Water Quality Improvements Using Contingent and Real Behaviour’ Environmental and Resource Economics 24 IssueID3 273–285 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1022904706306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. A. List C. A. Gallet (2001) ArticleTitle‘What Experimental Protocol Influence Disparities Between Actual and Hypothetical Values?’ Environmental and Resource Economics 20 IssueID3 241–254 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1012791822804

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. B. Loomis (1993) ArticleTitle‘An Investigation in the Reliability of Intended Visitation Behavior’ Environmental and Resource Economics 3 IssueID2 183–191 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF00338784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pasch, R. J., T. B. Kimberlain and S. R. Stewart (2000), Preliminary Report: Hurricane Floyd, 7–17 September 1999. National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999floyd_ text. html, January

  • Tropical Prediction Center (1999), The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.html, July 14

  • J. C. Whitehead (2003) ArticleTitle‘One Million Dollars per Mile? The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation’ Ocean and Coastal Management 46 IssueID11–12 1069–1083 Occurrence Handle10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2003.11.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J. C. Whitehead B. Edwards M. Willigen ParticleVan J. R. Maiolo K. Wilson K. T. Smith (2000) ArticleTitle‘Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior’ Environmental Hazards 2 IssueID3 133–142 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S1464-2867(01)00013-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, 28608-2051, USA

    John C. Whitehead

Authors
  1. John C. Whitehead
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to John C. Whitehead.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Whitehead, J.C. Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data. Environ Resource Econ 32, 301–316 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-005-4679-5

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-005-4679-5

Key words

JEL classification

Search

Navigation