Abstract
Multiple climate change vulnerability assessments in the Pacific Northwest region of the USA provide the scientific information needed to begin adaptation in forested landscapes. Adaptation options developed by resource managers in conjunction with these assessments, newly summarized in the Climate Change Adaptation Library of the Western United States, provide an extensive choice of peer-reviewed climate-smart management strategies and tactics. More adaptation options are available for vegetation than for any other resource category, allowing vegetation management to be applied across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Good progress has been made in strategic development and planning for climate change adaptation in the Northwest, although on-the-ground implementation is in the early stages. However, recent regulatory mandates plus the increasing occurrence of extreme events (drought, wildfires, insect outbreaks) provide motivation to accelerate the adaptation process in planning and management on federal lands and beyond. Timely implementation of adaptation and collaboration across boundaries will help ensure the functionality of Northwest forests at broad spatial scales in a warmer climate.
References
Abatzoglou JT (2013) Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling. Int J Climatol 33:121–131
Abatzoglou JT, Brown TJ (2012) A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications. Int J Climatol 32:772–780
Abatzoglou JT, Rupp DE, Mote PW (2014) Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. J Clim 27:2125–2142
Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H et al (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manag 259:660–684
Bachelet D, Lenihan JM, Daly C et al (2001) MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated ecosystem fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and water. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
Bierbaum R, Smith JB, Lee A et al (2013) A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18:361–406. doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9423-1
Buotte PC, Peterson DL, McKelvey KS, Hicke JA (2016) Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources. J Environ Manag 169:313–318
Carey AB, Harrington CA (2001) Small mammals in young forests: implications for management for sustainability. For Ecol Manag 154:289–309
Chmura DJ, Anderson PD, Howe GT et al (2011) Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management. For Ecol Manag 261:1121–1142. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2010.12.040
Churchill DJ, Larson AJ, Dahlgreen MC et al (2013) Restoring forest resilience: from reference spatial patterns to silvicultural prescriptions and monitoring. For Ecol Manag 291:442–457
Clark JS, Iverson L, Woodall CW et al (2016) The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States. Glob Change Biol 22:2329–2352
Cross MS, McCarthy PD, Garfin G et al (2013) Accelerating adaptation of natural resource management to address climate change. Conserv Biol 27:4–13. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01954.x
Dalton MM, Mote PW, Snover AK (2013) Climate change in the northwest: implications for our landscapes, waters and communities. Island Press, Washington
Dymond CC, Tedder S, Spittlehouse DL et al (2014) Diversifying managed forests to increase resilience. Can J For Res 44:1196–1205. doi:10.1139/cjfr-2014-0146
Federal Register (2012) National Forest System land management planning. Final rule and record of decision
Grotta AT, Creighton JH, Schnepf C, Kantor S (2013) Family forest owners and climate change: understanding, attitudes, and educational needs. J Forest 111:87–93. doi:10.5849/jof.12-052
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL (2016) Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA. Atmosphere. doi:10.3390/atmos7030046
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL (2017) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Aubry C et al (2011a) Climate change and vegetation management at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. In: Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, O’Halloran K, Hawkins Hoffman C (eds) Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, pp 61–90
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, O’Halloran KA, Hawkins-Hoffman C (2011b) Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Marcinkowski KW (2015) Climate change adaptation in United States federal natural resource science and management agencies: a synthesis. U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Change Adaptation Interagency Working Group
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Dante-Wood SK et al (2017) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins
Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Joyce LA et al (2014) Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the United States. In: Sample VA, Bixler RP (eds) Forest conservation and management in the anthropocene: conference proceedings. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, pp 229–243
Hicke JA, Meddens AJ, Kolden CA (2016) Recent tree mortality in the western United States from bark beetles and forest fires. For Sci 62:141–153
Joyce LA, Blate GM, McNulty SG et al (2009) Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests. Environ Manag 44:1022–1032
Keane RE, Mahalovich MF, Bollenbacher B et al (2017) Forest vegetation. In: Halofsky JE, Peterson DL, Dante-Wood SK et al (eds) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rockies. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins
Kerns BK, Powell DC, Mellmann-Brown S et al (2016) Effects of climatic variability and change on upland vegetation in the Blue Mountains. In: Halofsky JE, Peterson DL (eds) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
Kolb TE, Fettig CJ, Ayres MP, et al (2016) Observed and anticipated impacts of drought on forest insects and diseases in the United States
Latta G, Temesgen H, Adams D, Barrett T (2010) Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest. For Ecol Manag 259:720–729
Lawler JJ (2009) Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1162:79–98
Littell JS, Peterson DL, Tjoelker M (2008) Douglas-fir growth in mountain ecosystems: water limits tree growth from stand to region. Ecol Monogr 78:349–368. doi:10.1890/07-0712.1
Littell JS, Oneil EE, McKenzie D et al (2010) Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Clim Chang 102:129–158. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9858-x
Littell JS, Peterson DL, Millar CI, O’Halloran KA (2012) U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through science–management partnerships. Clim Chang 110:269–296. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0066-0
Littell JS, Hicke JA, Shafer SL et al (2013) Forest ecosystems. In: Dalton MM, Mote PW, Snover AK (eds) Climate change in the Northwest. Island Press, Washington, pp 110–148
Littell JS, Raymond CL, Rochefort RM, Klein SL (2014) Climate change and vegetation in the North Cascade Range. In: Raymond CL, Peterson DL, Rochefort RM (eds) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region. Washington. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, pp 113–117
Luce CH, Holden ZA (2009) Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948–2006. Geophys Res Lett 36:n/a-n/a. doi: 10.1029/2009GL039407
Luce C, Morgan P, Dwire K et al (2012) Climate change, forests, fire, water, and fish: building resilient landscapes, streams, and managers. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins
Luce C, Abatzoglou J, Holden Z (2013) The missing mountain water: slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA. Science 342:1360–1364
Luce CH, Vose JM, Pederson N, et al (2016) Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty
van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL, Byrne JC et al (2009) Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States. Science 323:521–524
Meadow AM, Ferguson DB, Guido Z et al (2015) Moving toward the deliberate coproduction of climate science knowledge. Weather Clim Soc 7:179–191
Meddens AJ, Hicke JA, Ferguson CA (2012) Spatiotemporal patterns of observed bark beetle-caused tree mortality in British Columbia and the western United States. Ecol Appl 22:1876–1891
Millar CI, Stephenson NL (2015) Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science 349:823–826
Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17:2145–2151. doi:10.1890/06-1715.1
Millar CI, Swanston CW, Peterson DL (2014) Adapting to climate change. In Climate change and United States forests. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 183–222
Morelli TL, Daly C, Dobrowski SZ et al (2016) Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation. PLoS One 11:e0159909. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0159909
Mote PW (2006) Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America*. J Clim 19:6209–6220
Mote PW, Salathe EP (2010) Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Clim Chang 102:29–50
Naiman RJ, Decamps H (1997) The ecology of interfaces: riparian zones. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 28:621–658
National Park Service [NPS] (2010) National Park Service climate change response strategy. National Park Service Climate Change Response Program. Fort Collins, Colorado
Noble IR, Huq S, Anokhin YA, et al (2014) Adaptation needs and options. Pages 833–868 In Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, et al (eds.) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part a: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York
Peterson DL, Millar CI, Joyce LA et al (2011) Responding to climate change in national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
Pollock MM, Heim M, Werner D (2003) Hydrologic and geomorphic effects of beaver dams and their influence on fishes. Amer Fish Soc Symp 37:213–233
Raymond CL, Peterson DL, Rochefort RM (2013) The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership: a science-management collaboration for responding to climate change. Sustainability 5:136–159
Raymond CL, Peterson DL, Rochefort RM (2014) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region. Washington. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
Restaino CM, Peterson DL, Littell JS (2016) Increased water deficit decreases Douglas-fir growth throughout western US forests. Proc Nat Acad Sci, USA 113:9557–9562
Sample VA, Halofsky JE, Peterson DL (2014) US strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making. Ann For Sci 71:125–130. doi:10.1007/s13595-013-0288-6
Seidl R, Spies TA, Peterson DL et al (2016) Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services. J Appl Ecol 53:120–129
Spies TA, Giesen TW, Swanson FJ et al (2010) Climate change adaptation strategies for federal forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA: ecological, policy, and socio-economic perspectives. Landsc Ecol 25:1185–1199. doi:10.1007/s10980-010-9483-0
Stavros EN, Abatzoglou JT, McKenzie D, Larkin NK (2014) Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States. Clim Chang 126:455–468. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6
Stein BA, Staudt A, Cross MS et al (2013) Preparing for and managing change: climate adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 11:502–510. doi:10.1890/120277
Stephens SL, Millar CI, Collins BM (2010) Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates. Environ Res Lett 5:24003
Swanston C, Janowiak M (2012) Forest adaptation resources: climate change tools and approaches for land managers. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Newtown Square
Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase in western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940. doi:10.1126/science.1128834
Yohe G, Leichenko R (2010) Adopting a risk-based approach. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1196:29–40
Acknowledgements
We thank the many individuals from the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, and other organizations who participated in adaptation workshops and contributed to the Climate Change Adaptation Library.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is part of a Special Issue on ‘Vulnerability Assessment of US Agriculture and Forests developed by the USDA Climate Hubs’ edited by Jerry L. Hatfield, Rachel Steele, Beatrice van Horne, and William Gould.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Halofsky, J.E., Peterson, D.L. & Prendeville, H.R. Assessing vulnerabilities and adapting to climate change in northwestern U.S. forests. Climatic Change 146, 89–102 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1972-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1972-6