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Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the Central Great Plains, USA

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Abstract

Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) in the U.S. Central Great Plains (Akron, Colorado) were simulated using the CERES V4.0 crop modules in RZWQM2. The CC scenarios for CO2, temperature and precipitation were based on a synthesis of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) projections for Colorado. The CC for years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 (CC projection years) were super-imposed on measured baseline climate data for 15–17 years collected during the long-term WF and WCF (1992–2008), and WCM (1994–2008) experiments at the location to provide inter-annual variability. For all the CC projection years, a decline in simulated wheat yield and an increase in actual transpiration were observed, but compared to the baseline these changes were not significant (p > 0.05) in all cases but one. However, corn and proso millet yields in all rotations and projection years declined significantly (p < 0.05), which resulted in decreased transpiration. Overall, the projected negative effects of rising temperatures on crop production dominated over any positive impacts of atmospheric CO2 increases in these dryland cropping systems. Simulated adaptation via changes in planting dates did not mitigate the yield losses of the crops significantly. However, the no-tillage maintained higher wheat yields than the conventional tillage in the WF rotation to year 2075. Possible effects of historical CO2 increases during the past century (from 300 to 380 ppm) on crop yields were also simulated using 96 years of measured climate data (1912–2008) at the location. On average the CO2 increase enhanced wheat yields by about 30%, and millet yields by about 17%, with no significant changes in corn yields.

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Abbreviations

CT:

conventional tillage

DSSAT:

decision support system for agrotechnology transfer

E:

model efficiency

FACE:

free air CO2 enrichment

GCM:

General Circulation Model

GHG:

green house gas

HFCs:

Hydrofluorocarbons

IPCC SRES:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission special emission scenarios

IPCC:

intergovernmental panel on climate change

LAI:

leaf area index

NT:

no-tillage

PFCs:

Perfluorocarbons

RMSD:

root mean square difference

RZWQM:

root zone water quality model

SD:

standard deviation

WCF:

wheat-corn-fallow

WCM:

wheat-corn-millet

WF:

wheat-fallow

WUE:

water use efficiency

SF6 :

Sulphur hexafluoride

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Author notes

  1. Jonghan Ko

    Present address: Chonnam National University, 300 Youngbong-dong, Buk-gu, Gwangju, 500-757, Republic of Korea

Authors and Affiliations

  1. USDA-ARS Agricultural Systems Research Unit, 2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg D., Ft. Collins, CO, 80526, USA

    Jonghan Ko, Lajpat R. Ahuja, S. A. Saseendran, Timothy R. Green & Liwang Ma

  2. USDA-ARS Central Great Plains Research Station, 40335 County Road GD, Akron, CO, 80720, USA

    David C. Nielsen

  3. USDA-ARS, Office of National Programs, 5601 Sunnyside Ave., Beltsville, MD, 20705, USA

    Charles L. Walthall

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  1. Jonghan Ko
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  2. Lajpat R. Ahuja
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Correspondence to Lajpat R. Ahuja.

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Ko, J., Ahuja, L.R., Saseendran, S.A. et al. Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the Central Great Plains, USA. Climatic Change 111, 445–472 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0175-9

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