Abstract
The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model simulation has been carried out for the 2000–2100 period to investigate the impacts of future Indian greenhouse gas emission scenarios on the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide besides other parameters like radiative forcing and temperature. For this purpose, the default global GHG (Greenhouse Gases) inventory was modified by incorporation of Indian GHG emission inventories which have been developed using three different approaches namely (a) Business-As-Usual (BAU) approach, (b) Best Case Scenario (BCS) approach and (c) Economy approach (involving the country’s GDP). The model outputs obtained using these modified GHG inventories are compared with various default model scenarios such as A1B, A2, B1, B2 scenarios of AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) and P50 scenario (median of 35 scenarios given in MAGICC). The differences in the range of output values for the default case scenarios (i.e., using the GHG inventories built into the model) vis-à-vis modified approach which incorporated India-specific emission inventories for AIM and P50 are quite appreciable for most of the modeled parameters. A reduction of 7% and 9% in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has been observed respectively for the years 2050 and 2100. Global methane (CH4) and global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions indicate a reduction of 13% and 15% respectively for 2100. Correspondingly, global concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O are estimated to reduce by about 4%, 4% and 1% respectively. Radiative forcing of CO2, CH4 and N2O indicate reductions of 6%, 14% and 4% respectively for the year 2100. Global annual mean temperature change (incorporating aerosol effects) gets reduced by 4% in 2100. Global annual mean temperature change reduces by 5% in 2100 when aerosol effects have been excluded. In addition to the above, the Indian contributions in global CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions have also been assessed by India Excluded (IE) scenario. Indian contribution in global CO2 emissions was observed in the range of 10%–26%, 6%–36% and 10%–38% respectively for BCS, Economy and BAU approaches, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2100 for P50, A1B-AIM, A2-AIM, B1-AIM & B2-AIM scenarios. CH4 and N2O emissions indicate about 4%–10% and 2%–3% contributions respectively in the global CH4 and N2O emissions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2100. These Indian GHG emissions have significant influence on global GHG concentrations and consequently on climate parameters like RF and ∆T. The study reflects not only the importance of Indian emissions in the global context but also underlines the need of incorporation of country specific GHG emissions in modeling to reduce uncertainties in simulation of climate change parameters.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alcamo J (ed) (1994) IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modelling of Global Change. The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht
ALGAS (1998) India national report on Asia least-cost greenhouse gas abatement strategy. Manila, the Philippines: Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Development Programme. (www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/ALGAS/ind/India.exe)
Bhattacharya S, Mitra AP (2004) A scientific analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends in India. Scientific Report Number 20, Centre on Global Change, NPL, New Delhi
CEA (2005) Central electricity authority, government of India http://cea.in/exe_summary/aug/6.pdf
CMIE (2001) Centre for monitoring Indian economy http://www.cmie.com
Crutzen PJ (2002) Geology of mankind. Nature 415(3):23
Cubasch U, Meehl GA (2001) Projections of future climate change. In Climate Change 2001 - The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I of the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp 526–582
ECS (2006–07) http://www.finmin.nic.in/the_ministry/dept_eco_affairs/economic_div/eco_survey/index.htm
Edmonds J, Wise M, Pitcher H, Richels R, Wigley T, MacCracken C (1996a) An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies: an application of MiniCAM 1.0. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 1(4):311–339
Edmonds J, Wise M, Sands R, Brown R, Kheshgi H (1996b) Agriculture, land-use, and commercial biomass energy: a preliminary integrated analysis of the potential role of biomass energy for reducing future greenhouse related emissions. PNNL11155. Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, Washington DC
Fishbone LG, Abilock H (1981) MARKAL-Alinear Programming Model for Energy Systems Analysis: Technical Description of the BNL Version. Int J Energ Res 5:353–375
Fishbone LG, Giesen G, Hymmen H A, Stocks M, Vos H H, Wilde D, Zoelcher R, Balzer C, Abilock H (1983) MARKAL: A Multiperiod, Linear Programming Model for Energy Systems Analysis. BNL, Upton, NY and KFA, Julich, Germany. BNL 51701
Friedlingstein P, Solomon S (2005) Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide. PNAS 102(31):10832–10836
Füssel HM (2009) An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Climatic Change 97:469–482
Garg A, Shukla PR, Kapshe MM (2006) The sectoral trends of multigas emissions inventory of India. Atmos Environ 40:4608–4620
IEA (2006) International energy agency. www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/index.asp
IPCC (2001a) Climate change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University press, Cambridge
IPCC (2001b) Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University press, Cambridge
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers: Contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland. http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_Approved_05Feb.pdf http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/pages_media/FAR4docs/chapters/TS_WGIII_220607.pdf
Matsuoka Y (2000) Extrapolation of carbon dioxide emission scenarios to meet long-term atmospheric stabilization targets. Environ Econ Pol Stud 3:255–265
Messner S, Strubegger M (1995) User’s guide for MESSAGE III, WP-95-69. International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IASA), Laxenburg Austria
Mittal ML, Sharma C (2004) Anthropogenic emissions from energy activities in India: Generation and source characterization. Emissions from thermal power generation in India, Part I (http://www.osc.edu/research/pcrm/emissions/partI.shtml)
MoC (2006–07) Ministry of coal. http://coal.nic.in/ann0405chap1.pdf
MoP (2006–07) Ministry of power. www.powermin.nic.in
Morita T, Matsuoka Y (1993) AIM -Asia Pacific Integrated Model for evaluating policy options to reduce GHG emissions and global warming impacts. Global warming issue in Asia, Asian Institute of Technology, 254–273
MOSPI (2006) Ministry of statistics and planning implementation. http://www.mospi.nic.in/press_note_31jan06.htm
Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
NATCOM (2004) India’s Initial National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of environment and forests, New Delhi. (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/indnc1.pdf)
PC (2002a) http://planningcommission.nic.in/midterm/english-pdf/chapter-01.pdf http://planningcommission.nic.in/midterm/english-pdf/chapter-10.pdf http://planningcommission.nic.in/midterm/english-pdf/chapter-12.pdf
PC (2002b) http://www.planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/pl_vsn2020.pdf, http://www.planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/plstaf.htmhttp://www.planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/bkpaper2020/iv_bg2020.pd
Peters GP, Marland G, Hertwich EG, Saikku L, Rautiainen A, Kauppi P (2009) Trade, transport and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: an editorial essay. Climatic Change 97:379–388
Prinn P, Paltsev S, Sokolov A, Sarofim M, Reilly J, Jacoby H (2011) Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches. Climatic Change 104:515–537
Salinger MJ (2005) Climate variability and change: past, present and future-an overview. Climatic Change 70:9–29
Shukla PR (2006) India’s GHG emission scenarios: aligning development and stabilization paths. Curr Sci 90(3):384–395
Shukla PR, Garg A, Sharma KK, Kapshe M (2004) Emission scenarios and CO2 emission projections. Proceedings of the Workshop on Scenarios and Future Emissions held on 22 July 2003 at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India
Wigley TML (1993) Balancing the carbon budget -implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes. Tellus 45B:409–425
Wigley TML (2000) Stabilization of CO2 concentration levels. In: Wigley TML, Schimel DS (eds) The carbon cycle. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 258–276
Wigley TML (2003a) MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1: Technical manual. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, USA
Wigley TML (2003b) Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways. OECD workshop on the benefits of climate policy: Improving information for policy makers
Wigley TML (2006) Statistical issues regarding trends. In: Karl TR, Hassol SJ, Miller CD, Murray WL (eds) Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: steps for understanding and reconciling differences. A report by the climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research, Washington, DC, pp 129–139
Wigley TML (2009) The effect of changing climate on frequency of absolute extreme events. Climatic Change 97:67–76
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (1992) Implications for Climate and Sea Level of Revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature 357:293–300
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (1997) Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC Version 2.3.). The Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293:451–454
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2002) Reasons for larger warming projections in the IPCC third assessment report. J Clim 15:2945–2952
Wigley TML, Smith SJ, Prather MJ (2002) Radiative forcing due to reactive gas emissions. J Clim 15:2690–2696
Acknowledgements
Authors are grateful to Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK and the National Communications Support Program, UNDP/GEF, New York, USA for providing MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1 code and to Prof. M. Zafar, Chairman, Department of Physics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India for providing all the necessary facilities for this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sharma, M., Sharma, C. & Qaiyum, A. Impacts of future Indian greenhouse gas emission scenarios on projected climate change parameters deduced from MAGICC model. Climatic Change 111, 425–443 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0141-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0141-6