Skip to main content
Log in

Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia

A Letter

  • Letter
  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

References

  • Amissah-Arthur A (2003) Targeting climate forecasts for agricultural applications in sub-Saharan Africa: situating farmers in user-space. Clim Change 58:20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buckley BM, Anchukaitis KJ, Penny D, Fletcher R, Cook ER, Sano M, Nam LC, Wichienkeeo A, Minh TT, Hong TM (2010) Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(15):5. doi:10.1073/pnas.0910827107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, D’Arrigo RD, Jacoby GC, Wright WE (2010) Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science 328(486):4. doi:10.1126/science.1185188

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian TT (2004) A global dataset of palmer drought severity index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5(6):1117–1130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J (2002) Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agric Syst 74:21

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Challinor A, Ines A, Wheeler T, Moron V (2006) Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Clim Res 33:27–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 83(8):1149–1165

    Google Scholar 

  • Holling CS (2001) Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems 4:390–405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Q, Zillig LMP, Lynne GD, Tomkins AJ, Waltman WJ, Hayes MJ, Hubbard KG, Artikov I, Hoffman SJ, Wilhite DA (2006) Understanding farmers’ forecast use from their beliefs, values, social norms, and perceived obstacles. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 45(9):1190–1201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ingram K, Roncoli C, Kirshen P (2002) Opportunities and constraints for farmers of West Africa to use seasonal precipitation with burkina faso as a case study. Agric Syst 74:331–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. In Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds) Contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland

  • Klopper E, Vogel C, Landman W (2006) Seasonal climate forecasts—potential agricultural-risk management tools? Clim Change 76:8. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9019-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar A, Chen M, Wang W (2010) An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability. Climate Dynamics (in press). doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0901-4

  • Lee JY, Wang B, Kang IS, Shukla J, Kumar A, Kug JS, Schemm JKE, Luo JJ, Yamagata T, Fu X, Alves O, Stern B, Rosati T, Park CK (2010) How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle? Clim Dyn 35:17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lemos MC, Finan TJ, Fox RW, Nelson DR, Tucker J (2002) The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: lessons from northeast brazil. Clim Change 55(4):479–507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCrea R, Dalgleish L, Coventry W (2005) Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers. Int J Climatol 25(8):1127–1137. doi:10.1002/joc.1164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Clim Change 70:33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Climate change: stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863):573–574. doi:10.1126/science.1151915

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phelps MW, Kumar A, O’Brien JJ (2004) Potential predictability in the ncep cpc dynamical seasonal forecast system. J Clim 11

  • Podestá G, Letson D, Messina C, Rocye F, Ferreyra A, Jones J, Llovet I, Hansen J, Grondona M, O’Brien J (2002) Use of enso-related climate information in agricultural decision making in argentina: a pilot experience. Agric Syst 74:22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roncoli C (2006) Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers’ responses to climate predictions. Clim Res 33:19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roncoli C, Jost C, Kirshen P, Sanon M, Ingram K, Woodin M, Somé L, Outtara F, Sanfo B, Sia C, Yaka P, Hoogenboom G (2009) From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in burkina faso (West Africa). Clim Change 92:28. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9445-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sachs JD (2005) The end of poverty: economic possibilities for our time, 1st edn. Penguin Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Change-Human Policy Dimens 16:11

    Google Scholar 

  • Stern PC, Easterling WE (1999) Making climate forecasts matter. National Academy Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Ziervogel G, Calder R (2003) Climate variability and rural livelihoods: assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts in lesotho. Area 35(4):15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ziervogel G, Downing T (2004) Stakeholder networks: improving seasonal climate forecasts. Clim Change 65:29

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew R. Bell.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

(PDF 562 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Bell, A.R., Cook, B.I., Anchukaitis, K.J. et al. Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia. Climatic Change 106, 691–698 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0064-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0064-2

Keywords

Navigation