Abstract
The understanding of the ongoing climate change needs high-resolution records of the past, which are difficult to obtain in north-central China. Historical documents are unique materials for high-resolution (up to season) climate change reconstruction. Here, we report an attempt of quantitative climate reconstruction covering the main part of north-central China, by combining historical drought/flood index and tree-ring data. The rigorous verification tests confirm the fidelity of transfer functions used in the reconstructions. The precipitation and temperature anomalies/intervals were then defined based on the reconstructions. Finally, the intensity of several big droughts recorded in historical documents was re-examined and the dominant and recessive patterns of heat/water changes within the study area were identified. We concluded that (1) the droughts, occurred during the years of 1484 AD, 1585–1587 AD, 1689–1691 AD, 1784–1786 AD and 1876–1878 AD, were the results of rainless and torrid combination; (2) the droughts, occurred during the years of 1560–1561 AD, 1599–1601 AD, 1609 AD, 1615–1617 AD, 1638–1641 AD and 1899–1901 AD, were first caused by rainless summer, and then controlled by low precipitation and/or high temperature; (3) the droughts, occurred during the years of 1527–1529 AD, 1720–1722 AD, 1813–1814 AD, 1856–1857 AD and 1926–1930 AD, were first caused by torrid summer, and then controlled by both low precipitation and high temperature; (4) the dominant climate pattern within the study area consisted of warm–dry and cold–wet alternations, and the recessive pattern consisted of cold–dry and warm–wet alternations. We also showed that the drought/flood index is a valuable climate proxy in quantitative reconstructions, especially in places where tree-ring data is not available.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allan RJ, Lindesay JA, Parker DE (1996) El Niño, southern oscillation & climatic variability. CSIRO, Australia
Briffa KR, Jones PD, Bartholin TS, Echstein D, Schweingruber FH, Karlén W, Zetterberg P, Eronen M (1992) Fennoscandian summers from AD 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales. Clim Dyn 7:111–119
Briffa KR, Jones PD, Schweingruber FH, Shiyatov SG, CooK ER (1995) Unusual twentieth-century summer warmth in a 1000-year temperature record from Siberia. Nature 376:156–159
Briffa KR, Jones PD, Schweingruber FH, Osborn TJ (1998) Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature 393:450–455
Cai Q, Liu Y, Bao G, Lei Y, Sun B (2010) Tree-ring-based May–July mean temperature history for Lvliang Mountains, China, since 1836. Chin Sci Bull 55. doi:10.1007/s11434-11010-13235-z
Cheng H, Edwards RL, Broecker WS, Denton GH, Kong X, Wang Y, Zhang R, Wang X (2009) Ice age terminations. Science 326:248–252
CMA (China Meteorological Administration) (1981) Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period. Chinese Cartographic Publishing House, Beijing. (In Chinese)
Cook ER (1985) A time-series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization, PhD dissertation. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson
Cook ER (1990) Bootstrap confidence intervals for red spruce ring-width chronologies and an assessment of age-related bias in recent growth trends. Can J For Res 20:1326–1331
Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, D’Arrigo RD, Jacoby GC, Wright WE (2010) Asian Monsoon failure and Megadrought during the last millennium. Science 328:486–489
Cook ER, Briffa KR, Meko DM, Graybill DA, Funkhouser G (1995) The “segment length curse” in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic change. The Holocene 5:229–237
Cook ER, Meko DM, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK (1999) Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J Clim 12:1145–1162
Cook ER, Woodhouse CA, Eakin CM, Meko DM, Stahle DW (2004) Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306:1015–1018
Crowley TJ (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289:270–277
Davi N, D’Arrigo R, Jacoby G, Buckley B, Kobayashi O (2002) Warm-season annual to decadal temperature variability for Hokkaido, Japan, inferred from maximum latewood density and ring width data. Clim Change 52:201–217
Deng YT (1937) History of famine relief in China. Commercial, Beijing, p 376. (In Chinese)
Dettinger MD, Ghil M, Strong CM, Weibel W, Yiou P (1995) Software expedites singular-spectrum analysis of noisy time series. Eos Trans AGU 76, p 12, 14, 21
Dong AX, Hao HL, Xiang J (2000) The analysis of several severe dry damages in historical time in northwest China. In: Xie JN (ed) The research on change and prediction of drought climate in Northwest China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, pp 93–96. (In Chinese)
Fei J, Zhou J (2006) The possible climatic impact in China of Iceland’s Eldgja eruption inferred from historical sources. Clim Change 76:443–457
Fei J, Zhou J, Hou Y (2007) Circa A.D. 626 volcanic eruption, climatic cooling, and the collapse of the Eastern Turkic Empire. Clim Change 81:469–475
Garfin GM, Hughes MK, Liu Y, Burns JM, Touchan R, Leavitt SW, An Z (2005) Exploratory temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Qinling Mountains, North-central China. Tree-ring Res 61:59–72
Ge Q, Zheng J, Fang X, Zhang X, Zhang P (2003) Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. The Holocene 13:933–940
Ghil M, Allen MR, Dettinger MD, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann ME, Robertson AW, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40:1003
Holmes RL (1982) Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-ring Bull 43:69–95
Hughes MK, Wu X, Shao X, Garfin GM (1994) A preliminary reconstruction of rainfall in North-central China since A.D. 1600 from tree-ring density and width. Quat Res 42:88–99. Available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html
Jacoby GC, Lovelius NV, Shumilov OI, Raspopov OM, Karbainov JM, Frank DC (2000) Long-term temperature trends and tree growth in the Taymir region of northern Siberia. Quat Res 53:312–318
Kang X, Cheng G, Chen F, Gou X (2003) A record of drought and flood series by tree-ring data in the middle section of Qilian Mountain since 904 A.D. J Glaciol Geocryol 25:518–525. (In Chinese)
Kleinbaum D, Kupper L, Muller K, Nizam A (1997) Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods (3rd edn). Duxbury, Pacific Grove, p 816
Li WH, Cheng X, Liu YD, Xia MF (1994) The top ten natural disasters in moder Chinese history (1840–1949). Shanghai People’s Press, Shanghai, p 350. (In Chinese)
Li Q, Liu Y, Cai Q, Sun J, Yi L, Song H, Wang L (2006) Reconstruction of annual precipitation since 1686 A.D. from Ningwu region, Shanxi Province. Quat Sci 26:999–1006. (In Chinese)
Li J, Chen F, Cook ER, Gou X, Zhang Y (2007) Drought reconstruction for north central China from tree rings: the value of the Palmer drought severity index. Int J Climatol 27:903–909
Liang E, Shao X, Kong Z, Lin J (2003) The extreme drought in the 1920s and its effect on tree growth deduced from tree ring analysis: a case study in north China. Ann For Sci 60:145–152
Liang E, Liu X, Yuan Y, Qin N, Fang X, Huang L, Zhu H, Wang L, Shao X (2006) The 1920s drought recorded by tree rings and historical droughts inthe semi-arid and arid areas of northern China. Clim Change 79:403–432
Linderholm HW, Chen D (2005) Central Scandinavian winter precipitation variability during the past five centuries reconstructed from Pinus syvestris tree rings. Boreas 34:43–52
Liu Y, An Z, Ma H, Cai Q, Liu Z, Kutzbach JK, Shi J, Song H, Sun J, Yi L, Li Q, Yang Y, Wang L (2006) Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature. Sci China Ser D 49:408–420
Liu Y, Cai Q, Park W-K, An Z, Ma L (2003) Tree-ring precipitation records from Baiyinaobao, inner Mongolia since A.D. 1838. Chin Sci Bull 48:1140–1145
Liu Y, Cai Q, Shi J, Hughes MK, Kutzbach JE, Liu Z, Ni F, An Z (2005) Seasonal precipitation in the south-central Helan Mountain region, China, reconstructed from tree-ring width for the past 224 years. Can J For Res 35:2403–2412
Liu Y, Linderholm HW, Song H, Cai Q, Tian Q, Sun J, Chen D, Simelton E, Seftigen K, Tian H, Wang R, Bao G, An Z (2009) Temperature variations recorded in Pinus tabulaeformis tree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling Mountains. Boreas 38:285–291
Liu Y, Tian H, Song H, Liang J (2010) Tree-ring precipitation reconstruction in the Chifeng–Weichang region, China, and East Asian summer monsoon variation since AD 1777. J Geophys Res 115:D06103
Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, Grosjean M, Wanner H (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303:1499–1503
Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1998) Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 382:779
Mann ME, Gille E, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Overpeck J, Keimig FT, Gross W (2000) Global temperature patterns in past centuries: an interactive presentation’, Earth Interactions 4, Paper No. 4
Mann ME, Rutherford S (2002) Climate reconstruction using ’pseudoproxies. Geophys Res Lett 29:139.131–139.134
Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni F (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105:13252–13257
Mason JA, Lu H, Zhou Y, Miao X, Swinehart JB, Liu Z, Goble RJ, Yi S (2009) Dune mobility and aridity at the desert margin of northern China at a time of peak monsoon strength. Geology 37:947–950
Meko DM, Graybill DA (1995) Tree-ring reconstruction of upper Gila River discharge. J Am Water Res Assoc 31:605–616
Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712
Pederson N, Jacoby GC, D’Arrigo RD, Cook ER, Buckley BM, Dugarjav C, Mijiddorj R (2001) Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: AD 1651–1995. J Clim 14:872–881
Qian L (1991) The climate of Shanxi Province, China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, p 464
Schneider T (2001) Analysis of incomplete climate data: estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values. J Clim 14:853–871
Shen C, Wang W-C, Hao Z, Gong W (2007) Exceptional drought events over eastern China during the last five centuries. Clim Change 85:453–471
Shi Y (2003) An assessment on the issues of climate from warm–dry to warm–wet in northwest China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, p 124. (In Chinese)
Tan L, Cai Y, Yi L, An Z, Ai L (2008) Precipitation variations of Longxi, northeast margin of Tibetan Plateau since AD 960 and their relationship with solar activity. Clim Past 4:19–28
Tan L, Cai Y, Cheng H, An Z, Edwards RL (2009) Summer monsoon precipitation variations in central China over the past 750 years derived from a high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite. Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol 280:432–439
Treydte KS, Schleser GH, Helle G, Frank DC, Winiger M, Haug GH, Esper J (2006) The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium. Nature 440:1179–1182
Wang B (2006) The Asian Monsoon. Springer–Praxis Publishing, Chichester, p 863
Wang PK, Zhang D (1988) An introduction to some historical governmental weather records of China. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 69:753–758
Wang S (1990a) Reconstruction of paleo-temperature series based on historical documents. Meteorology 16:19–23. (In Chinese)
Wang S (1990b) Winter and summer temperature variations during the past Millennia of China. Meteorology 16:15–20. (In Chinese)
Wang S, Ye J, Gong D (1998) Climate in China during the Little Ice Age. Quat Sci 18:54–63. (In Chinese)
Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, An Z, Wu J, Chen C-C, Dorale JA (2001) A high-resolution absolute-dated late pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China. Science 294:2345–2348
Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He Y, Kong X, An Z, Wu J, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA, Li X (2005) The Holocene Asian Monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic Climate. Science 308:854–857
Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Kong X, Shao X, Chen S, Wu J, Jiang X, Wang X, An Z (2008) Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years. Nature 451:1090–1093
Wen X, Wang S, Zhu J, Viner D (2006) An overview of China climate change over the 20th century using UK UEA/CRU high resolution grid data. Chin J Atmos Sci 30:894–904. (In Chinese)
Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Paeth H, Dietrich DN, Grosjean SM, Wanner H (2005) European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15713
Xu GC (1997) Climate change in arid and semiarid regions of China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, p 101. (In Chinese)
Yan Z, Wang X, Li Z (1993) An analysis of decade-to-century-scale climatic jumps in history. Sci Atmos Sin 17:663–672. (In Chinese)
Yancheva G, Nowaczyk NR, Mingram J, Dulski P, Schettler G, Negendank JFW, Liu J, Sigman DM, Peterson LC, Haug GH (2007) Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon. Nature 445:74–77
Yi L, Liu Y, Song H, Li Q, Cai Q, Yang Y, Sun J (2006) Summer temperature variations since 1676 AD in Luya Mountain, Shanxi Province of China, inferred from tree rings. J Glaciol Geocryol 28:330–336. (In Chinese)
Yi L, Yu H, Xu X, Yao J, Su Q, Ge J (2010) Exploratory precipitation in North-central China during the past four centuries. Acta Geol Sin 84:223–229
Yin S, Sha W (1999) Historical droughts in China. In: Li K (ed) Historical droughts and disaster reduction in China. Henan Science and Technique Press, Zhengzhou. (In Chinese)
Zhang D (1988) The method for reconstruction of the dryness/floodness series in China for the last 500 years and its reliability. In: Zhang J (ed) The reconstruction of climate of China for historical times. Science Press, Beijing, pp 18–31
Zhang D, Crowley TJ (1989) Historical climate records in China and reconstruction of past climates (1470–1970). J Clim 2:833–849
Zhang D, Li X, Liang Y (2003) Supplement for “Annals of 510 years of rainfall records in China”. J Appl Meteorol Sci 14:379–388. (In Chinese)
Zhang D, Liu Y (2002) A new approach to the reconstruction of temporal rainfall sequences from 1724–1904 Qing-Dynasty weather records for Beijing. Quat Sci 22:199–208. (In Chinese)
Zhang D, Wang PK (1990) Reconstruction of the eighteenth century summer monthly prcipitation series of Nanjing, Suzhou, and Hangzhou, using “clear and rain records” of Qing Dynasty. J Appl Meteorol Sci 1:260–270. (In Chinese)
Zhang P, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Chen F, Wang Y, Yang X, Liu J, Tan M, Wang X, Liu J, An C, Dai Z, Zhou J, Zhang D, Jia J, Jin L, Johnson KR (2008) A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 320:940–942
Zhang Z, Mann ME, Cook ER (2004) Alternative methods of proxy-based climate field reconstruction: application to summer drought over the conterminous United States back to AD 1700 from tree-ring data. The Holocene 14:502–516
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yi, L., Yu, H., Ge, J. et al. Reconstructions of annual summer precipitation and temperature in north-central China since 1470 AD based on drought/flood index and tree-ring records. Climatic Change 110, 469–498 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0052-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0052-6